Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240854 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 354 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NR THE GRTLKS. ITS ASSOCD WMFNT MOVED THRU OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, SOME MDT TO HVY CAME ALG WITH IT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS NOW MOVG IN FROM THE SW AND IS IN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM SW TO NE OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THE ERLY MORNING, BUT THAT SHUD BE ABOUT IT. THEN, A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE OVERALL. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS IN THE MRNG BUT THE SUN WILL BREAK OUT DURG THE LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN. WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW, TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST GUID INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL CLEARING TREND BY MRNG. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW (ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE CANADIAN EASTERN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING, SO PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY THEN, IF NOT SOONER. BEYOND THANKSGIVING...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TO FOCUS ON THE MID WEEK STORM. COLD AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT NIGHT FOR AVIATION. THE PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS TOOK LONGER TO MOVE IN, BUT THEN CAME DOWN FASTER THAN FCST. NOW, THE PRECIP IS MOVG OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED, BUT EVEN WHEN IT IS STILL EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR LATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE SYS MOVG OUT SOONER, PERHAPS CONDS WILL IMPROVE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. CURRENTLY, ALL SITES ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LCL LIFR. RAIN IS ENDING FROM SW TO NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU DAYBREAK. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK WUD BE OVER NRN AND ERN AREAS. THEN CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. A GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN WITH US ALL DAY WITH GUSTS NR 30 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. LLWS REMAINS A THREAT THRU THE ERLY MRNG AS WELL WITH VERY STRONG WINDS OVER 50 KTS ABV THE SFC. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY. THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE GALE WRNG WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREV ISSUED THRU LATER THIS MRNG, THEN A BACK END SCA WILL BE NEEDED, LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PD. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE P GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY WIND OVER THE REGION AND THIS, IN TURN, WILL KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO SCA CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT. FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. RECORD HIGHS 11/24: ACY: 72 SET IN 1999 PHL: 71 SET IN 1979 ILG: 73 SET IN 1979 ABE: 69 SET IN 1931 TTN: 71 SET IN 1979 GED: 75 SET IN 1992 RDG: 69 SET IN 1979 MPO: 64 SET IN 1931 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS: NOVEMBER 26TH: NOVEMBER 27TH: PERIOD OF RECORD: ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955 1.2 INCHES 1978 1874 PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898 6.9 INCHES 1949,1938 1872 ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950 4.5 INCHES 1978 1894 ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925 7.0 INCHES 1938 1922
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG CLIMATE...DRAG

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