Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 200136 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 936 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight and offshore by Tuesday morning. A secondary cold front will gradually approach from the northwest Wednesday before dissipating over the area Wednesday night. Bermuda high pressure looks to influence our weather once again late in the week. Another frontal system may affect the area sometime during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region continues to shift eastward. This will drive a cold front across our area later this evening. The bulk of the organized convection has moved off the coast this evening, with some showers and thunderstorms lingering in its wake due to some height falls occurring with the incoming upper-level trough. The dew points are expected to start lowering overnight especially in the northern and western zones. The remaining convection is moving through Delaware and into southern New Jersey this evening. The storms have shown some weakening as the move towards the northeast. Heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected as these storms roll through. A period of some showery conditions may linger behind the storms for a few hours. Adjusted temperatures, dew points, and sky conditions with this update to better reflect current conditions and trends.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Our area will be under the influence of an upper-level trough and associated cyclonic flow Tuesday. This will allow a cold front to push offshore early, however some lingering showers or thunder are possible near the southeast zones to portions of Delmarva in the morning. Otherwise, drying is forecast to work south and east during the day, with this most noticeable especially to the north and west of I-95. Despite a cold front clearing the area, it will be a warm day although much of the area will get a break from the humid conditions as the day progresses. High temperatures are an even blend of MOS and continuity. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Slightly cooler, but near normal temperatures, and somewhat drier air moves into the region during the midweek. A mostly dry period is expected Tuesday night through Thursday with a few exceptions. The frontal boundary that moves thru our region tonight will stall to our south tomorrow, then the northern edge of precip along the front may expand northward toward southern DE late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a disturbance tracks along it. Additionally, diurnally-driven showers may develop during peak heating Wednesday afternoon across the higher terrain of northeastern PA and northwestern NJ as a shortwave trough tracks nearby to the north. It appears that another cold front an associated upper trof will approach from the northwest Friday or Saturday, but timing is uncertain at this point. The front may also be preceded by a surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mex. Given the uncertainty for forcing and the overall summer-like pattern, the forecast includes a chance of t-storms for Friday and through the weekend for the entire area. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through tonight...As of 00z, an area of rain/showers is behind a departing line of thunderstorms. Some lingering showers and local MVFR/IFR conditions may occur for awhile in the wake of the line of thunderstorms. Otherwise, improving to VFR overnight although some local light fog is possible. Southwest to west- southwest winds diminishing to less than 10 knots. Tuesday...VFR overall. A few morning showers possible near and south and east of KACY and KMIV. West-southwest to southwest winds increasing to around 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Low possibilities for sub-VFR restrictions from stratus/fog late night/early morning each day. Southwest winds 10 kt or less. Friday and Saturday...Chance for MVFR or tempo IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms. SW winds gust to 20 kt during the afternoon on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled on the Upper Delaware Bay as winds have fallen below 25 knots. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday on our ocean waters. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Lower Delaware Bay until 11:00 PM. A gusty south to southwest wind continues into tonight as a low- level jet moves across the region. These winds will diminish overnight. The wave heights on our ocean waters should remain in the 5 to 8 foot range through tonight. A line of gusty thunderstorms is expected to move through this evening. While the winds should be below advisory criteria Tuesday, seas on the ocean should be about 5 feet. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Saturday...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA headline criteria. RIP CURRENTS... There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for Tuesday along the coast of Delaware and New Jersey. There is around a 7 second southerly wind wave on top of a very long period (around 14 seconds) southeasterly ground swell. This combination results in an elevated risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. The primary wave period is forecast to be around 7 seconds through Wednesday. However, the underlying 13 to 16 second southeasterly swell is expected to linger into the mid week period. As a result, the risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is anticipated to be at least moderate through the period along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .EQUIPMENT...
-- Changed Discussion --
NWS NWR and phone broadcast of the marine and surf zone forecast problems continue here at NWS PHI. Hope to resolve later today or Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Gorse/Meola Short Term...Gorse Long Term...AMC/Klein Aviation...AMC/Gorse/Klein/Meola Marine...AMC/Gorse/Klein/Meola Equipment...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.