Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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579 FXUS61 KPHI 281624 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1224 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move across the Middle Atlantic region today and then offshore tonight. Large high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and remain into Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area Sunday and into Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area Next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Currently...weak low pressure is forming along a stationary boundary just across the Delmarva. Light E-NE flow across northern and central NJ and into SE PA is ushering in cooler and more stable air into that part of the CWA, and most of the convection seems to be winding down as thunderstorms track to the north and east, with thunderstorms becoming more isolated. Showers continue, and are producing locally heavy rainfall. South of that boundary, across extreme southern NJ, DE, and MD, warmer and more unstable air is in place, and will likely be where any future thunderstorms develop. Cold front to the west, across western NY/PA, will begin to track to the east, and as it does, additonal showers and possible thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and into the early evening. PWATs will range from 1-1.25", so can expect heavy downpours at times. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... Any remaining showers end from west to east with a slightly faster modeled end to the rain than 24 hours ago. There could be some patchy fog, especially early at night in the still moist boundary layer with a light north wind increasing a bit late at night and trending northwest. FCST Basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A rather steady progression of disturbances in the extended period with a 2 day (or so) return period. Fair weather is expected for much of Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure across Canada ridges southward across the area. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the mid/upper 50s south and low/mid 50s north. Lows will be in the mid/upper 30s north and low 40s south. It will be dry and breezy Wednesday, but with wet ground conditions, fire weather hazards will probably not be a big concern. The first of two disturbances in the long term will affect much of the area for much of Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley Friday and then off the VA Tidewater area Saturday. Our region will remain on the cooler nrly part of the system. Occasional showers should occur much of the time. Depending on what computer model, the rains could begin Thu night. Temperatures should remain near or a little below normal thru the period. A couple snowflakes across the highest elevations of the southern Poconos are possible. Fair weather returns over the region for Sunday and persist into Monday as high pressure to the north ridges across the area. Temperatures will be a little above normal with upper 50s to low 60s for highs in most areas. Another disturbance may approach for Tue with the latest EC model having a soaker system across the area and the GFS much slower with the low and a fair weather day for Tue. We just have chc pops for now. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...variable conditions with general deterioration to IFR conds in st/fog by 12z in the light northeast flow. The southerly winds TAFS of MIV and ACY could remain VFR much of the day except lower in showers. Then considerable deterioration ACY and MIV late today when the wind turns decidedly northeast. Bands of showers and isolated tstms, some with brief heavy rain. light wind, mostly east or northeast at the TAF locations except southeast to south at KMIV and KACY at least this morning. Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and fog early...becoming VFR late. Light north winds will become north to northwest overnight around 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Wed/Thu...VFR expected. Gusty north winds Wed. Fri/Sat...lower cigs/vsbys expected. Showers. && .MARINE... Winds/seas will be under advisory criteria through Tonight. Showers/isolated thunderstorms through today, with showers ending this evening. OUTLOOK... Wed...Sub-SCA conditions. Wed night/Thu morning...Low end SCA near the NJ coastal waters. Thu afternoon thru Fri...Sub-SCA expected. Showers Fri. Fri night thru Sat...SCA possible. Showers. && .EQUIPMENT... KNEL appears to be reading 10F too warm the past several days. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Drag/MPS Short Term...Drag Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Drag/O`Hara Marine...Drag/O`Hara Equipment...

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