Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 200556 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 156 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COASTS BY DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20 MPH FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TODAY ADVECTING DRIER COOLER AIR SEWD INTO THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING DEWPOINTS. REFRESHING AIR COMING. TODAY...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH AN FEW SC IN THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VALUES OF TUESDAY AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, OCCURRING AROUND 4P! (FOR CLIMATE PURPOSES...IT APPEARS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAT TODAYS MAX TEMP IN PHL WILL HAVE OCCURRED AT 1AM TODAY-75) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. USED THE WARMER 00Z/20 MAVMOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AND OTHERWISE 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/20 NAM/GFS MOS WINDS/DEWS. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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CLEAR TO START WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HALTED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING AND LOWERING CIRRUS TO AC AFTER 06Z. NO FROST ANTICIPATED UNLESS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH 09Z AT WALPACK AND PEQUEST IN NW NJ. THOSE ARE TWO OF THE MOST TYPICALLY COLDER LOW LYING LOCATIONS IN NJ NJ. SO 50 50 BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THURSDAY`S WEAK LOW IN NORTH CAROLINA AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE CLEARING GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE FORECAST IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MAY SHIFT A LITTLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON FRIDAY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE WILL FORECAST FEW CLOUDS AND NO RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BRING OUR FORECAST AREA DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO, THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF BOTH BOUNDARIES REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, FIVE AND SIX DAYS REMOVED. HOWEVER, WE WILL INDICATE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. BEFORE 12Z TODAY...NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR CLEAR WITH FEW OR SCT SC DURING THE AFTN AOA 5000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT. TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN CIGS AOA 10000 FT ARRIVING AFTER 06Z. LIGHT NW WIND TURN NNE LATE. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM KILG, KMIV AND KACY SOUTHWARD. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH A WSHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND GUSTY AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AFTER 3 AM. SEAS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 4 FEET. TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY TO NEAR 20 KT. TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 20 KT TURN N-NE AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WEDNESDAY...WE`LL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT MINIMUM RH`S ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 28-35% RANGE. ALSO, WIND GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE AT THAT TIME IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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`LL POST SOME INFO ON NORMAL DATE OF FIRST 90 SHORTLY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/IOVINO NEAR TERM...DRAG 155 SHORT TERM...DRAG 155 LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/KRUZDLO 155 MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/KRUZDLO 155 FIRE WEATHER...155 RIP CURRENTS...155 CLIMATE...155

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