Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010728 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN RIVER VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST. HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL. HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 15Z, AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS PSBL MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT. OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS. FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG

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