Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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461 FXUS61 KPHI 251859 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Our significant heat wave will start to wind down tonight and Thursday. The upper level ridge to our southwest will gradually weaken and allow a back door cold front to track though much of the forecast area Thursday into Friday. The front will then push back to the north as a warm front on Saturday and Sunday with high pressure remaining in control into Monday. Another cold front looks to cross through the area on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The end is in sight. The slow break down of the upper ridge is evident in the much greater coverage of cumulus today compared to the last two days, with decent storm coverage now firing to our west across central PA. Some of these will likely make their way into our region, and some home grown storms also appear to be starting to develop, but generally looking at fairly scattered coverage given a relative lack of a true focusing mechanism. That said, with high DCAPE, any storm could bring gusty, perhaps locally damaging winds, so any dark clouds should be taken seriously through this evening. Later tonight, conditions stabilize, but advection of warmth and instability as the ridge gradually continues to break down and a surface front approaches from the north such that spotty showers and even a few thunderstorms may redevelop late, especially across northern areas. Lows will mostly be in the 70s, 60s Poconos. Front starts to take on a backdoor configuration (moving northeast to southwest) as it slides into the forecast area early Thursday morning, but may stall for a time somewhere near or just southwest of Philadelphia before pushing further southwest and enveloping the whole CWA in the cooler maritime air mass. This means we`ll have a notable northeast to southwest temperature and heat index gradient, with Delmarva still near heat advisory levels but locations further north and east likely falling short. For this reason, have added a heat advisory from Wilmington southwestward. With July criteria would`ve left out New Castle County, but since June criteria is 5 degrees lower, they needed to be included. Otherwise, the main weather focus on Thursday will continued shower/t-storm potential. With the backdoor front slipping southwest, severe risk will be less after the front passes, but the heavy rain threat looks likely everywhere. Highs will range from the 70s in the Poconos, northern NJ and along the northern NJ coast, 80s across our central swath and southern coast, and near or above 90 from Wilmington ad Millville south and west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Backdoor front pushes southwest of the region Thursday night. This should bring cooler conditions, but as warm moist air rides over the boundary, the chance of showers and t-storms will increase. Severe weather risk looks lower given relatively stable surface conditions, but ample moisture could result in heavy downpours. Lows mostly in the 60s, 50s Poconos and near 70 parts of Delmarva. A brief reprieve from the heat is expected on Friday as the backdoor front fully settles to our south and high pressure shifts across the Canadian Maritimes. Easterly flow will develop across the area, leading widespread clouds and cooler temperatures. The ridge aloft will break down and shift southeast, leading to westerly flow aloft will bring a few disturbances through the day and Friday night, leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Saturday, the front will begin lifting back northward and likely stall near the area, while another front begins to approach the area from the northwest. As this front moves into the area, several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area with the westerly flow aloft. This all will help lead to an increase of showers and thunderstorms later Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures return to normal or above normal again For Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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On Sunday, the front that moves into the area on Saturday will likely stall near the area, before lifting back northward through Monday. Multiple short wave/vorticity impulses will continue to move across the area, leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday through Monday. On Tuesday, a cold front will sweep across the area, leading to an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Once the front moves south of the area Tuesday night, rain chances will diminish through Wednesday. Temperatures through the long term period will remain near or above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...Mainly VFR with FEW/SCT clouds. VCTS later on with spotty showers/t-storms, but coverage looks relatively low. Any storm could reduce conditions below VFR briefly. W-NW winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...Mainly VFR. Brief period of sub-VFR conditions possible with an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the evening. A small chance also exists for some reductions to vsby in mist later at night. Winds becoming light and variable. Moderate confidence. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Spotty showers/t-storms possible during the day especially western terminals. Better chance at night with any storm possibly bringing sub-VFR conditions. Winds turning northeasterly 5-10 kts. Low confidence. Outlook... Friday-Monday...Periods of Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the period. Chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period as well, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines expected through Thursday night. S winds around 5-10 kts this afternoon will turn NW tonight and then NE on Thursday into Thursday night, increasing to 10-15 kts with some gusts up to 20 kts. Seas of 2 feet or less tonight, increasing to 2-4 feet by Thursday night. Spotty gusty thunderstorms possible, mainly this afternoon/evening and perhaps again Thursday afternoon/evening. Outlook... Friday-Monday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For today, winds will be light out of the south at 5 to 10 mph or less. Waves in the surf zone will be around 1 to 2 feet with a dominant swell around 8 seconds. This set up will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey shore and the Delaware Beaches. For tomorrow, winds turn onshore and increase to around 10-20 MPH. Seas slowly build as well, getting to around 2 to 3 feet in the northern waters. While the period remains 8 to 9 seconds, the onshore winds and increasing wave heights in the surf zone will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for Ocean and Monmouth County, NJ. Further south, winds will be a bit weaker with lower wave heights in the surf zone. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of rip currents for Thursday for Atlantic and Cape May County in New Jersey and the Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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With the New Moon occuring today, astronomical tides are higher than normal. Spotty minor tidal flooding was observed for the immediate coastline and back bays as well as within Delaware Bay last night (Tuesday evening). Given no major changes in overall weather pattern, expecting spotty minor flooding again with this evening`s high tide. There is higher confidence in advisories potentially being needed starting Thursday evening. While we get away from the New Moon, onshore flow will result in water piling up and more widespread minor tidal flooding for the coastal and Delaware Bay communities. No tidal flooding is expected within the tidal Delaware River or Chesapeake Bay.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Near record breaking heat is expected across the area through today. Yesterday (June 24), all climate sites set or tied either a record high temperature, a record warmest low temperature, or both. Some sites also set monthly warm records. Some sites had their first 100 degree day in over a decade. See the Record Event Reports (RERs) sent out earlier this morning for more details. One more day to go in this stretch of extreme heat, where some records could fall. Record High Temperatures June 25 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 98/1923 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1997 AC Marina (55N) 95/1952 Georgetown (GED) 96/1952 Mount Pocono (MPO) 91/1952 Philadelphia (PHL) 98/1952 Reading (RDG) 99/1943 Trenton (TTN) 99/1997 Wilmington (ILG) 98/1894 Record Warmest Low Temperatures June 25 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 74/1923 & 1976 AC Airport (ACY) 80/1950 AC Marina (55N) 75/1997 & 2002 Georgetown (GED) 75/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 69/1952 Philadelphia (PHL) 76/1909, 1976 & 2002 Reading (RDG) 75/1943 & 1949 Trenton (TTN) 75/1976 Wilmington (ILG) 75/1976
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055. NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012-013-015>023-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>003. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ001. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012- 015-019-020. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ012-015-019. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/Robertson NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...RCM/Robertson LONG TERM...Robertson AVIATION...RCM/Robertson MARINE...RCM/Robertson TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Fitzsimmons CLIMATE...PHI