Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 232215 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 615 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK ON MONDAY BEFORE IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE OLD FRONT, REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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THE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA AND THE SKY HAS BECOME CLEAR OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. CLEARING IS SLOWER S AND E WHERE THE RAIN ENDED LATER, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER, BUT OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. THIS MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES EARLY. THESE GUSTS WILL TEMPER THEMSELVES AS MIXING ENDS AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR, BUT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. WE COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MIXING TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE H8 RIDGE AXIS PASSING DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW- LEVEL WAA ENSUES AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SW. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT, TEMPS SHOULD DROP SHARPLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE PA/NW NJ AS WELL AS THE PINE BARRENS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPSTATE NEW YORK ON MONDAY. ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MESOSCALE ASPECTS WITH THE FROPA THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVE, BUT THE 12Z MODELS WERE OVERALL IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD SOME TIMING DETAILS TO THE FORECAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE PER NAM/SREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS) CONFINED TO THE I-80 AND I-78 CORRIDORS MONDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MENTIONED SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND TEMPS SEASONABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF ONE OR TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME TEMPERED AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, BUT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE COULD PICK UP LATE IN THE MORNING AS MIXING START AGAIN. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT BECOME SWLY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE ONCE THESE SHOWERS ARRIVE. SHOWERS LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING, BUT OVERALL IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHOWERS RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE... RAIN SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S, NOT SURE IF WE`LL SEE HIGHER GUSTS. REGARDLESS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...WELL ABOVE THE 30 PERCENT (OR LOWER) VALUES NEEDED FOR RED FLAG CONSIDERATION. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN SPS, IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MIKETTA SHORT TERM...MIKETTA LONG TERM...KLEIN AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA FIRE WEATHER...

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