Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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400 FXUS61 KPHI 192011 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 411 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the region through Friday. A cold front may move into the area and dissipate Friday night into Saturday. Strong high pressure then re-establishes itself into next week, but another cold front will slowly approach from the northwest late in the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front has settled across lower Delmarva. Weak low pressure may develop along it overnight as a shortwave moves around the base of the mid-level trof. Some drier air has moved in behind the front. Dewpoints will settle down into the 50s across the northern half of the CWA, but remain in the 60s south. Overnight lows will fall back similarly with low 50s expected well north, low 60s I95 corridor and mid to upper 60s across the coastal plain. With the lower dewpoints comes less of a chance of fog development. We do not expected a repeat of last night, not that is was widespread, but there was patchy dense. Any precip will be confined to the Delmarva in the vicinity of the front. The 12z GFS shortwave and related omega both look a little overdone, but with the support of the NAM, we will continue to mention POPs. The gusty NW winds this afternoon will become light this evening and go north. Toward daybreak they`ll go northeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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The mid-level trof axis moves off the eastern seaboard allowing surface high pressure to build across much of the forecast area. Temperatures tomorrow look to be the coolest of the week with mid 70s to mid 80s expected. The heat is on thereafter. Winds won`t be as gusty tomorrow and will go southwest during the afternoon. We will keep very small POPs in the forecast across southern Delaware during the morning hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Sfc high pres will be over the area thru Fri and there will likely be few clouds. However, conds will be genly pleasant but withe increasing humidity by Fri. Aloft, a large and strong h5 ridge will be parked over the mid-section of the country and will gradually shift a bit ewd. A cdfnt will move acrs the region later Fri aftn into Fri eve and bring probably the best chc of any precip in the next 7 days. There is still some uncertainty as to how much of the heat associated with this ridge we get and when. Latest guid now indicates the peak of the heat will be Sun and Mon, and the GFS continues to be the hottest of the mdls and got even hotter with its 12Z run. The ECMWF, which trended cooler last night has gotten hotter again. Some for of heat headlines may be needed over the weekend or into next week. The CMC a bit cooler. Temps look to be well into the 90s Fri-Mon, with dewpoints becoming worse by Sun and Mon. There is always the chc of some diurnal convection in a humid ams, but the guid differs on its extent especially around Mon.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Winds will become N/NE tonight diminishing to less than 10 knots. No restrictions to VSBY expected. Wednesday...VFR. Winds, AOB 10 kt, will become SW during the afternoon. No restrictions to VSBY expected OUTLOOK... Wed night through Thu...VFR. High pressure. High confidence. Fri...Mainly VFR. However, shra/tsra psbl with lcl mvfr and psbl ifr late Fri aftn into Fri night. Moderate to high confidence. Sat through Sun. Mainly VFR. High pressure. High confidence. A slight chc of diurnal tsra n and w on sun aftn.
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&& .MARINE...
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Tonight...Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. N winds will become NE overnight. As they veer NE, they could gust into the 15 to 20 kt range. Wednesday...Winds and seas are not expected to reach SCA criteria. The NE winds could continue in the 15 to 20 kt range in the morning hours. They are expected and become more easterly in the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Thu and Fri....Predominately sub-SCA conditions in S-SW flow. However, there is a chance some wind gusts near 25 knots on Fri, as well as increasing seas in advance of a cdfnt. Sat and Sun...Brief elevated wind/seas are psbl early Sat before subsiding to below SCA for the remainder of the pd. RIP CURRENTS... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents on Wednesday will be low at the DE and NJ beaches, but very localized moderate rips are possible along the NJ coast. We have had some reports of upwelling along the coast, where temperatures have dropped into the low 60s.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Kruzdlo Short Term...Kruzdlo Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Kruzdlo/Nierenberg Marine...Kruzdlo/Nierenberg

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