Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260911 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 511 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Our region will remain on the western periphery of an area of high pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through this weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts may approach our area from the north during that time frame, but should not make much southward progress. An area of low pressure moving through the southern Canadian provinces early next week may bring a cold front across our region by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A mostly sunny very warm or hot-90F day is ahead with a number of locations in our forecast area likely nudging 90F for the first time this year including KPHl, KABE, KRDG, KPNE, KSMQ, KGED: mainly northward from near PHL along and west of the NJT to KABE and KRDG. Wind this afternoon south to southwest gusting to 15 mph except possibly 20 to 25 mph along the northern Monmouth County coast-Sandy Hook. A midday ocean influenced south southeast sea breeze will eventually lower the near 80F late morning max temps significantly by mid afternoon. Otherwise, high temps in the interior around 10-14F degrees above normal. Pops withdrawn from e PA late today and it appears any showers should develop after 6 pm there, if at all. Not much lift mechanism despite weak instability burst. Fcst basis: generally a 50 50 blend of the 00z/26 GFS/NAM MOS guidance. Have checked all 00z/26 MAX temps tools from MET/MAV, BIAS adjust of these as well as National and Super blend and basically raised the highest of the warmest guidance away from the bays and Atlantic coasts by 1-2F. That means the 90 at KPHL, 84 KMPO, 90 at KABE and KGED as well as 89 at KFWN are all all fcst above the warmest guidance...in part due to the initial westerly isobaric flow. Heat Hazard: Today is likely to be the first 90 degree day of the season for many localities along the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia northward. It may be the start of a heat wave for a couple of localities. Right now our fcst dewpoints are low (50s) which limits the potential heat index (HI). While we dont forecast any HI exceeding 95 this week, the cumulative effect of 4 consecutive days near 90 may begin resulting in physical problems for the elderly and children alike this weekend, especially those with respiratory conditions and without the benefit of air conditioning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Tonight...A small chance of a shower or maybe even an isolated thunderstorm advancing eastward into our forecast area...toward midnight, mainly eastern PA and e MD. The POP Guidance was lowered toward the drier MET/ECMWF/UKMET guidance. Am not expecting much coverage of rain but if it does rain, it could pour...pwat increases to 1.7". My confidence on any rain occurrence tonight is below average. (00z/26 SPC WRF n/a but NSSL WRF was quickly reviewed). A milder night than what is occurring early this Thursday morning. Min temps around 10-13 degrees above normal. Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of 00z/26 GFS/NAM guidance except favored the drier 00z/NAM MET pop guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main story will be above average temperatures thru the period as well as some uncomfortable humidity levels late this week into early next week. The warmest days are expected to be Friday thru Sunday, with temperatures near 90. In fact, Sunday may be the hottest day, and we bumped temperatures up several degrees to near 90, but would not be surprised to see lower 90s. The main uncertainty will be the interaction between an approaching cold front early next week and an early season tropical/sub-tropical system modeled to develop in the Bahamas. The model solutions vary, but at least some moisture is expected to make it into our region by Monday, when there is a better chance for more widespread precip. Otherwise, there is a chance of diurnally driven showers and thundershowers Friday thru Sunday, particularly northwest of I-95. There may be a cold frontal passage in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, with the ECMWF most progressive with this feature. This would lead to a drying trend during this period, but the front may stay to our north, which would continue the chance of showers and thundershowers. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR with variable cirrus. Small chance of isolated MVFR VSBY near 10z vcnty KRDG or KMIV but dewpoints are so low that fog is unlikely. Light south to southwest wind. After 12z Today...VFR. Sct clouds aoa 6000 ft, mainly this afternoon. South to southwest wind should gust 15 kt this afternoon. Tonight...VFR sct-bkn aoa 6000 ft. Small chance of a shower or isolated tstm near 06z/27...mainly KRDG, KABE after 03z/27. OUTLOOK... Predominantly VFR during the day through the period, with MVFR possible in some fog development Saturday night thru Tuesday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines anticipated through Tonight. Southwest winds with scattered gusts 15 kt this morning become south to southeast this afternoon, also with gusts to 15 kt (except around 22 kt coastal Monmouth County). Thereafter a return to southwest overnight- this coming Thursday night. Seas aob 3 feet. Used the latest available more conservative NWPS guidance (25/18z run). OUTLOOK... Winds may gust to near 20 knots Friday through Saturday, but are expected to remain below SCA criteria at this time. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the period. RIP CURRENTS: We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents, with potential near moderate risk along northern ocean county and monmouth county this afternoon where the southeast southeast wind may be a little stronger. Since it will be another very warm day, and many if not all beaches are unguarded, swimming is not advised. yesterday there was a fatality nearby just to our north. Fatalities can easily happen at unguarded locations. water temperatures are not especially warm...close to 60F which is near or slightly below normal. If going to the beach today...be safe.
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&& .CLIMATE... The Philadelphia monthly average temperature continues to project only about 1f below normal... with this current end of the month stretch of above normal temperatures denting the first 24 days, nearly 4 degree below average. Also the Philadelphia month of May precip total of 5.14 inches ranks 20th wettest dating back to 1872. Atlantic City has had 4.87 is ranked #21 wettest dating back to 1874 and Wilmington`s (DE) 5.55 inches ranks 18th dating back to 1894. Finally, preliminary precipitation estimates for Allentown (ABE) are on pace for a top ten driest meteorological spring, in the absence of significant rainfall over the next six days. The average spring rainfall for ABE is 11.09 inches, with 5.84 inches as of 5/25. If less than 1.63 inches of rain falls for the remainder of May, ABE will be at least within the top ten. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Franck/Robertson Near Term...Drag 510 Short Term...Drag Long Term...Franck Aviation...Drag/Franck Marine...Drag/Franck Climate...Franck/Drag

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