Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 021009 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 609 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE VERY SLOW MOVG CDFNT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD ACRS THE REGION AND WAS LOCATED ACRS THE DELMARVA ERLY THIS MRNG. N OF THE FRONT, COOL AIR WAS IN PLACE WITH NE WIND AND DAMP CONDS. S OF THE FRONT, ITS A DIFF STORY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND SLY FLOW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA TODAY AND ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND OF THE STRATIFORM VARIETY. LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF PRECIP MOVG THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG OUR NWRN AREAS. THERE WERE SOME SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIP WAS LIGHT. STILL EXPECT A LULL LATER THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT THE FFA HAS BEEN DROPPED. WILL ADJUST POPS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE WAY BELOW NRML OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML AND FEELING COLDER WITH THE NE WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PRECIP ACRS THE SRN AREAS, MOST LOCATIONS COULD HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN DREARY AND COOL. WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. A ROBUST MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF OUR REGION EACH DAY. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR THE AVIATION SIDE OF THINGS WITH IFR/LIFR PREVAILING. IF WE ARE LUCKY, WE MAY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SPOTS, BUT THAT COULD BE WISHFUL THINKING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY, NO PROLONGED VFR CONDS ARE IN STORE. IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS, WE WILL NOT BE DEALING WITH ANY TSRA AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. N TO NE WIND GENLY 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. ALSO, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA AS WELL. THERE CUD BE A DROP BELOW SCA DURG THE MRNG TODAY, BUT CONDS SHUD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .RIP CURRENTS... DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND AND TODAY`S FULL MOON, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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