000
FXUS61 KPHI 160718
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
318 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that passed through our region during the night
will continue to move out to sea today. High pressure is
expected to follow for the period from tonight through Thursday.
Another cold front from the northwest is forecast to arrive on
Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to build back over
the eastern states for Friday and Saturday before moving off the
coast on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue across the area as a cold front moves offshore
this morning. In fact, the showers are lagging behind the front
after it passes through an area. A short wave/vorticity impulse
will move into the area through this morning and may help
enhance lift across the area into the mid morning hours, so
showers are expected to continue through daybreak and into the
mid morning hours. Once the short wave creating the lift moves
across the area later this morning, drier air will be moving in
across the area, and shower activity will diminish and move
offshore.

Behind the cold front, in addition to shower activity this
morning, winds are expected to become gusty out of the west to
northwest and could gust 20-30 mph at times across the area. The
gusts should begin to diminish around sunset for many areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Any remaining gusts from the day will continue to diminish into
the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are expected, and much
cooler conditions. In fact, many areas could be a degree or two
below normal low temperatures tonight. With the cool conditions,
areas of frost are possible tonight across northern New Jersey
and northeast Pennsylvania. Therefore we keep the previous Frost
Advisory, and have expanded it to a few additional counties. It
is possible that a few locations in the Poconos may see
temperatures near freezing as well, but we do not expect them to
be widespread enough for a Freeze Warning. There may also be
some patchy frost across the Pine Barrens across southern New
Jersey, however winds are forecast to be high enough to preclude
a Frost Advisory there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure located over the Middle Atlantic States and
vicinity will influence our weather during the period from
Tuesday through Sunday. No precipitation is anticipated.

A mid level short wave trough and an associated cold front may
arrive from the northwest on Thursday night. However, there will
be little moisture associated with these features.

Normal temperatures for the coming week and weekend in
southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern
Maryland are generally highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
Normals highs in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and
northern New Jersey are mostly in the middle and upper 50s with
normal lows in the middle and upper 30s.

Tuesday`s temperatures are forecast to be at the low end or
just below the the normal range. As the week progresses,
temperatures are anticipated to rise back above normal. Highs
should favor the 70s with lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower
50s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

A cold front is moving across the area early this morning,
creating showers and areas of MVFR CIGS. Areas that have MVFR
CIGS may lift to VFR for a period early this morning, before
briefly lowering back to MVFR later this morning. However, all
sites are expected to become VFR by late this morning and this
afternoon as clouds begin to scatter out and clouds lift.

Winds will become quite gusty through the morning hours and
into this afternoon. West to northwest winds are expected to
increase, with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. The wind gusts are
diminish late this afternoon and into this evening.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all the waters
today and tonight. Winds are expected to increase behind a cold
front that will move across the waters this morning. Winds are
expected to increase to 25-30 knots through today and into
tonight. Also, seas on the Atlantic Ocean are expected to remain
around 5-7 feet today, but may begin to subside some tonight.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ061-062-
     105.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ009-010.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001-007-
     008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Iovino/Robertson
Marine...Iovino/Robertson