000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...