Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 261408
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1008 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN
PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO TODAY`S FCST. THIS MORNING`S VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WE DID ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS THROUGH MID MORNING TO AFTN TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO MAX
TEMPERATURES AFTER COMPARING WITH THIS MORNING`S 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST, THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE
THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 TO 10KT. OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING ELSE SUGGESTS PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (DRIER AIR, CLEAR SKIES). THUS, HAVE
GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POCONOS TO UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND THE URBAN
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. THE ONLY WRINKLE TO THIS WOULD BE ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. AS THICKNESSES RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND AS WELL, AND RISE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
REACHING THE 80S AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN
MOVING NORTH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THEY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HOW
CLOSE THEY BRING THE LOW TO OUR COAST. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS IT
COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER, BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN, WINDS, AND TIDAL PROBLEMS. PLENTY OF TIME TILL WE GET
THERE, SO IT MAY STILL PASS OUT TO SEA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW IF ANY
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH SOME SITES GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS, RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SITES, AS POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW
PASSES BY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
ON THE DE BAY, WINDS (AND SEAS) SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL FROM THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE THAT THEY ARE NOW TO 4 TO 5 FT BY
LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT EARLY TODAY,
AND AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF A
POSSIBLE APPROACHING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EVEN THOUGH WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER TODAY, HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...






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