Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 272023 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 423 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure across the mid- Atlantic region will maintain generally fair and warm weather through the weekend. Moisture from a potential sub-tropical system to our south may reach the area by Memorial Day and interact with a weak frontal system to produce showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure and dry but continued warm weather are expected through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Daytime heating has resulted in the development of a fair amount of cumulus over our forecast area this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extended from the Poconos into the lower Hudson River Valley at mid afternoon. An axis of enhanced instability reached southwestward from the convection to the lower Susquehanna River Valley in Pennsylvania. We will continue to mention the potential for showers and thunderstorms in that area into this evening. Meanwhile, isolated showers continued to develop in Monmouth County and northern Ocean County along the New Jersey sea breeze front. The chance for isolated showers in that area should diminish during the balance of the afternoon. Once the sun sets, any lingering precipitation should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A light southerly wind is expected for tonight. Minimum temperatures should be mostly in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Another mostly sunny and very warm day is expected for Saturday. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be similar to those of today. A west to east axis of enhanced instability is forecast to develop from central Pennsylvania across our far northern counties. We will mention the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for that area. The remainder of our forecast area should be rain-free.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic region is expected to continue through the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical system now off the SE Atlantic coast. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will dominate at the start Sat night, with just a few evening showers possible across far N NJ and adjacent PA. However moisture from a tropical or sub- tropical system NE of the Bahamas is forecast to move N into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday with an increasing chance of showers and T-storms by afternoon. Showers and storms are forecast to continue Sunday night into Monday as a weak frontal system moves into the area from the NW. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches over the area so some heavy downpours and possible flooding can be expected. Clouds and precip will result in milder daytime temps on Monday. By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trof moves by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there is not much change in air mass with the with the assocd surface front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased chances for precip.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the exception of some MVFR visibility restrictions around daybreak on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to the west and north of our region this afternoon into this evening should not affect any of our TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon are forecast to remain to the north of our TAF sites. A southwest to south wind around 6 to 10 knots this afternoon is anticipated to decrease to 6 knots or less for tonight. The southwest to south wind at 6 to 10 knots is expected to return for Saturday. OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and T-storms.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southerly flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Saturday. Wind speeds will favor the 10 to 15 knot range. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms. RIP CURRENTS: There remains a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the Monmouth County coast into this evening due to a strengthening southerly flow. The risk will remain low for the rest of our coast.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...AMC Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/Iovino Marine...AMC/Iovino

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