Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231432 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front was moving slowly southeastward to the southeast of the Delmarva Peninsula today. High pressure is then expected to build towards the northeastern U.S. and remain over our region into early next week. A low pressure system off the East Coast could affect our weather mid week next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM: Beach patrol conf call...presuming no phone calls on increased RC... we will continue low risk today. 930 AM ESTF: adjusted temps, dews and sky a bit this morning otherwise little change to the overall forecast and messaging. Today...considerable cloudiness is still expected for extreme southern NJ and the Delmarva today with a possible shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny north. Seasonable temps and slowly drying dewpoints. Tonight...Clearing skies and cold air advection with nearly calm wind will promote below normal temperatures across the region. The one question will be if we will see any fog development overnight. At this point, have not mentioned it in the forecast as we should also see considerable dry air advection behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Thursday...Fair. Scattered light showers still possible late in the day in e PA with considerable afternoon cloudiness. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... This forecast was not changed since 330 PM yesterday due to the overnight thunderstorms. 500 MB: a -2SD trough begins the long term period in the Great Lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the northeast Friday-Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of tropical origins, having moved ashore along the Gulf Coast by early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages 2 to 6 degrees below normal daily Friday-Tuesday. Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z/22 GFS/NAM MOS was used Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z/22 GFS MEXMOS was applied Friday and thereafter the 15z/22 WPC D4-8 gridded elements of max/min T, 12 hr POP 6 hourly dew/wind/sky. Friday-Monday...High pressure shifts southeastward into the Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into southeastern Canada/Northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. This expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across the Mid Atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result in a shower north of I-78 Friday afternoon and there should be considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good weather is predicted. Tuesday...WAA overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential tropical remnant moving northeastward from the Gulf coast. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today... VFR with sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. Generally a light northwest wind with possible gusts 15 kt. tonight...VFR clear. nearly calm wind. Thursday...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. light mostly northwest wind may sea breeze along the coast. Outlook... Thursday night through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from the N or NW, possibly becoming N-NE on Saturday and Sunday. small chance of a light shower vicinity KABE/KTTN/KRDG Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... No headlines through Thursday. Northwest winds today may sea breeze later this afternoon. Winds become light north overnight and again northwest tomorrow morning before sea breezes are seemingly more likely to develop Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night through Saturday...Winds and seas below SCA criteria. Sunday...For now, no SCA headline but chance that northeast flow will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the S NJ and DE coasts Sunday afternoon (5 feet). Rip Currents... Low risk today for the formation of dangerous rip currents today as earlier elevated seas are slowly diminishing. Conditions are expected to improve (i.e. the risk should lower) through the afternoon. A northwest wind helps keep this southerly 5 second swell manageable. Outlook for Thursday through Saturday is currently indicating LOW risk. That doesn`t mean NO risk but sensible decision making for swimmers with ultimate safety, swimming within the watchful gaze of the life guards. Stay away from jetties/piers. Early next week... the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents may increase depending on the the actual development- building of 8 second easterly swells && .CLIMATE... KABE monthly rainfall is now 8.34 inches...still ranked #12 for the month of August. The record is 13.47 inches in 2011. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Johnson Near Term...Drag 1030 Short Term...Drag Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag Marine...Drag 1030 Climate...

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