Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240158 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 958 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions for through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast updates this evening were focused on hourly PoP/weather and temp/dewpoint grids for the rest of tonight following the trends on radar, the latest mesoanalysis and short-range guidance from convection-allowing mesoscale models for tonight. The convection continued to weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating and just about all of the activity has been free of lightning since shortly after sunset. The forecast was updated to shift the highest chances for showers along and east of I-95 thru about 06Z. Then, then shower activity is expected to shift toward the coastal plain late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the coastal low and upper low both move northeastward. Mid-level debris clouds from early convection around the backside of the low will limit the extent of fog development overnight. There is still a potential for some patchy fog, particularly in areas where it rained.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we head through the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer to the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days. Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday. Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR thru 06Z except locally MVFR in showers. Patchy fog could develop before daybreak Tuesday, especially at terminals where it rained. However, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will limit the extent of fog formation though. Therefore, kept restrictions mainly in MVFR between 06z-12z. IFR vsby restrictions possible in some of the more rural spots that received a wetting rainfall today. Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds will turn to the west for Tuesday. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
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&& .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled farther north for the Coastal Atlantic zones of southern NJ with seas subsiding to near 4 ft. The Small Craft Advisory was converted to a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas for the Coastal Atlantic zones south of Cape May with seas expected to remain near 5 ft thru midnight or shortly after in response to an offshore surface low. As the low moves north tonight and then pulls away to the east, seas will start to subside. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. RIP CURRENTS... There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches through this evening. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ454-455. && $$ Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...Klein Short Term...Meola Long Term...Johnson Aviation...Johnson/Klein Marine...Johnson/Klein

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