Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 060418 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1218 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST TO NEAR DELAWARE THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE SATURDAY OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OR NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT PASSES EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1230 AM ESTF: DEFINED THE RAIN YES/NO A LITTLE MORE BUT ESSENTIALLY THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. HEAVY SHOWERS SPREAD ASHORE BY 2 OR 3 AM, HEADING NORTHWEST FOR EASTERN PA BY 6 AM. SOME OF THE LIGHT RADAR RETURN CROSSING COASTAL NJ ATTM MAY BE CHAFF? FURTHER SOUTHEAST NOT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SE DE AND S NJ EASTWARD TOWARD DAWN. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING MAY TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED VORTICITY DISTURBANCES CIRCLING THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA TO OPEN LATER SATURDAY AND BEGIN MOVING TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND MAY STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT MVFR CIGS KACY/KMIV/KTTN TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. FRIDAY NIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. THE DE BAY SCA WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED AT 330 AM. WINDS JUST HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS EXPECTED. FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH ELEVATED SEAS. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET DURING SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AS NEEDED. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014- 020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ016. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1218A NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON 1218A SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1218A LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1218A MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1218A TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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