Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 272008 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move north of our area tonight, before a second low develops near New York City, then lifts to the northeast tonight into Friday. A warm front will lift partially through the area tonight, before a cold front sweeps across the area overnight. High pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, then builds south of the area over the weekend. Another low pressure system is forecast to slide well to our north Saturday and combine with the old low pressure across the Canadian maritimes, pulling a cold front across the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is then expected for Monday. A cold front may affect the area around the middle of the week as an area of low pressure moves into eastern Canada once again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A strong upper trof with associated sfc low pres and frontal systems continue to move east towards our forecast area this afternoon. Areas of rain and showers ahead of this system have been moving across the region, and some lightning has been noted over Delmava and south NJ. Temperatures over the higher elevatins in the Poconos have been slow to rise above freezing and the freezing rain advisory has been extended twice. There appears to have been some ice in the advisory area, mainly on above-ground surfaces. For tonight, the surfacelow is forecast to continue northeast through west NY this evening and then re-develop overnight near the southern New England coast. The associated warm front may be able to push somewhat farther north into southeast PA and central NJ before cold front moves through around midnight. In the meantime bands of showers will continue to cross the area this evening with a isolated thunderstorm possible mainly south of PHL. Fairly rapid clearing is expected after midnight behind the cold front as drier descending air pushes in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... For Friday, mostly clear and sunny conditions are expected, but with a gusty NW wind behind the departin low pres over New England. The air mass behind the cold front is somewhat cooler but sunshine will compensate some. There will be less of a north-south temperature contrast with somewhat warmer afternoon max temps north and slightly cooler south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, which should keep dry weather in the forecast. Saturday, the high pushes well to our south across the southeastern states, while an area of low pressure passes well to our north across the southern tier of Canada Saturday into Saturday night. This low is forecast to combine with the old low pressure system across the Canadian maritimes. Winds on Saturday could be gusty with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times. A cold front is forecast to pass across the area late Saturday night into Sunday. There will be a slight chance of showers during this period as the front sweeps across the area, but most of the precipitation may dry out as it approaches. Sunday night is expected to be precipitation free as drier air moves in behind the front. Winds on Sunday could continue to be gusty with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph at times. High pressure once again is expected to move into the area later on Monday and Monday night, bringing dry weather to the area. Another low pressure system is expected to move well north across eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially bringing a cold front across our area around the middle of the week. If the front gets stretched out too much, and all the forcing passes well to our north, our forecast could remain dry. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mostly MVFR conditions are noted at our TAF sites this afternoon, mainly due to lower ceilings. Generally MVFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening, although there will likely be periods of IFR conds as some heavier showers move through late this afternoon this evening. Winds from PHL and vicinity will tend to veer to the SE and S and may be gusty at times in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds at ABE/RDG should remain light from the ESE. The cold front should move through the area roughly around midnight follow by conds improving quickly to VFR and somewhat gust W winds. Friday will be VFR but wigh NW winds gusting up to 25 kt. OUTLOOK... Friday night...Generally VFR. Saturday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible for northern areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots. Saturday night...Generally VFR. Sunday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for northern areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots. Sunday night-Monday night...Generally VFR. Tuesday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for northern areas. && .MARINE... As of 400 pm, a small craft advisory will be in effect for all NJ and DE coast waters as well as Delaware Bay. SE winds will increase and veer to the south over the bay and DE coast as a warm front pushes north. Seas will also build up to 5 feet. Visibility will be poor in areas of rain and showers this evening, with possibly an isolated thunderstorm. A cold front will cross the waters shortly after midnight, which will shift winds to the west and end the precipitation. Friday will have fair weather but with gusty NW winds and seas 5 to 6 feet offshore in a short-period swell. OUTLOOK... Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue into the evening Friday. Conditions should drop below Advisory levels overnight. Saturday-Saturday night...Winds and seas may approach Small Craft Advisory levels during the day into the evening Saturday. Sunday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory levels. Sunday night...Conditions may increase to Small Craft Advisory levels behind a cold frontal passage Monday-Tuesday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054- 055. NJ...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...AMC Short Term...AMC Long Term...Robertson Aviation...AMC/Robertson Marine...AMC/Robertson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.