Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231512 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1012 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build build across the east coast today through early Friday, before shifting offshore later on Friday. A cold front is forecast to move across the area during the day Saturday. High pressure builds across the region Monday, then offshore and to our south Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, though precipitation may dry out before reaching the east coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A Very Happy Thanksgiving to all who read these discussions. 930 AM and 949 AM ESTF makes some minor mods to temps today and tonight and added cirrus skycover se of PHl as per satellite imagery and the GFS 250MB rh field. Raised gusts in the high terrain of the POCS and nw NJ to near 20 mph. Remainder unchanged. Today...Sunny except partly to mostly sunny s DE, far southern NJ and a portion of MD`s eastern shore. Max temps 6-10 degs below normal. Northwest wind may gust 15-20 mph band gradually back to west this afternoon. The high cloudiness to our southeast is related to the edge of the subtropical jet aligned newd along our se USA coast with 100 kt speed maxima translating newd through that jet. Tonight...clear to partly cloudy. Good to excellent radiational cooling. Calm or light wind. Forecast temps as of now are 2 to 7F below normal. May need to lower our current forecast by 3F at 1230 which will serve as the basis of our 330 PM forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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Sunny. Milder in the afternoon after a chilly start. Light wind trending south to southwest in the afternoon. Max temps within 2f of normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Fairly quiet weather is continues for most of the extended period through next Wednesday, with a chance of isolated showers this weekend. High pressure will be in place early Friday, before shifting offshore through the day. Dry weather is expected to continue across the region Friday night. A cold front is expected to move across the area during the day Saturday. Models do not have a significant amount of precipitation forecast with this frontal passage. But PW values do approach one inch, and there is some enhanced low-mid level moisture forecast as the short wave/vorticity impulse and cold front move across the area. So we will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast during the day Saturday. Northwest flow develops across the area behind the front overnight For Saturday night into Sunday. It is possible that some isolated lake effect showers/flurries could make their way across our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning in the northwest flow. As usual, the Poconos have the better chance of any showers. However, the flow from the Great Lakes gets cut off during the day Sunday, so any showers are expected to end during the morning. Temperatures remain above normal Saturday before the front moves through the area, but falls back to near normal or slightly below for Sunday. By Sunday night, high pressure begins to approach from the west then fully builds across the area Monday. The front then pushes offshore and to our south Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring dry weather back to the area early next week. Temperatures are expected to be warm back to above normal Monday through Tuesday as return flow develops. A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this afternoon...VFR with some cirrus se of PHL this morning and then possibly spreading in from the west late today. Northwest wind becoming west with gusts near 15 kt. Tonight...VFR conditions expected with only some mid to upper level clouds. Winds will generally be westerly at 5 KT or less, but could become light and variable. High confidence. Friday...VFR clear. Light west wind becoming southwest to south during the afternoon. High confidence. OUTLOOK... Friday night...VFR expected. Westerly winds Thursday- early Friday. Becoming southwest later Friday into Friday night. High confidence. Saturday-Sunday...Generally VFR. Isolated showers possible which may occasionally lower conditions. Southwest winds early Saturday, becoming west to northwest and gusting 20-25 knots Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate confidence on showers and sub-VFR conditions, high confidence on winds. Sunday night-Monday...VFR expected. High confidence.
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&& .MARINE...
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Although gusts near or above 20 KT will be possible through the morning hours, winds and seas are expected to stay below small craft advisory criteria through Friday. OUTLOOK... Friday night-Saturday...Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, although seas may be around 4 feet at times Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night-Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely behind cold frontal passage. Monday...Conditions falling below Small Craft Advisory levels.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Will reevaluate the projected monthly departures for the 330 PM AFD.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Drag 1012 Short Term...Drag 1012 Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Drag/Robertson 1012 Marine...Drag/Robertson 1012 Climate...1012

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