Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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464 FXUS61 KPHI 140910 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 410 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FRIGID AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS FORCED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR COLDEST OF THE SEASON. WITH THE STRONG WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS REMAIN. SO WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, SO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MOST PLACES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS, OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY. THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WATER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, SO FAR. HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECOD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. 2015-16 FEBRUARY 14 FEBRUARY 14 SITE COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW RECORD LOW MAX TEMP ---- -------------- ----------- ------------------- ABE 8 -1 IN 1979 14-1979 ACY 10 -6 IN 1979 13-1979 PHL 12 +2 IN 1979 14-1979 ILG 12 -4 IN 1979 13-1979 RDG 10 -4 IN 1983 TTN 9 0 IN 1916 GED 13 -7 IN 1979 MPO -1 -12 IN 1970
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054- 055. NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ007>010- 012>027. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001. DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON HYDROLOGY...IOVINO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO CLIMATE...STAFF

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