-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 171948
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG IT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF THE SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
TO OUR NORTHWEST, HAS/IS TOUCHING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
NOT PROVIDING A LOT OF LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT
SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE TAPPING INTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FORMING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DID NOT ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO THE GRIDS GIVEN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE IS LOW BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 14KFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE DRIER SUB-CLOUD
LAYER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING AND
A PART OF THE LATE NIGHT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH THIS SECOND BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. A BASIC
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND AGAIN TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HELPS WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. STILL NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED TOMORROW.

THE FLOW ALOFT, WHICH ONCE WAS STRONG, CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALLOWING FOR A MUCH SLOWER STORM MOTION. PWATS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH SO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN A
SHORT TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TIME PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT STILL LOOKS SLOWER THAN
IT DID SEVERAL DAYS AGO, SO RETAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED, WITH THE HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. LOOKED AT BLEND OF MAV/MET ON TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON SUNDAY BRINGS NEXT POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS INITIATING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST, GIVEN THE
CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PLACE -TSRA TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY IN THE CYCLE. BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE THE AIR
LOOKS TOO DRY TO CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO THERE LOOKS TO
BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS.

ANOTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS A COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ERUPTING ALONG THIS LINE AS WE SPEAK AND IF THEY WERE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THEY WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT RDG/ABE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAKING IT INTO OUR
TERMINALS TONIGHT SO THEY WERE HELD OUT FOR THE MOMENT.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH FOG ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS, THEN VFR. THE LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR LATE DUE TO SOME FOG.

WEDNESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BUT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...
RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT SCA CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST FETCH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING SEAS UP TO THE 4
FOOT RANGE, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER