Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 161242 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS. BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY. OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MORE LATER... && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38 FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION. WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP, AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS. BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH TIME. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ. OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND. AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN. TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. OUTLOOK... WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1 FT. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD. FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A RIP CURRENTS...840A

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