Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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686 FXUS61 KPHI 270731 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 331 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will settle over our region through the weekend, gradually giving way to a cold front, that is expected to move through our area Tuesday. Canadian high pressure is expected to settle over our region by mid week, while a persistent area of low pressure lurks off the southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 300 AM ESTF: Showers in northeast Pa were moving slowly for northwest NJ during the predawn hours and should move out of our CWA of northwest NJ area by 7 am or so. PWAT is building and so slow moving showers means torrents. Hamburg in Berks County earlier had 0.4 inches. Today...Confidence on where and when any showers and tstms is below average. Thinking mainly north of I-78 and mainly this afternoon. pwat of 1.7 inches and slow ene movement of 15 to 20 kt could mean the issuance of flood advisories for poor drainage street flooding this afternoon in a few locations...maybe Morris County is the focus? Otherwise very warm and more humid with a potential for D2 of 90F temps at KABE/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KACY/KGED/KESN. Depends on how much sunshine and how much non marine influenced flow. Best chance for 90F temps is near and north of I-78 possibly extending down to KPHL? Airmass is as warm as ydy with higher dewpoints. More cloud cover may make it more difficult to maximize heat potential but for now we have issued 90F Philly north. This again is above all available NCEP guidance which includes the Super and National blends which were biased low with respect to reality. EC also indicates says about the same as ydy. this would mean max temps 10 to 15F above normal. Max heat index today...roughly in the lower 90s...or about 5 to 6f warmer than yesterday...because of the higher dewpoints. South to southwest wind with afternoon gusts 15 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Any convection should diminish and end by midnight. Otherwise fair and mild. Looks like haze and/or patchy fog early tomorrow morning with the fog in your typical spots...northwest NJ and also vcnty KRDG and KMIV. Min temps about 10 to 15F above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main story will continue to be above average temperatures thru Sunday with high temperatures near 90 degrees, as well as uncomfortable humidity levels into early next week. Temps will remain above average into the middle of next week The main uncertainty will be the interaction between an approaching cold front early next week and an early season tropical/sub-tropical system modeled to develop in the Bahamas. The models continue the trend of drawing a plume of moisture northward along the east coast, with PW values nearing 2.00 inches, or 2 to 3 Standard Deviations above normal by Monday. With the approach of a cool front and weak steering currents aloft, there is the potential for heavy downpours on Monday. Otherwise, there is a chance of diurnally driven showers and thundershowers Saturday and Sunday. For Saturday, this activity should be focussed northwest of I-95, while Delmarva may see an increase in activity by late Sunday. A cold frontal passage is anticipated Tuesday, with a drying trend for Wednesday and Thursday. But with low pressure off the southeast US coast, this front may get hung up close to our region, which would lead to a more pessimistic forecast. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning through 12z...VFR with showers vcnty kabe ending by 08z. Light south to southwest wind. Today after 12z...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest wind gusting around 15 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage of any convection. for now we have prob30 of a mdt afternoon shower in KRDG and KABE. Tonight...VFR. Any evening convection diminishes and end early and think mostly north of our TAF sites. Light south to southwest wind. OUTLOOK... Predominantly VFR during the day through the period, with MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night. && .MARINE... No marine headlines through tonight. Southerly flow times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas generally 1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights were used for this 330AM forecast. OUTLOOK... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the Saturday thru Tuesday time frame. Some maritime fog is possibe Sunday night. RIP CURRENTS: Probably issuing low risk today. Again with warmer than normal temperatures, that seems to be one part of the recipe for heightened surf zone danger. Another part: unguarded beaches. The water temperatures were still only in the lower 60s. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Franck Near Term...Drag Short Term...Drag Long Term...Franck Aviation...Drag/Franck Marine...Drag/Franck is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.