Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280738 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 338 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS EARLY TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA AT 330 AM. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE THE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. THE DEW POINT IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY. BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH. SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS. MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV NRML AFTER SAT. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE. MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE. && .MARINE... THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SWELLS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12 TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD. && .RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN CANADA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

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