Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 301345 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 945 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER. EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING, ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD A HARD FREEZE. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ACY AND MIV UNTIL ABOUT NOON THIS MORNING. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA, AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.