Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010747 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AS WELL. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS THE NOW CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES QUICK PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST, THE OFF SHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH UNTIL IT IS EAST OF THE REGION BY MID DAY. IN RESPONSE, THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE AND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FURTHER INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, SO EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. AS THE CENTER OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL SEE DRY AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE PRECIP DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE WINDY OR EVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS, EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ON SUNDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE TWO, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS. WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35-45 KNOTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AT THE SURFACE, AND WE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY LEFT OVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PULLED TO OUR NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK, AND PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME, BUT NOT COMPLETELY. SO THERE WILL STILL REMAIN A STEADY BREEZE, BUT AS DAYTIME MIXING IS LOST, THE STRONG GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND NOSE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A PIECE OF MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA, OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT/DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO MOSTLY OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE SO WE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL SOON OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER AREAS OF RA. STARTING AROUND 18Z, SHOULD SEE CEILING HEIGHT INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH -RA ALSO ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MVFR (OR LOWER) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z. SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AT LEAST 15G25KT EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST AT KACY WHERE 20G30KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, BUT WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT ...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY ON THE NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND ON THE DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DE BAY AFTER SUNRISE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE BAY LATER TODAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY, THEN DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE AND GET CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DE AND CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES IN NJ WHERE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE (WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WELL) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE COASTS OF BURLINGTON, OCEAN, MONMOUTH, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH, ANY RAINFALL WITH HIGH TIDE COULD EXACERBATE THE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES. RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA. NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON

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