Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220614 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 214 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW CAN EASILY BE PICKED OUT ON A RADAR LOOP. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
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GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID- LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.
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&& .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR AND IN SOME AREAS, IFR, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE IS NOT IN THE LATEST TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE WINDS INCREASING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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THROUGH THIS MORNING...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. TODAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-454-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER

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