Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 301058 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 658 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area today. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward through the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts overnight have generally been around 1 to 2 inches. However, with heavy rain still moving through, locally higher amounts remain possible. For more information on any flood threat or rainfall amounts, please see our PNS and FLS products. Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to weaken as it moves slowly along the South Carolina coast early this morning. Tropical moisture associated with Bonnie continues to push northward towards our area. As Bonnie weakens and moves east, the moisture plume that has been feeding into our area will also start to push east. While we will still have showers and some isolated thunderstorms around through the day today, the latest model guidance shows that the best chances will remain along I-95 and east with out western areas starting to dry out. While it won`t be a steady and constant rain all day long, there will extensive cloud cover across the region and in areas where it does rain or thunderstorms develop, we could still see some heavy rain fall. Fog continues to remain a concern along the coast. While the rain moving through will eventually help to dissipate the fog, we will also need the winds to turn more to the west and moving offshore. Fog should start to clear out by late morning/early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... For the most part, the rain should be ending across the region. Areas to the east of I-95 may still see some showers into the evening but the threat of thunder looks like it will have ended. With Bonnie not moving and remaining to our south, we likely won`t fully clear out and shower chances will continue across out southern and eastern areas overnight. Expect showers to end by late tonight/early Tuesday. Fog may once again form across the region overnight. Cloud cover will remain across the region with some possible clearing over our northwestern areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Due to ongoing hydro operations, the long term portion of the forecast was not updated on this mid shift. We apologize but need to keep short term warning ops our highest priority. The long term forecast (day 2-8) will be updated in the normal afternoon update cycle. Meanwhile all our statements are up to date as of 6 am, including significant tropical overnight rains, which led to spotty flooding. See the climate section for rainfall ranking. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most. The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...MVFR/IFR conditions at the terminals this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have largely pushed north of the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this afternoon with the best chances towards KMIV and KACY. Due to the low confidence on coverage of thunderstorms, we have left the mention out of the tafs at this time. Conditions is expected to improve to VFR by the afternoon, especially at KRDG and KABE. However, KMIV and KACY are expected to retain lower conditions through tonight. Fog/visibility restrictions are expected this evening as winds become light and variable at the terminals. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms.
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&& .MARINE... We have extended the time for the Dense Fog Advisory until 2 pm today. We have also added in the remaining zones on the ocean, also in effect until 2 pm. With the water temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the 70s, fog is expected to continue across the waters through this afternoon. South winds remain light across the waters with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today. Seas will start to build but are expected to remain below 5 feet. The far eastern portions of our ocean zones may near 5 feet later today but are expected to remain below. OUTLOOK... Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri. && .HYDROLOGY... The primary Sunday night rains have occurred and our statements are up to date as of 6 AM. This includes local storm reports and public information statements regarding the rainfall amts which have averaged around 1 to 2 inches I-95 corridor westward; but we think with spotty 3+ in the NJ portion of the corridor as well as the Poconos. && .CLIMATE... Wilmington`s monthly rainfall now is around 7.3 inches which makes this the 4th wettest month of May in the period of record there. Philadelphia`s monthly rainfall now is around 6.65 inches, which ranks this the 10th wettest month of May on record. ACY only needed an inch of rain these last 2 days of the month to rank as a top 10 wettest month of May. Additionally, the 1.06 inch total so far today at Wilmington, as of 6 am, is just shy of the daily record (1.10 in 1983). Daily records began in 1894. Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 Finally, we are having to estimate rainfall at Mount Pocono due to a problem with the sensor. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara Near Term...Meola Short Term...Meola Long Term...Drag/O`Hara Aviation...Meola/O`Hara Marine...Meola/O`Hara Hydrology... Climate...

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