Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 282318 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 618 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SATURDAY...VFR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS. SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.