Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KPHI 300455
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1255 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area
tonight through Monday. A cold front will then cross the area
Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold
front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will
slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward
through the region tonight. Some heavy rain across the region has
already produced 1-1.5 inches in a very short time (we had 1.33
here at the office) and as a result, some localized flooding may
have occurred. Flood statements have been issued and will remain
in effect until the heavy rain threat has passed.
Model guidance continues to show an area of heavy showers possible
through the morning, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor.
Some fog may persist for awhile mostly along the coast of New
Jersey given higher dew points advecting over the cooler ocean
water. Earlier beach cams showed fog right on the coast in some
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
With the slower timing, it now appears that there will be more
precip on Monday, than earlier fcst. Showers and some thunder now
look to continue for a good portion of the day, especially for srn
and ern areas. Nrn and wrn areas cud see precip end durg the aftn,
with srn and ern sections most likely holding onto rain thru at
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remaining showers from the back edge of the system affecting the
area during the short term will be moving offshore Monday evening.
Pops will then decrease below slight chc by dawn Tuesday. Except for
some fog overnight...fair weather is expected. Low temperatures will
be in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with
above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in
the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the
shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered
showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of
moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression
Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn
Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most.
The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up
across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some
unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer
showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for
now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and
locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Tonight...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR through 06z
from south to north. This timing may be determined on the
intensity of the showers. The visibility will lower to MVFR and
IFR at times especially during heavier showers. Some thunder
is possible overnight, however the areal coverage looks low and
therefore it was not included in the TAFs. Southerly winds mainly less
than 10 knots, becoming light and variable at some terminals.
Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of
heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of
showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The
lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible
improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG.
South to southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range.
Monday night...Showers end from w to E, VFR conditions return.
Patchy fog possible late however.
Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed.
Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct
The earlier visible satellite images along with beach cams
indicate that fog is persistent over the NJ coastal waters
especially. This looks to continue for awhile given much higher
dew points advecting northward over the cooler waters, therefore
a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the NJ
coastal water zones.
The winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Monday. Seas are expected to build some and
could reach near 5 feet on the southern waters Monday. Due to
confidence being lower, wind below criteria and WaveWatch
possibly being overdone, will not issue a Small Craft Advisory at
Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may
reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct
tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri.
Locally heavy rain is expected through the night and Monday which
may result in localized flooding. This is due to an influx of
tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Bonnie, which increases
the PWATs to near 2 inches. Depending on where the heavier showers
and some t-storms set up, isolated locations may possibly see 3
inches of rain. The area of heaviest rain may set up near and just
west of I-95. While the threat of localized flooding is there,
the areal extent is more uncertain and therefore we held off on a
flash flood watch at this time.
Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy
showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts
between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event
There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase
to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA. PHL ACY AND ILG
only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank
as a top 10 wettest month of May.
ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874
PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872
ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894
ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922
TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865
GED 2.04 1984 por 1948
RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record
MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901
-- Changed Discussion --PA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
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