Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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666 FXUS61 KPHI 280717 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front from south central New Jersey through the Delmarva will drift south today as low pressure in the Ohio Valley heads east, exiting seaward from the mid Atlantic coast this evening. Large high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and remain into Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area Sunday and into Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area Next Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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317 AM ESTF: sct tstms in NJ should exit northeastward this morning by daybreak. Torrents of rain in stronger cells with possibly very small hail. Not expanding advisories posted last evening at this time. It is possible that the Dense Fog Advisory may need to be expanded westward in the 6 am fcst, but confidence on how widespread it will be, is low, at this time. Today...Murky again. Mostly cloudy. Fog and scattered showers especially north of the boundary this morning then possibly a tstm on the Delmarva this aftn where best mlcape of less than 800J. Weak speed shear so svr not expected. PWAT 1.25 so brief torrents of rain possible in any shower. Pls follow later PHI discussions and those of SPC regarding SVR potential. FCST basis: 50 50 blended 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.Temps were modified downward using the 2m temps from HRRR and NAM. Still, the temperature forecast remains a concern with the placement of the eastward- extending warm front again a complicating factor. Errors in these values are likely given timing of the rain cooling factor and where skies may thin to allow a little sun.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... Any remaining showers end from west to east with a slightly faster modeled end to the rain than 24 hours ago. There could be some patchy fog, especially early at night in the still moist boundary layer with a light north wind increasing a bit late at night and trending northwest. FCST Basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Canadian high pressure will start to push southward into our area on Wednesday and persist across the region through Thursday. While the system itself isn`t particularly strong, it should allow for us to dry out as a decent northwest flow is across the area on Wednesday. Winds will lighten up for Thursday with cooler air settling over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be slightly above normal on Wednesday and much closer to normal on Thursday. The next system starts to advance towards our area on Thursday. Low pressure will develop to our west and then move into the Tennessee Valley by late Thursday. AS the low continues to move towards our area, we will start to see cloud cover increase and showers will once again start to move into the area. Expect some light rain to develop in the vicinity of the approaching warm front The center of the low will cross just to the south of the region on Saturday, by around mid morning. The rain will end from west to east and we should see a little bit of clearing occur. However, there is not much of a flow behind this system and it may end up remaining pretty cloudy, especially for areas inland. Weak high pressure will again be around the region for Sunday and Monday. Models indicate that a shortwave may move through later on Sunday, which may trigger a few light showers. Confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...variable conditions with generally MVFR vsby gradually deteriorating to IFR conds in st/fog by 12z with scattered showers and isolated tstms. light wind, mostly east or northeast at the TAF locations. After 12z...IFR variable MVFR conds in st/fog scattered showers and a generally light east to northeast wind. Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and fog early... becoming VFR late. Light north winds will become north to northwest overnight around 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. Winds will be north around 10 to 15 knots, some gusts up to 25 knots possible. Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Light north winds... becoming east late afternoon. Friday...IFR or MVFR conds in periods of rain. East to southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots. Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions early in rain... becoming VFR late. North to northeast winds around 10 knots or less.
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&& .MARINE...
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Dense Fog Advisory continues for the New Jersey coastal waters north of Little Egg. Areas south may also develop dense fog this morning, but it is less certain at this time. Winds/seas will be under advisory criteria through Tonight. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms through today, with showers ending this evening. OUTLOOK... Wednesday...Northerly winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots late. Seas increasing to around 5 feet . A SCA will likely be needed as conditions near criteria by Wednesday evening. Thursday...Decreasing seas through the day. North winds becoming easterly late in the day, mainly around 10 to 15 knots. Friday...East to southeast winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible. Seas will build through the afternoon, exceeding 5 feet by Friday evening. A SCA looks likely. Saturday...SCA conditions continue. Northerly winds around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will remain above 5 feet through Saturday, starting to subside a bit late.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KNEL appears to be reading 10F too warm the past several days. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ013-014- 020-026. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag 317 Short Term...Drag 317 Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Meola 317 Marine...Drag/Meola 317 Equipment...317

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