Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 291543 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1143 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS COOLER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND, AND WITH HEATING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVEN SOME WARMING ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, WHICH INCLUDED A QUICKER RISE IN TEMPERATURES THUS FAR FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS THEN BLENDED IN TO ASSIST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE TO TALK ABOUT. DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED, MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS POTENTIALLY OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE. TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY BE S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TODAY, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON /HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS 3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL EXCHANGE. MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK. CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE. && .CLIMATE... WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK, NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE CLIMATE...DRAG

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