Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 011530 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1130 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAVE LED TO A THICK LOW CLOUD DECK AND COOLER TERMEPRATURES.A SUNNY SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY REGIONS IN THE DELMARVA WILL GO WELL INTO THE 80`S WITH AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO NORTHERN NJ STAYING INTO THE 60`S. ATTENTION TURNS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY. SEVERAL WRF`S THE HRRR AND RAP ALL SUGGEST NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE CHALLENGE OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WHERE DOES IT SET UP? OUR THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA NEAR PHL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NJ. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO EXPAND THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN INTO DELAWARE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHEAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S. PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION. TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM RDG TO PHL FURTHER EAST. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS HAS BROUGHT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS FROM ILG TO MIV AND ACY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN IFR AND EVEN VFR THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON STARTING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z FROM PHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-012>027. DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019- 020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450- 451.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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