Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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619 FXUS61 KPHI 310152 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 952 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture remained over eastern New Jersey and the Delmarva Monday afternoon. This moisture will shift off the coast this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will track through the region late Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday or Saturday. The remainder of the forecast period looks to be unsettled due to another approaching low pressure system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Not many changes with the 930 PM update. The band of showers that has been over the shore all day is finally starting to full shift off shore. A few showers have developed behind the main band across south NJ, but those should be mostly light and likely won`t last much past midnight. An additional line of showers and thunderstorms was over the western half of the region, just ahead of the cold front. This line is starting to fall apart as the cooler outflow takes over. Thus, we should see decreasing chances for rain through the overnight hours. PoPs were adjusted to match current radar trends. Otherwise no major changes with this update. The cold front is still on track to slowly slide east over the region through the overnight hours. Despite lower dew points behind the front, fog should develop across most areas tonight given the very wet ground. However, given the drier air moving in, do not expect widespread dense fog on land. Low tonight...mild with mid/upper 60s in most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will arrive across the area Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny across most of the region with some cloudiness across the Delmarva and extreme srn NJ. We will continue with slgt chance or low chance pops across these areas...since some of the low level moisture from Mondays system will not yet have exited these areas. It will be a warm day with highs in the low/mid 80s across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Overview...The period starts with a cold front exiting stage right in the atlantic, with another weak cold front well to our north situated west to east from the Great Lakes east to Maine. This front will eventually lift north away from the region as surface high pressure and mid-level ridging builds in. High pressure will be the main story Wednesday through at least Thursday, maybe into Friday. A cold front is forecast to cross the area on Friday or Saturday. For the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, a deep trough is forecast to settle over the east as strong ridging develops over the Rockies. Temperatures...For reference, normals for PHL are in the upper 70s and upper 50s. For the period, temperatures will be near or above normal. Depending on how deep and fast the east coast trof becomes established, the end of the period could transition into the below normal range. Precipitation...Small POP showers have been been painted in the grids for Tuesday night across the southern zones. Currently, dry conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday, but keep an eye open over the ocean to see if any stratus and/or fog develops and gets pushed onshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the week with the cold front. Then the mid-level trof is forecast to take over and provide the region with unsettled weather. Winds...Winds will become northeast Tuesday night and go east on Wednesday and then southeast before the frontal passage. Winds will go northwest behind the late week cold front, then southwest as the trof settles in. It could be a bit gusty on Wednesday and Thursday, especially near the coast. Impacts...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Many TAF sites will start this evening VFR, but expect areas of fog to develop across much of the region, reducing visibilities to at least MVFR and possibly IFR (especially for locations that have seen heavy rain over the last 24 hours such as KILG, KPHL, and KPNE). The fog should continue through much of the night. Visibilities should begin to improve between 10 and 15Z. Winds will be southerly or southwesterly to begin the TAF period, shifting to northwesterly by 12Z as a cold front moves through the region. However, wind speeds through out the TAF period should be near or below 10KT. There is a chance that a sea breeze could develop tomorrow afternoon, shifting the winds at KACY and possibly KMIV to southeasterly. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Tuesday night. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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The only significant hazard for the waters continues to the the areas of dense fog. The dense fog advisory continues over night for the coastal waters and the lower Delaware Bay. The moisture enriched atmosphere and the chilly sea temps will provide the favorable conditions for this sea fog. Conditions will improve Tuesday once a cold front crosses the waters and drier air arrives. Winds and seas should remain sub-sca thru the period. Showers are expected tonight decreasing in coverage late. OUTLOOK... Tue night through Saturday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected through the period, although a persistent and solid 3 to 4 sea on the ocean seems likely through much of the period. East winds could get gusty on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers are possible across the southern waters on Tuesday night. No precip expected Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Most of the heaviest rain has ended, however we continue to monitor for hydro concerns as even moderate rain over the areas that had the heaviest rain earlier today could cause flooding primarily in poor drainage areas. However, with the cold front entering the western portions of our region, the flooding threat will be decreasing through the overnight hours.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Kruzdlo Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Drag/Kruzdlo/O`Hara Aviation...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara Marine...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara Hydrology...Johnson

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