Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260440 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1240 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west and move through the region early Tuesday morning, before stalling near or just to the south of our area. This front will gradually lift north by the end of the week with areas of low pressure developing along this boundary.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Lingering showers were passing off the New Jersey coast from about Long Beach Island southward around 1230 AM. Meanwhile, a complex of thunderstorms was moving across the middle Delmarva. The thunderstorms were accompanied by downpours along with frequent cloud to ground lightning and localized wind gusts around 35 MPH. The thunderstorms should be to the southeast of Delaware by 300 AM. The sky should remain mostly clear over our northern counties during the balance of the night and it will be partly cloudy over the south. We are anticipating areas of fog to develop, especially where heavy rain has occurred. The wind is forecast to be light and variable. Low temperatures will favor the 60s up north and the 70s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
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The cold front is expected to slow down as it moves southward through the Delmarva early Tuesday morning. There is still uncertainty regarding how quickly the front pushes southward. Fronts tend to get hung up in the Delmarva this time of year and in this pattern with zonal steering flow aloft. Added a chance for showers and storms during the afternoon hours across the southern half of DE and adjacent eastern MD with the front likely nearby. Unfortunately, we won`t get much of a break from the heat tomorrow as post-frontal CAA progged to be minimal. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s across most of the area (except cooler in the higher terrain of northeast PA/northwest NJ and along the coast). However, it will be noticeably less humid across eastern PA and central/northern NJ with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Farther south, where the front gets hung up, dewpoints will still be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Afternoon heat indices should peak near 100F in the Delmarva.
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&& .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The medium range models are in good agreement keeping high pwat air just to our south as a sfc boundary stalls in the southern portion of the forecast area. Higher humidity values and a slight chance for storms will continue near the Delmarva. Heat index values in the mid 90s are still expected from Philadelphia southward. In response to an approaching shortwave, heights build on Thursday and 1000-850mb thicknesses increase resulting in temps climbing a couple of degrees warmer compared to Wednesday, with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. As higher pwat air returns...and shortwave energy moves through the region...widely scattered to scattered storms also return Thursday. The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian models are coming into better agreement developing a broad upper trof over the eastern U.S. into the weekend...bringing temperatures down closer to normal values for late July/early August. With pwat values still 1.5-2.0" through Monday, and weak shortwaves moving through the upper trof axis, daily afternoon and evening showers and storms will be possible through the remainder of the long term period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...Behind the evening showers and storms, winds will shift more to the west, slightly northwest, but remain under 10 knots. Patchy fog will develop in the more prone areas as winds go light and skies largely clear. Tuesday...Patchy fog early, clearing by around 15Z. Then VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Westerly winds around 10 to 12 knots through the afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible at times.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas will be just below small craft advisory criteria through tomorrow. Seas will increase from 2 to 3 feet to 4 feet in our coastal waters. Outlook... Tuesday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters through much of the week. Expect higher winds and waves in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms that become more likely at the end of the week. Rip Currents...A moderate risk for rip currents continues through thE NIGHT. Tuesday through the most of the week: with the Atlantic Basin continuing quiet tropically, unless we get a strong onshore flow...RC risk this coming week should be generally low. Tstms and pockets of chilly upwelling water may the greater concerns. There is some sign of colder upwelling along the coasts this evening.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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The last time the temperature reached or exceeded 98F at PHL was three years ago on July 18, 2013. The last 100-degree day at PHL occurred four years ago on July 18, 2012. Record high temperatures for Today through Thursday are below. Site 26th 27th 28th ---- ---- ---- ---- PHL... 101-1892 101-1940 100-1941 ABE... 98-1940 98-1955 97-1949 ACY... 96-2011 99-2005 98-1999 ILG... 99-1894 100-1894 101-1894 TTN... 99-1892 100-1894 101-1894 GED... 97-2012 98-2005 99-1949 RDG... 99-1940 98-1955 99-1941 MPO... 89-1949 91-1955 93-1949
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...99 Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Klein Long Term...99 Aviation...Meola Marine...Meola Climate...Staff

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