Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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255 FXUS61 KPHI 042227 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 627 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... RAIN HAS ENDED ACRS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIP MOVG OFFSHORE. LATEST GUID KEEPS THE AREA GENLY RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVE INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME DZ. THEREFORE, WILL LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOWERED AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS. THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE. OUTLOOK... AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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