Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 250709 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front over the southern tier of New York will become nearly stationary near our region thru Tuesday, as several waves of low pressure move along it. A cold frontal passage is expected Tuesday night, followed by high pressure from Canada, which will build into our area Wednesday through Thursday. A warm front may approach our region by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mild and dry weather early will be replaced by clouds and higher chances for showers from north to south today. The northern half of the area will have pops >= 50 % today and these tail off to the south. A front will be moving N to S today and cooler air will seep in behind it. Before the front moves thru high temperatures will reach the 50s over the north and mid 70s over Delmarva. Readings will trend downward once the front passes. Models are offering somewhat different solutions with regards to coverage and timing of showers. Confid in precip timing is rather limited.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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The front continues to drop southward across the area and there are better chances for overcast skies and scattered showers along with it. Temperatures will slowly fall through the night reaching the low/mid 30s across the higher elevations to the north and mid 40s over Delmarva. The precipitation could become a little ice at the highest elevations across the southern Poconos late tonight. It appears the the chances will be low enough as to not have to issue an advisory at this point.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Will be updated shortly.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions in most areas early this morning with mostly CI/CS clouds over the area. There could be a few patchy lower clouds or some light fog before dawn, but mostly good weather early today before a front moves thru and brings poorer conditions from N to S. Cigs will decrease as the chcs for rains develop this afternoon and persist into tonight. IFR conditions with rain and fog will arrive over most areas. Timing of the decreases is somewhat uncertain. Winds will shift to E or NE behind the front. The IFR conditions will persist into Sunday morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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Seas continue to slowly decrease on the northern NJ coastal waters. It looks like we will be able to drop the SCA flag for these waters with the 330 issuance. Seas could linger close to 5 ft thru dawn however. At 630 it looks like we will need another SCA flag for tonight and into Sunday with a NE flow behind the front bringing seas back up and gusts also should be around 25 kts. Looks like just the nrn NJ waters will need the SCA for now the Sat night period. Scat showers expected later this afternoon and tonight.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Drag Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/O`Hara Marine...Drag/O`Hara

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