Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 070342 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN EAST WEST WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW JERSEY BY NOON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. IT AWAITS THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE FRONT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT FRONT MAY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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1045 PM ESTF: TEMPS ETC EXCT. JUST ADDED WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN FROM EXTREME WEST DE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH E PA AND E MD TIL 05Z. WE DIDNT GET THE MARGINAL NEAR SVR THIS PAST AFTN/EVE IN THE DELMARVA BUT RCV 3 FF PRODUCERS FROM NW DE THROUGH E PA AND VIRTUALLY ANY SHOWER THAT OCCURRED TODAY WAS CLOSE TO MDT OR HEAVIER IN ITS SHORT DURATION. TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FCSTS OF THE PRIOR DAYS THAN THE FCST ISSUED THIS PAST MONDAY MORNING AT 330AM...IE 2-4F WARMER THAN FCST WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST FOR THIS PAST MONDAY AFTN OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. PWAT RIGHT NOW STILL NEAR 1.9 INCHES BUT SLOWLY LOWERS FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, DOWN TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. STILL IT CAN RAIN QUITE HARD WITH 1.5 INCH PWAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER-60S TO LOW- 70S AS DEW POINTS REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SETUP POCKETS OF FOG, NOT SURE HOW DENSE AT THIS TIME, WITH THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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AS ONE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT THERE IS ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON ITS TAILS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXISTS...PEAK HEATING, AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. PWATS START NEAR 1.8 INCHES THIS TUESDAY MORNING BUT END THE DAY DOWN TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES, SO WHILE ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS, RAINFALL RATES MAY BE DOWN A TAD. A HOT TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING IS EXPECTED AS THE PWAT DRIES OUT PERMITTING MORE AND MORE SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD EASILY REACH 90F IN PHL THIS COMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS 92F. WILL REEVALUATE HEAT INDEX IN THE 330 AM FCST. SOUTHWEST WIND WINDS THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EVENTUALLY, A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AT THAT TIME. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVES. REGARDLESS, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY. THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL FORECAST A RETURNING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AMD NOT SKED AT KACY DUE TO LACK OF TIMELY AUTOMATED TRANSMISSION OF METAR INFORMATION WHICH WITH IFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1200 FEET EXPECTED WITH PROBABLE IFR STRATUS BY 08Z MOST OF THE TAF SITES. 3-5 MILE FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT MAY NOT DROP BELOW 2 OR 3 MILES EXCEPT ON THE RIDGES OF THE POCONOS AND KITTATINYS IN NE PA AND NW NJ. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10 KT BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 12Z. SCT HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY E MD /W DE AND E PA SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ISO TSTMS ARE ON THE WANE. AFTER 14Z TUESDAY...AS THE WIND SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF RDG-ABE. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AT ALL SITES DURING THE AFTN. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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KACY DATA MAY NOT BE TRANSMITTING TO YOU THOUGH WE SEE IT INTERNALLY IN THE OFFICE. NO NOTAM.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/IOVINO 1143 NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1143 SHORT TERM...HEAVENER/DRAG 1143 LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1143 MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER 1143 EQUIPMENT...1143

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