Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR RURAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY. GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. && .RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...

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