Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281705 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 105 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING TODAY, THEN ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH/EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH. A WRLY/SWRLY FLOW OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SKIES CLEARED OUT FOR A LITTLE WHILE S/E EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FILLED IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED A BIT WITH THE ESTF. THE DEW POINTS WERE MODIFIED A BIT ALSO...DOWNWARD IN A FEW AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT. DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON A WESTERLY WIND. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST THAT MAY FLATTEN OUT SOME DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH VARYING AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH EVEN SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING TUESDAY. A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TO BE OUR AREA MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MAY DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT, HOWEVER IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW ACTIVE IT WILL BE AS MOST OF THE LIFT SHOULD RESIDE FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN FOCUS SOME CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY, DEEPER MOISTURE AND A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NEARING FROM THE WEST COULD RESULT IN A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM LATER TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN SOME WEDNESDAY, FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOW DURING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL LIFT, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND ANY EARLIER CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND THEN STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG IT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ATTM. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE ARRIVES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. AS DOWNSTREAM WAA INCREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH /PENDING IT IS PRESENT/ MOVES OFFSHORE, A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AS OF NOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN MORE MODEL VARIABILITY, WE BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CHC POPS FOR EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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&& .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOWARD CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY AND INTO THE WEST FOR TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR TODAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THEM TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET. DUE TO TODAY`S WAVE HEIGHTS AND THE EXPECTED WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ON DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TUESDAY...AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT MAY BUILD THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AGITATED TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...PO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/PO MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO RIP CURRENTS...

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