Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231945 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK, DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A LITTLE. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES AS DEWPOINTS RISE, THE FORECAST IS PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY, KEEPING THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY, AND SHOULD RISE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK BUT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE SEE INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...SKIES MAY BE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT SHOULD START TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OVERALL A FAIRLY NICE DAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE WILL OCCUR AND WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING STRONG, WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE AND BE WELL INTO THE 80S, ESPECIALLY INLAND AND NEAR URBAN AREAS. WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS MORE MOIST AND HOT AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR AROUND, WE WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A STICKY KIND OF NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO START PUSHING INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS AS WELL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT, BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WATERS. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. && .RIP CURRENTS... POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU! && .CLIMATE... **A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND LESSENING DOUBT FOR A TOP 3 WARMEST KABE/KPHL** UPDATED AT 510 AM THIS SATURDAY MORNING: THE FIRST 22 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THIS MORNINGS 330AM FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE FIND THE FOLLOWING. FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR SECOND OR THIRD WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004. FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. PROJECTING 66.5 OR ABOUT 6.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD BE 2ND OR 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 WAS THE WARMEST WITH 67.2, FOLLOWED BY 2012 66.1, THEN 1944 WHEN MAY AVERAGED 66.0. THE FOLLOWING WAS POSTED BECAUSE ITS LIKELY THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE OUR FIRST 90 IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLY A HEAT WAVE. NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER. PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...

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