Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 070542 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1242 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the northeast will give way to developing low pressure off the Carolinas into tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure nearing James Bay sends a cold front thru our area on Wednesday, sweeping the Carolinas low well offshore. The low pressure over James Bay will move to Atlantic Canada into Friday, while high pressure over the central United States moves into the middle Atlantic this weekend. A warm front may approach our region by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for all areas except Carbon and Monroe, Pennsylvania and Sussex, New Jersey. Snow/sleet has ended across the area, but with temperatures remain below freezing across these three counties, freezing rain/freezing drizzle will continue through the overnight hours. Elsewhere where the Advisory was cancelled, snow/sleet has ended, and temperatures have risen above freezing, so no additional freezing rain is expected there. The snow total grid has been removed, and the ice grids have been updated to account for these changes. Otherwise, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will keep a steady breeze across the area with the strongest winds across the coastal areas. Plenty of low level moisture will remain across the area, keeping clouds, along with scattered areas of light rain and drizzle through the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As the low continues to move out to sea, precipitation will end during the morning hours basically from southwest to northeast...and any remaining wind gusts (especially closer to the coast) will gradually diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Expect cloudy conditions in the morning...with gradual improvement from west to east as the day wears on. Northwest winds are expected around 10 MPH...perhaps slightly stronger along near the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures will continue to be mild on Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Models are in better agreement backing off on precip for Thursday however will hold on to a slight chance of rain due to increasing moisture. The long wave trough and attendant cold front continues east, pushing the cold front across the the region late Thursday into Thursday night. High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. A few snow showers occuring beneath the cold mid level trough and downstream from the Great Lakes may make it into the far northwest corner of the forecast area on Friday, mainly northwest of I-95-276-76 where the BTV Snow Squall Parameter values are the highest. Models are also in a little better agreement bringing precip in Sunday night into Monday. The cooler temperatures will continue into Saturday. Models are also in a little better agreement for early next week. bringing the next storm system across the region late Sunday into Monday. GFS thermal profiles support wintry precip initially with a changeover to rain Monday, while the slower ECMWF is much warmer, suggesting a primarily rain event. Given the antecedent cold air mass in place, wintry precip is plausible at the onset, with a changeover to rain. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. IFR conditions will continue with low clouds, along with scattered areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog. The light rain and drizzle should begin to taper off by sunrise. IFR conditions should continue through the morning, then a slow improvement to MVFR around noontime and VFR by sunset is currently expected. NE winds around 10 kt with higher gusts closer to the coast are expected tonight. Northwest winds in the 5 to 10 KT range are expected on Wednesday as the low continues to move out to sea. OUTLOOK... Predominantly VFR at all TAF sites through the period. Northwest winds may gust up to around 25 knots Thu night into Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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A Gale Warning continues for tonight for the coastal waters of DE and S NJ as well as the lower DE Bay as easterly winds strengthen to the north of the coastal low. A SCA continues for the northern coastal waters and for the upper DE Bay with gusts 25-30 kt possible tonight. 4-7 ft seas are expected in response to the strengthening wind field with the higher seas the further south you go. Although northwest wind gusts are expected to remain below 25 knots on Wednesday, seas are forecast to remain elevated, at or above 5 FT. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed for the ocean waters. OUTLOOK... Gusts over 25 knots from the northwest are likely Thursday night and Friday with some potential to reach gale force. Winds will decrease on Saturday below 25 knots from the northwest. Seas are likely to remain below five feet for the outlook period.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for PAZ054-055. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NJZ001. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ430. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Miketta Near Term...Gaines/Klein/Miketta/Robertson Short Term...Miketta Long Term...99 Aviation...Gaines/Klein/Miketta/Robertson Marine...Miketta

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