Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241933 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 233 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LEADING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S, AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. AS WE MIX THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTH, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST GUID INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL CLEARING TREND BY MRNG. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRAFT WITH ADJUSTMENTS AT 330 PM WHENEVER THE HIGH RES ECMWF ARRIVES. **WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR** 500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE SNOW. POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER. LANCE HAS D4-8 AND HIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED BY 330 PM AS THIS DISCUSSION. THE STORM... OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM. ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING... WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ). I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION. COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO 2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN. THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR. PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL MODERATE DURING THE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM. ALL TAF SITES HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHERE IFR CIGS REMAIN, THROUGH AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ACY AS WELL. AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING AND LIFTING, WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 KT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY. THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AS DAYTIME PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA. THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT. FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. && .CLIMATE... FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S. RECORD HIGHS 11/24: ACY: 72 SET IN 1999 PHL: 71 SET IN 1979 ILG: 73 SET IN 1979 ABE: 69 SET IN 1931 TTN: 71 SET IN 1979 GED: 75 SET IN 1992 RDG: 69 SET IN 1979 MPO: 64 SET IN 1931 RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE REACH THIS VALUE. ACY: 77 12/7/1997 PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL ILG: 75 12/4/1998 ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO) GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR) RDG: 77 12/29/1984 MPO: 67 11/29/1990 REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS: NOVEMBER 26TH: NOVEMBER 27TH: PERIOD OF RECORD: ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955 1.2 INCHES 1978 1874 PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898 6.9 INCHES 1949,1938 1872 ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950 4.5 INCHES 1978 1894 ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925 7.0 INCHES 1938 1922 OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ102-104-106. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG 232 NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 232 AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232 MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232 CLIMATE...232

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