Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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480 FXUS61 KPHI 190334 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1134 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY, THEN PASS THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO LOWER POPS EASTWARD FOR AWHILE AND FOCUS THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE WHERE A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST /POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER DEPENDING ON TRENDS/. THIS IS WEAKENING SOME WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED, HOWEVER SOME LIGHTNING IS STILL OCCURRING. IT IS HERE WHERE WE MENTION THUNDER. SOME HIGHER POPS ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS, HOWEVER SOME OF THIS SHOULD SPREAD EAST. THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED TO CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS /THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL AREAS AS WELL/. OTHERWISE, THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA. A COOL, STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE FOR EVERYONE, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. WITH THIS STABLE AIR IN PLACE, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST HAS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE INSTABILITY BOUNDARY AND MOVED INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH, OVER 1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP AND RELATIVELY COOL. SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD PUSH IN LATE OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT THROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THOUGH A BIT LOWER THAN TODAYS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR EXPECTED TOMORROW, IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH SURFACE HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF SHOULD BE DRY, THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR LOCALIZED FROST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT IN THE HANDLING OF THE WEAK LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS REACHING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WE WILL SIMPLY FORECAST LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BRING OUR FORECAST AREA DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS WE GET INTO LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO, WE WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, AND SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KILG. WINDS ARE EASTERLY, BUT MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE. TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEN WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... TONIGHT - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THOUGH SEAS MAY BE BE CLOSE TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE BETTER NE FETCH. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND SEE SEAS DECREASE A BIT WITH A LESSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .FIRE WEATHER... WIND GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE AT THAT TIME, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER FIRE WEATHER...

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