Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 272039 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 339 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH SUNSET. STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU 21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 451>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON EQUIPMENT...KLEIN

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