Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 082351 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 651 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move up along the East Coast tonight through Saturday night before moving up into Nova Scotia Sunday. A weak ridge of high pressure will be across our area Sunday before a cold front crosses the area Monday. A low pressure system will affect our weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another low may move towards the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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No changes to the winter weather headlines with this update. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for parts of Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New Jersey. Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for eastern Pennsylvania, parts of New Jersey, Delaware, and northeastern Maryland. There has already been up to 2 inches of accumulation on grassy surfaces in far southern Delaware, so adjusted the snow amounts up in this area. Otherwise, stayed close to the previous forecast. Radar trends continue to depict a persistent band of snow from the SW corner of DE to Cape May, NJ. For now, this has shown little indication of propagating northwest, but expect that to happen over the next several hours. An additional 1 to 3 inches is possible overnight, especially across southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. Models suggest that as we head towards daybreak that enough warming will occur to promote some mixing in this area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Snow will continue to fall across the region on Saturday as a low pressure system moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will be a heavy, wet snow and as a result we may see some power outages or downed wires in areas that see heavier snowfall. Models continue to show the best chance for higher accumulations in Delaware and southern NJ, where totals of 4 to 7 inches are possible. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for these areas. A good part of the region will see between 2 to 5 inches with lesser amounts towards the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for these areas. Mixing remains an issue, especially along the Delaware and New Jersey coasts will limit snowfall totals. There is potential for some banding to occur with this system. The models have some disagreement as to the location but there is some indication that it may occur somewhere near the I-95 corridor. The snow will continue through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, and gradually start to taper off as we head into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The last of the snows associated with the near/short term coastal storm will end across the area Saturday evening before drier air arrives across the area. Low temperatures will be in the low/mid 20s. A weak ridge will affect the area Sunday into Monday with the only precipitation across the area expected will be scattered snow showers across the southern Poconos. Elsewhere, skies will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will be mostly within a few degrees of normal with highs in the upper 30s north and low/mid 40s south/east. A low pressure system will deepen while moving across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The latest GFS/EC models are showing the center of the low tracking just north of the area, with the higher precip amounts across se NY and nrn NJ. We will advertise higher pops across the north and keep slgt chc or no (measurable) pops for srn Delaware areas. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the 30s north and low/mid 40s south, so any precip across the north will be snow. The low will strengthen NE of the area Wednesday and it will usher a surge of Arctic air over our region. Temperatures Wednesday will be much below normal with sub-freezing highs across the I-95 corridor NW and only 32-35 degrees in the coastal plain areas. A brisk NW winds will create wind chills in the teens in most areas and single digits across the srn Poconos. Beyond that, the arctic air will moderate towards the end of next week as a weak ridge affects the area. Pops will only be in the slgt chc range for the NW areas, but no significant weather is expected attm for that time frame. The 12Z GFS has a stronger low affecting our area next Friday while the EC has nothing. We`ll have plenty of time to watch this into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR conditions will continue at most TAF sites through this evening. Conditions are expected to deteriorate as snow moves in, first to KMIV and KACY by 03Z, and for much of the rest of the TAF sites between 06 and 12Z. With snow, expect IFR visibilities and ceilings (though for some locations, the ceilings may hover right around 1000 ft AGL). Light winds overnight. Confidence:High confidence on flight categories, low confidence on timing. Saturday...IFR conditions in snow, possibly LIFR at times. Conditions will not be as bad at KABE and KRDG, although they are still expected to see MVFR conditions in snow. Conditions will improve late. Light winds early will become northerly around 10 knots. Winds may be stronger and gustier closer to KACY. Confidence: Moderate to High. OUTLOOK... Saturday night...VFR conditions returning as snow ends from SW to NE. Sunday thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Few snow showers far NW. Monday night thru Tue night...Restrictions psbl with snow north/west and rain south/east. Wednesday...VFR. Windy. Few snow showers NW.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet conditions continue on the area waters through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the oceanfront Saturday. Winds will pick up out of the north early Saturday with gusts up to 30 knots possible through the day. OUTLOOK... Saturday night...SCA flag with snow ending from S to N. Sunday...SCA flag with psbl upgrade to Gale with NW winds. Sunday night...SCA. Winds and seas decreasing. Monday...Sub-SCA. Fair weather. Mon night thru Wednesday...More SCA psbl. Rain/snow psbl. && .CLIMATE... Record daily snowfalls for the date are listed below for Saturday December 9. Note...compaction and melting on contact may limit amounts below our forecast in some of our forecast area. ACY 3.5-1933 PHL 2.9-1942 ILG 5.0-1928 ABE 9.1-2005 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NJZ008>010-012>015. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ024>026. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NJZ016>023-027. DE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for DEZ001-004. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for DEZ002-003. MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008-012. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for MDZ015-019- 020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for ANZ454-455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Johnson/Meola Short Term...Meola Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Johnson/Meola/O`Hara Marine...Meola/O`Hara Climate...

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