Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280348 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1148 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the mid- Atlantic region through Wednesday. The high will move offshore for Thursday and Friday, returning our area to southwest flow. Another weak cold front is expected this weekend, bringing a chance of showers through early next week, especially if the front stalls.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Isolated showers still passing sewd through Sussex County DE. Otherwise, mostly clear overnight with patchy fog in the countryside as already seen at KSMQ. Light northwest winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Mostly sunny and comfortably cool for summer, maybe one of the last days to enjoy this for quite a while. west northwest winds winds gust 15-20 mph. Dewpoints in the 40s and max temp about 5F below normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term starts out with surface high pressure just off the mid-Atlantic coast and associated fairly pleasant weather. However as the high moves farther offshore and low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, a more typical summertime SW flow will set up over the region. This in turn will cause increasing heat and humidity over the forecast area through the end of the week and into the weekend. At this point it appears that Saturday may be the most uncomfortable day with heat indices reaching the mid 90s along the I-95 urban corridor. Along with more heat and humidity will be gradually increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For Thursday and Friday it looks like any precip should remain well to the northwest of PHL. By Saturday an upper-level trof and associated cold front are forecast to approach the mid-Atlantic and also a surface trof is forecast to develop from eastern PA south to near the Chesapeake Bay. Enhanced low-level convergence is expected to result in more widespread afternoon convection on Saturday. For Sunday and beyond the forecast becomes more cloudy, as the models seem to disagree on whether a surface cold front can push through our area or whether it will stall out. Given the uncertainty, the forecast maintains at least a slight chance for showers/t-storms through early next week. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above normal at that time. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through Wednesday....VFR. few or sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. west northwest wind gust 15 kts. Wednesday night...VFR. Broken cirrus probably arrives toward dawn Thursday. light southwest wind. OUTLOOK... Thursday and Friday...VFR conditions expected. Southwest winds gusting up to 20 kt in the afternoon both days. Saturday and Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions but lower at times in scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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No headlines through Wednesday night. northwest wind gust 15-20 kt at times today becomes south to southwest late Wednesday afternoon and continues tonight. OUTLOOK... Thursday and Friday...SCA conditions may develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday due to increasing SW winds and building seas. Saturday and Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to be somewhat below SCA levels. RIP CURRENTS... The forecast is for a low risk of rip currents for Wednesday. However, southwest winds will increase to around 15 kts with higher gusts by late afternoon. With a 9-second period from a southeasterly direction, this may increase the rip current risk level, especially on the New Jersey coast.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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We will finish off the marginally warmer than normal month of June temperature assessment (except KMPO).
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...AMC Near Term...CMS/Meola Short Term...CMS Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/CMS/Meola Marine...AMC/CMS Climate...Drag 1147PM

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