Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231909 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will pass to the south and east of our area tonight, followed by weak high pressure for Wednesday. Another system develops over the Ohio Valley affecting the mid Atlantic states Wednesday night through early Friday. Weak high pressure returns for Saturday with yet another low pressure forecast to affect the region for Sunday or Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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An email briefing with a coastal flood graphic will post by 315 PM this afternoon. It highlights tidal inundation flood potential for the Wed-Thu evening high tide cycles on the Atlantic coasts of DE and NJ. The next briefing of either a full scale package or email will post around 3 PM Wednesday, incorporating not only the minor to possibly moderate coastal flood threat and associated products but also a possible QLCS event for se PA/ the Delmarva/s NJ late Thursday. Isolated showers may be drying into sprinkles as this is written near and sw of PHL. Otherwise sprinkles are departing se DE. Tonight: Low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will continue to slide northeast, with showers along the coasts but chancey for e PA/nNJ late tonight. northeast wind. This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z/23 GFS/NAM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Wednesday...scattered leftover showers possible in the morning but it should dry out and be a decent afternoon everywhere. Northeast wind becomes southeast in the afternoon. This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z/23 GFS/NAM.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday night and Thursday...Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move northeast on Thursday. Another low forms along the cold frontal boundary as it nears our area, and will cross our area later Thursday. Rain will start to overspread the region late Wednesday night and continue through much of Thursday. Marginal instability is noted and we continue to mention the chance for convection across the area. With PWAT`s once again rising up around 1.5-1.7 inches, we have the potential for moderate to heavy rain. With the wet period we have had of late, we will need to continue to monitor any heavy rain threat. Friday...Some showers possible Friday, mainly early and across the northern half of our forecast area. Overall, it should start to clear out across our area. Although, a slight cool down can be expected in the westerly flow. Saturday...High pressure will build in for Saturday and it should be a great start to the holiday weekend. A shortwave moves through the mid levels and across our area Saturday afternoon/evening. This may spark off a few light showers, mainly across the northern areas. Sunday and Monday...The rest of the holiday weekend looks unsettled as another low pressure system develops and heads towards the Mid- Atlantic. A chance for some showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible. A cooler day on Sunday with highs only into the low to mid- 70s but warming is expected for Monday, with highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through tonight...VFR lowering CIGS with potential MVFR Conds in showers KACY/KMIV late at night while any period of showers elsewhere should not lower conditions to MVFR. Northeast wind, may gust 20 kt ACY. Wednesday...VFR cigs inn the morning and then sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft in the aftn. MVFR/IFR conditions possible early in the day, mainly at KMIV/KACY. northeast wind become southeast in the afternoon. max gusts 15 kt. Outlook... Wednesday night and Thursday...Deteriorating conditions as rain moves into the area. VFR conditions with periods of MVFR/IFR in showers/thunderstorms. Easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots becoming south to southeast around 10 knots or less late. Friday...Improving conditions with a return to VFR expected. Showers possible early. West winds around 10 to 15 knots. Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA continues DE Atlc waters late tonight and now extended through the day tomorrow. SCA added for the NJ waters, primarily there for hazardous 5 ft seas. There is a chance the guidance might be a foot too high but I had to issue since our fcst is for 4 to 6 ft. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...Seas are expected to build in the prolonged easterly flow. Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Improving conditions on the waters through Friday as seas start to subside and winds diminish. Saturday...Both winds and waves are expected to stay below SCA criteria.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... After rain amounts over 3 inches in some places across south Jersey yesterday, levels for many creek and rivers on the coastal Plains were slowing their rises or receding. At this time, all remain below bankfull and flood stages, but we continue to monitor this area. Models have trended further southeast and later with heavy rain today. Thus, though these areas will likely see additional rain late today, we are expecting generally light rain amounts (near or below one quarter inch). A wet pattern looks to continue for much of the week. The next period of heavy rain could come as early as Wednesday night into Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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CFW for minor coastal flooding issued for the Wednesday evening high tide cycle. A CF Watch may be needed for the Thursday evening high tide cycle for Monmouth/Ocean and Middlesex counties but that wont be issued, if at all, until sometime Wednesday. This afternoons issuance is also appended to a blast email for Em`s including an image with a followup Wednesday around or shortly after 3 Pm. Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring late this week. The new moon cycle on Thursday, combined with a possible prolonged easterly flow, we will probably see some of our coastal sites exceed minor tidal flooding levels during the Wednesday and Thursday evening tide cycles. There is also a small chance that we could reach moderate levels in a few spots.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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ACY is #6 wettest May on record with its 6.07. The record there for May is 8.80 set in 1948....POR back to 1874. Monthly avg temps should end up within .7 degrees of where they are now, possibly edging on the warmer side of the current departures as seen in our climate data ending the 22nd.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for NJZ012>014-020>027. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ454-455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag 307 Short Term...Drag 307 Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Meola 307 Marine...Drag/Meola 307 Hydrology...307 Tides/Coastal Flooding...307 Climate...

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