Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 251435 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1035 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AT MID-MORNING, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA. THERE WAS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN VA, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, AS POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR A SHORT TIME INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN EASTERN MD SHORE ZONES. ELSEWHERE, WE DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN PA, SOME DRIER AIR IS ALREADY ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE 50S. WE USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT MAXIMUM TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR, REACHING MOSTLY INTO THE 80S FOR THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN AREAS AND HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 60S REMAIN TO THE SOUTH/EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THRU. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, YIELDING PLEASANT LATER SUMMER WX- NEAR NORMAL TEMPS, LOW DEWPOINTS AND MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/ NORTHWEST NJ DURING PEAK HEATING ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF TWO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WX WITH THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE AN ENHANCEMENT TO OUR DIURNAL CU FIELD. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR LEADING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM MIDWEST TROUGH TO REACH OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOWING UP IN THE 00Z GFS, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NON-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND PROLONGS THE PROSPECTS OF A DRY FORECAST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL SATURDAY-MONDAY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A 50-50 BLEND OF 00Z WPC AND SUPERBLEND, WHICH WASHES OUT THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH NJ AND THE DELMARVA, MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR FAR EASTERN NJ AS THE FRONT EDGES OFFSHORE, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME FOR KACY/KMIV. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SKC EXPECTED AREA- WIDE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
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&& .MARINE...
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SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY STALL ALONG THE SHORE...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND SHIFT MAY OCCUR LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS BOTH THIS MORNING (BAY AND COAST) AND THIS AFTERNOON (COAST ONLY). SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS SRN DEL BAY. TONIGHT...WRLY/NWRLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WX.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY/TONIGHT FOR NJ AND A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN NEAR TERM...KLINE SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...KLEIN AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA

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