Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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342 FXUS61 KPHI 201953 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will push through the Delmarva tonight. Then, high pressure will build into the area Thursday night and Friday. A cold front will cross the region and dissipate Friday night into Saturday. Strong high pressure will then re-establishes itself into next week, but another cold front will slowly approach from the northwest by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure will build over the region tonight. This will result in clear skies with light winds. Temperatures will likely cool off fairly quickly this evening with lows in the Pine Barrens and in valleys across northwestern portions of the region. Temperatures will likely fall a few degrees below what model guidance is showing for tonight in those areas. Some patchy fog can not be ruled out for a hour or two just before sunrise. However, it would be very shallow dissipating rapidly by sunrise. Will leave fog out of the grids at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure will gradually move offshore. It will still be close enough for another mostly sunny day across the region. This will also mean a change to more southwesterly winds which will increase the heat and humidity. Modeled boundary layer temperatures and statistical data show highs right around or just under 90 for most of the region on Thursday. An afternoon seabreeze could also occur as well, cooling the shore off by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pres and heat will be the main wx features thru the extendd pd. thu night starts dry with high pres off the cst. fri am will remain dry, but durg fri a cdfnt will approach from the w and cross the region durg fri aftn and eve. expect shwrs and tstms to develop, especially n and w. ltst guid suggests less areal coverage, but there is some disagreement as to how far s the tstms may actually reach. spc has the nrn 2/3s of the area in mrgnl risk on fri with gusty wind and hail being the greatest risks in an increasingly hot and moist ams. by sat, the heat really gets turned up and continues into mon and psbly tue. a cdfnt will cross the area mon night, but will likely not do much to cool things down on mon as they will area too late in the day. shwrs and tstms will accompany the front. temps shud easily hit the mid 90s Sat thru Tue, with heat index values around 100 degrees Sat and sun and 105 degrees on Mon, then 95 to 100 on Tue. Heat headline will likely be needed for at least a portion of this period and may be initiated as soon as Thursday. The guid differs by a few degrees Sun and Mon and the dew points can make a world of difference but no matter how you look at it is going to be hot and uncomfortable. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR through Thursday. Two main points of discussion. First, A narrow window for patchy fog is present from about 09-10z Thursday morning just before sunrise. Right now fog formation is not likely given the available data but it can not be ruled out. A Seabreeze could form and change the wind direction for a short window in the afternoon around 19z potentially impacting ILG and ACY. Winds will be under 10 knots, more variable tonight then from the southwest on Thursday. OUTLOOK... Thu night...VFR. High confidence. Fri-Fri night...Generally VFR. A chance of shra/tsra, especially n and w which may briefly lead to MVFR/IFR. Gusty southwest winds 15-20 knots. CFP. Mdt to high confidence. Sat-Sun...VFR. High Pressure. High Confidence. Mon...Mainly VFR. A cdfnt will approach from the W durg the day and could trigger some shra/tsra durg the aftn, which cud lead to some MVFR/IFR, especially n and w. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Seas are expected to remain around 2 feet through Thursday. Any wind gusts will be under 15 knots more variable tonight then from the southwest on Thursday. OUTLOOK... Thu night...No marine headlines anticipated. Fri-Fri night...SCA conds psbl with increasing winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Sat-Mon...No marine headlines anticipated. RIP CURRENTS... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents through Thursday will be low at the DE and NJ beaches, but very localized moderate rips are possible, especially along the NJ coast. We have had some reports of upwelling along the coast, where temperatures have dropped into the 50s and 60s. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Gaines Short Term...Gaines Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Gaines/Nierenberg Marine...Gaines/Nierenberg

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