Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 262033 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 333 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT TO SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT, BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SO ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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BY TOMORROW, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE NC COAST, WHILE THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED OVER NORTHERN MI. AS A RESULT, OUR REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS LEADING TO WARM, ALBEIT STILL RATHER WEAK, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS, HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP OFF THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE EXPECTED AT THAT TIME SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THEN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED BASICALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT EVEN MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-78. WITH LIMITED QPF, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ON UNTREATED ROADS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, BUT BY THEN HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT THE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA FAVOR RAIN VS. SNOW, SO WINTER IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITION ACROSS THE DELMARVA, SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET STREAM SOURCES SETTING ITSELF UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS NOT, SO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE NOT POPULATED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEN A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA BEGINS IT/S SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD, BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH PARALLEL PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN DIP BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. IT APPEARS THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH NO MAJOR SNOWSTORMS ON THE HORIZON JUST YET.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ONLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE LIGHT SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR IN THE NORTH, MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS CLOSER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS ON THE MENTIONED FRONT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IF THIS LOW INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...JOHNSON/MIKETTA MARINE...JOHNSON/MIKETTA

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