Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 271946 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 346 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE CLOSER THE NEW JERSEY COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS IGNITED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. LIKE DAYS PAST THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DOWNWIND PROPAGATION. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MAY PULSE UP THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY REALLY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY AT BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA, CLOSER TO THE LINGERING/WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IS THE BEST PLACE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIME IN A LOT OF PLACES OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES SO ANY LITTLE IMPULSE OR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING. ONCE THEY GET GOING, WITH THE INCREASE IN PWATS AND RELATIVE LOW-TOPPINESS THESE STORMS HAVE THEY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. LATE TONIGHT ONCE THINGS BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN OR SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH, PATCHY FOG FORMATION LOOKS PROBABLE. NOT SURE HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME, BUT ANY CLEARING TONIGHT WILL HELP TO AID IN ITS DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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ONCE WE BURN OFF ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT MAY FORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH CLEARING SKIES, ALBEIT SELF DESTRUCTING. A RAPID CU-FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO NO RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HUMIDITY. SEA AND BAY BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE SOUPINESS OF THE AIR MASSTHEY MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON BOTH DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND IN THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE GUIDELINE CRITERION IS 100. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH TO SEE IF THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO CREEP UPWARD WITH EITHER THE TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT FORECAST. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WE WILL CARRY A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD DROP A BIT FROM THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE WINDS DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AND THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR...IFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON ADDED RAIN FROM SHOWERS. OVERALL A LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WE SHOULD LOSE ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BY LATE MORNING LEAVING US WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIV/ACY HAVING BETTER CHANCES. LOCAL SEA/BAY BREEZES MAY OCCUR AT ACY/MIV/ILG BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW UNDER PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND RUNNING CLOSER TO 2-3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... A LONG PERIOD /10-12 SECOND/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL LOOKS TO CONTINUE, RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER RIP CURRENTS...HEAVENER

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