Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 210729 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 329 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL ENSURE A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS BE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORE WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL TEND TO SWITCH TO SRLY/SWRLY LATER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL BE MOSTLY CLR THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER MON NGT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SRLY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND ITS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THREAT OF TSTMS. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE E/SE THIS MORNING THEN S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... THERE IS STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TODAY FOR SOME LINGERING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AND ENHANCED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN DOWN LATER TODAY AND A SUB-SCA PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>104- 106. NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013- 015>023-027. DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003. MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO

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