Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 030924 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 424 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH INTO THURSDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER OUR REGION AT 400 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS UP NORTH AND IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW BUT TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET IN OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WE COULD SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTH, AROUND 30 IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTH BY EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF SLEET SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WE MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET IN OUR FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM BERKS COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL LOSE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR ICE PELLET DEVELOPMENT AND OUR EVENT SHOULD TRANSITION QUICKLY TO ONE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL WORK ITS WAY GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY NOT QUITE GET TO THE 32 DEGREE MARK BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, MOST NOTABLY THE ADDITION OF MONMOUTH COUNTY, INLAND OCEAN COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY OVER CONCERNS FOR ACCUMULATING ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WHILE UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY AREA. MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S IN AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE ARE EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM EVEN WITH SOME SNOW MELT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A MESSY FORECAST, BUT IMPROVING WEATHER DOES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, SO WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA AND SAGS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, WE MAY GET A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES PAST OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER TO ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR THERMAL PROFILE AND SHOW THIS TRANSITION BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM HAS A LARGE WARM NOSE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WOULD LEAD TO MORE SLEET. WHILE WE THINK THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SLEET WHEN THE TRANSITION BEGINS, THE FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH EARLY ON THURSDAY AND MOVE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AND HELP KICK THE WHOLE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE THIS ALL MOVES OUT, THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALL IN ALL, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY SEEING THE MOST SNOW WITH AS MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES POSSIBLE, WITH LESS ON EITHER SIDE. THIS WOULD HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE MORNING RUSH THURSDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING THURSDAY. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE COLD WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER, SO FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 1900Z TO 2000Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN FOR TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WIND MAY SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...RAIN EARLY, CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OF THE COAST AND MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES COULD BUILD NEAR 5 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS. IT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION. HOWEVER, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062-105. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007>010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>020-027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.