000
FXUS61 KPHI 281706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1206 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING
WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OUT TO SEA DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE WEST
NORTHWEST WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IT WAS DURING THE NIGHT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER TOWARD
SUNSET.

THERE WAS ONE REMAINING STREAK OF CLOUDS POKING DOWN OVER OUR
REGION IN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. IT EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND DOWN THE
SCHUYLKILL RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. IT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS.

A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA LATE IN THE DAY.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH READINGS NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER 28.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID DECK CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY PA AND NJ THIS EVENING
PROBABLY CLEARS LATE. THIS CLOUD COVER IN PART DRIVEN BY A 50-55
KT 700 MB WLY WIND JET CORE ASTRIDE THE SRN PA BORDER AND AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING EWD ACROSS NYS.

SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AND SO WHEN SKIES CLEAR AGAIN
LATE... RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE NAM
TRIES TO FCST MORE RH LATE TONIGHT THAN THE GFS. THE UK SCOOTS THE
MIDDLE DECK OUT OF HERE TO OUR EAST BY 07Z AS DOES THE ECMWF BUT
850 RH INCREASES TOWARD 12Z PHL NWWD AND THAT MIGHT MEAN MORE
CLOUD ARRIVING. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER MORE CLOUD ARRIVES
NEAR DAWN FRIDAY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE ESSENTIALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH OUR REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTH AND SETTLES OVER MAINE. THE HIGH MOVES OFF OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY SETTING UP AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE
OFF OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE A A SLIGHT WARM UP ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION...SMALL POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SMALL POPS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE
COAST. TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WIND...WE COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. ATTM, THE LOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, SO ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE SOME INCREASE, THEY SHOULD BE
WELL UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. SO IN SHORT, NO ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. A
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10,000 FEET IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO OUR
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. IT SHOULD VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH BASES ABOVE
4000 FEET.

THE WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE. VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH OFF THE COAST. TRACK
WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS AND WHERE. P-TYPE WILL BE
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ON THIS
MORNING`S OBSERVATIONS, WE HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON DELAWARE BAY. WE HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 400 PM. THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
GAINS GREATER CONTROL OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A
COASTAL LOW MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR NOVEMBER...PHILADELPHIA SHOULD AVERAGE 2.2 DEGREES BELOW THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE OF 47.6 DEGREES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
MARINE...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG