Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 200736 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 336 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND AN ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SFC HAVE COMBINED TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS EARLY TODAY. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NJ WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OFF THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST EARLY TODAY...SO CHC POPS ARE IN THE MORNING FCST THERE. OTHER ISOLTED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND COOL FOR MID/LATE JULY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY ASSD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ...WHERE MORE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIRLY PLEASANT MID-JULY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THEN THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTORMS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. NEAR AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE IN STORE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S, ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR WEST. INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ZONES FROM THE POCONOS SOUTH TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE BERKS COUNTY AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE IN THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY; ALTHOUGH, FORECAST 850/925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION POCONOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S FOR FAR SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD MAINLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN TO EVE, COVERING EASTERN PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ, WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME FEATURES HIGH CHANCE POPS, AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THEREAFTER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY, ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REACH MORE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW; ALTHOUGH, HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NE MD...NRN NJ AND ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...AND MOST OF THEM WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS NEAR KACY MAY LINGER A BIT LATER. WINDS ARE MOSTLY E OR NE AT 5 TO 10 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MOSTLY MID LEVELS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KRDG/KABE AND VICINITY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG/HAZE AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTORMS. && .MARINE... A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE NJ COAST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SCA EARLY THEN SUB-SCA LATER TODAY. WE WILL NOT RAISE ANY FLAGS WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NE AT AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER DEL BAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA

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