


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --283 FXUS61 KPHI 062330 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Bermuda high pressure will remain in place through this week. Chantal`s remnants will pass to our south late Monday, then a few additional weak systems will impact the region through the remainder of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Tonight...A few showers across portions our our Delmarva zones are expected to dissipate this evening. It will become increasingly more humid through the night and temperatures will be seasonably warm with lows only dropping below 70 degrees across the far N/W areas. Low clouds will move in towards daybreak while patchy light fog could develop too. Light S to SE winds expected. Monday...The influence of (the remnants of) Chantal arrive with deeper moisture along with more upper shortwaves and decent instability. We expect increasing chances for showers and scattered tstms as the morning progresses and into the afternoon. Localized flooding is possible due to the increasing precipitable water, especially for the I-95 corridor and most of Delmarva. There may be a few high rainfall totals (over 2 inches) but the overall speed of the system should keep most reports in the 1 to 2 inch range. These also could be a few gusty thunderstorms. The latest forecast has high temps on Monday a degree or two cooler than yesterday. This along with the higher dew points will keep heat indices/apparent temps just short of Heat Advisory criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The overall atmospheric setup for Monday night through Tuesday night is a continuation of Monday. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be isolated Monday night before coverage picks back up during the day Tuesday. A cold front will be sinking southward Monday night but does not actually start to fully move into the area until Tuesday and stalls out across the southern half of the area by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. During the day Tuesday, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases as the cold front sinking southward acts as an increasing trigger mechanism to an already conducive environment for diurnally driven convection. We will be well into a tropical air mass with temperatures reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s and dew points will be well into the 70s. This means heat index values will near 100 degrees for the urban corridor, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva. A Heat Advisory might be needed for the urban corridor if the trend continues. This environment will support growing instability. MLCAPE values are upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg but shear will be on the lower side. As a result, the potential is there for isolated severe thunderstorms with water loaded downdrafts leading to the primary concern being damaging wind gusts. Our whole area is in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather for this exact reason. Another concern is the localized flash flooding threat. Forecast soundings on Tuesday show a prime heavy rain profile with tall skinny CAPE, PWAT values of 2-2.3 inches with occasional periods of 2.5 inches, a suitable warm cloud layer depth, and the potential for training showers and storms that will be sufficient rainfall producers. Our whole area is in a Marginal (1/4) risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the risk of localized flash flooding. By Tuesday night, the coverage becomes more isolated as the diurnally driven convection starts to diminish but the cold front does stall over the southern portion of our area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... We stay unsettled into the long term with the cold front staying stalled across the area and multiple disturbances moving through. On Wednesday, there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms around but there is the potential for some more scattered coverage near the stalled front located close to Delmarva and southern New Jersey as this front might act as a focal point to enhance the daytime convection. On Thursday and Friday, a weak disturbance looks to move through which will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Another weak disturbance moves in for Saturday keeping showers and thunderstorms going. During the second half of the week and into the beginning of the weekend, high temperatures will be mainly in the 80s. Dew points will remain in the 60s and 70s, so we continue to hold onto the humidity. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR, then MVFR ceilings developing after 06z followed by areas of IFR ceilings. Local fog possible late. Southwest to south winds around 5 knots, becoming light and variable. Low confidence. Monday...IFR ceilings lift to MVFR during the morning then to VFR around 16z. Some showers and thunderstorms will be around, with any thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon. Continued with a VCSH mention and then a PROB30 regarding the afternoon thunderstorm potential. Southerly winds increasing to near 10 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...Prevailing VFR with daily chances for thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Areas of fog possible at night.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels into Monday. Winds and seas do increase Monday afternoon and come up just short of SCA levels. We`ll hold on any headline attm. Isolated showers/tstms into the early evening for Delaware Bay and Delaware Coastal waters today then more scattered showers/tstms Monday afternoon/evening. As always, higher winds and seas locally near tstms. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...Wind and seas are forecast to remain below advisory criteria. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise fair weather. Rip Currents... For Monday, southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph. Breaking wave heights increase to 2-3 feet with a primary S swell around 3 feet and a 6-8 second period. Given slightly stronger winds and slightly higher waves with slightly higher swell compared to Sunday, kept MODERATE at the more southerly facing NJ beaches of Cape May, Atlantic and Ocean, and LOW for the easterly facing beaches of Monmouth and DE. For Tuesday, winds shift southwesterly and decrease to 5-10 mph. Breaking wave heights remain around 2-3 feet with a primary S swell increasing to 4 feet at a 6-8 second period. Given the higher swell, went with a MODERATE rip current risk at all beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Staarmann NEAR TERM...OHara SHORT TERM...Guzzo LONG TERM...Guzzo AVIATION...Gorse/Guzzo/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...Guzzo/OHara/RCM/Staarmann