Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260721 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build into our area today. Low pressure moving from the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to move northward through the region on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build into our area Wednesday through Friday. By next weekend, low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley may send a warm front toward the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure across Quebec/Maine will move offshore today while weak low pressure slowly moves to near Chicago by evening. A steady onshore flow will continue across our area thru the day. This will promote an abundance of low clouds and fog along with some light rain and drizzle at times. Pops will be greatest across the northern areas where we have hi chc pops and the pops taper off s/e to slgt chc across srn DE. Unlike Saturday, temperatures will be below normal, with highs only in the 40s in most areas, and a few low 50s over Delmarva. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... The overall pattern will not change much tonight with high pressure north/east and weak low pressure moving closer across the Great Lakes. The onshore flow will continue and the chances for more measurable rains will increase tonight. The best chances will again be across the southern Poconos, Lehigh valley and north NJ where we will have categorical pops. The pops decrease back to likely over the Del Valley and cntrl NJ and the chc pops over south NJ and srn DE. Patchy fog and drizzle will occur between the bouts of rain. Overall qpf will not be that great, a few hundredths across the south and up to 1/4 inch up north. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will be updated shortly. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Not a particularly great day for flying across the Delaware Valley and surrounding areas with a prolonged onshore flow and low clouds expected today and tonight. Cigs are lowering across the area early this morning from N to S over the region behind the cold front which crossed the area earlier. Ocnl drizzle and fog will occur as the lower level moisture thickens up. Overall confid in tafs as to when precip will occur is limited. NE to E winds mostly 10 to 15 kts today and tonight. OUTLOOK... && .MARINE... We will keep the SCA flags as they are on the waters and just raise the next segment with the 330 am issuance, instead of waiting until 6 a.m. The onshore flow will continue today and a gradual building of seas will continue. Scattered showers and patchy fog expected. OUTLOOK... && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... In the wake of a backdoor frontal passage, a 36 hour period of onshore flow is expected through Monday morning, with easterly wind gusts up to 25 MPH at times. Astronomical tides are also increasing, coincident with the New Moon this Monday, March 27. The ESTOFS remains most aggressive out of the guidance suite, with near minor flooding for the sunrise Monday high tide along the DE and NJ oceanfront, and it has has outperformed the other guidance recently. Both the NOS and ETSS are more conservative. The wind will also be trending more parallel (southerly) to the shore by sunrise Monday, so there remains uncertainty with regard to water levels reaching the minor flooding threshold. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...Drag Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/O`Hara Marine...Drag/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding...Franck

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