Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 221858 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS. IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA. AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND SKYCOVER. FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES TOWARD 6 PM. ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT. TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1 FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST SHIFTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS... LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...DRAG 258 SHORT TERM...DRAG 258 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258 MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258 RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258

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