Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 161437
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1037 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that passed through our region during the night
will continue to move out to sea today. High pressure is
expected to follow for the period from tonight through Thursday.
Another cold front from the northwest is forecast to arrive on
Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to build back over
the eastern states for Friday and Saturday before moving off the
coast on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few updates for the mid-morning. A short wave is now
approaching Delmarva and there have been a resumption of the
showers across the area. Pops for the late morning and early
afternoon were ticked upward a bit, and prolonged by a few
hours. Up to a tenth of an inch could fall by early afternoon.
Elsewhere, showers have ended and a slow drying from NW to SE
has begun. A few breaks in the clouds have been observed across
the Lehigh Valley in the past few hours.

Winds are expected to become gusty out of the west to northwest
and could gust 20-30 mph at times across the area. The gusts
should begin to diminish around sunset for many areas.

Temperatures...the northwest flow behind the front has resulted
in cooler air filtering in across the area. Temperatures are
expected to remain steady or lower slightly through the rest of
the morning hours, then may rise a couple of degrees this
afternoon as the sun comes out. However, calendar day highs have
likely already occurred for most areas before sunrise this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Any remaining gusts from the day will continue to diminish into
the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are expected, and much
cooler conditions. In fact, many areas could be a degree or two
below normal low temperatures tonight. With the cool conditions,
areas of frost are possible tonight across northern New Jersey
and northeast Pennsylvania. Therefore we keep the previous Frost
Advisory, and have expanded it to a few additional counties. It
is possible that a few locations in the Poconos may see
temperatures near freezing as well, but we do not expect them to
be widespread enough for a Freeze Warning. There may also be
some patchy frost across the Pine Barrens across southern New
Jersey, however winds are forecast to be high enough to preclude
a Frost Advisory there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure located over the Middle Atlantic States and
vicinity will influence our weather during the period from
Tuesday through Sunday. No precipitation is anticipated.

A mid level short wave trough and an associated cold front may
arrive from the northwest on Thursday night. However, there will
be little moisture associated with these features.

Normal temperatures for the coming week and weekend in
southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern
Maryland are generally highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
Normals highs in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and
northern New Jersey are mostly in the middle and upper 50s with
normal lows in the middle and upper 30s.

Tuesday`s temperatures are forecast to be at the low end or
just below the the normal range. As the week progresses,
temperatures are anticipated to rise back above normal. Highs
should favor the 70s with lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower
50s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals as of the late
morning. It is possible that KACY may still experience some MVFR
in the approaching showers, but confid in this is low and I have
not written them in the latest AMD for ACY. Slowly clearing
skies from NW to SE expected this afternoon. Some spill-over SC
clouds (VFR cigs) from the NW possible later for KRDG-KABE.

Winds will become quite gusty through the rest of the morning
hours and into this afternoon. West to northwest winds are expected
to increase, with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. The wind gusts
are diminish late this afternoon and into this evening.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all the waters
today and tonight. Winds are expected to increase behind a cold
front that will move across the waters this morning. Winds are
expected to increase to 25-30 knots through today and into
tonight. Also, seas on the Atlantic Ocean are expected to remain
around 5-7 feet today, but may begin to subside some tonight.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ061-062-
     105.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ009-010.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001-007-
     008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Robertson/PO
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Iovino/Robertson/PO
Marine...Iovino/Robertson



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