Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 160226
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
926 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure well to the northeast will continue to move
away tonight. High pressure will affect the weather much of the
time from Thursday through Saturday. A weak cold front will
cross the region Sunday night. More high pressure is across the
area for the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A mid level low is forecast to pass across eastern New York and
New England tonight. The axis of a short wave trough rotating
around the low passed over our region this evening. Another
short wave trough is expected to approach from the northwest
toward morning.

A brisk west northwest wind and cold advection will be the
weather pattern for tonight. The wind is anticipated to gust
around 25 or 30 MPH at times.

The elevated terrain of the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey
will continue to experience passing snow showers and flurries
with an additional light coating of snow possible.

Minimum temperatures will favor the 20s in eastern
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Still a cold trough aloft so that diurnal sc increasing midday
to mostly cloudy for a time before thinning toward sunset. Gusty
northwest winds to 30 or even 35 mph. Max temps maybe 2 to 3
degrees below normal with minus 11C/12C at 850mb. There could
continue to be some lake effect snow showers/flurries across the
Poconos and northwest New Jersey during the day as several
short waves circle around the mid/upper low located to our
northeast. Minor accumulations...a dusting to an inch. Still
could make roads briefly hazardous. max temp fcst may be a
degree or two too warm.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blend of the 12z/15 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There are no weather systems of significance expected to affect
our area during the long term. A very mild pattern will take
hold this weekend and persist into the middle part of next week.
Temperatures during this period will be 10 to as much as 20
degrees above normal. Sunday appears to be the warmest day of
the stretch with highs in the 60s most areas and mid/upper 50s
far north. A weak cold front will cross the area later Sunday.
No precipitation is expected with the front at this time.

Next week, another high pressure area will build in for Monday
and Tuesday. No precipitation is expected Monday or monday
night, but a slgt chc for a shower will be in the fcst for the
northern areas for Tuesday. Low pressure will be moving north of
the area, and some of the associated moisture will be affecting
Nrn PA and Nrn NJ.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The cloud
cover should favor scattered tonight with a few periods of
broken cloud cover possible. Ceiling are forecast to remain
above 4000 feet. The cloud cover is anticipated to become broken
for much of Thursday, again with ceilings above 4000 feet.

A west northwest wind at 10 to 15 knots tonight should gust
around 20 to 25 knots at times. Sustained speeds are forecast to
increase to 15 to 20 knots on Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30
knots.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night-Friday night...VFR with gusty winds.

Saturday-Monday...Generally VFR expected, although MVFR CIGS
possible during the day if clouds develop.

&&

.MARINE...
GLW Atlantic coastal waters tonight and Thursday. GLW lower DE
BAY tonight. SCA upper DE Bay.

Gale force wind gusts (around 35 kt) are expected to occur
overnight as colder air moving atop the relatively warmer waters
will allow for efficient mixing.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night and Fri...Gales will diminish Thu evening and SCA
conditions will be across the waters Thu night and Fri. Gusts on
Delaware Bay will go below SCA conditions by around dawn Fri.
Fair weather.

Fri night thru Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Fair
weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values may lower close to 30% Thursday and possibly again on
Friday. Winds will be quite gusty Thursday gusting in the 25-35
mph range, and Friday will be less gusty with gusts possibly in
the 20-25 mph range. A look at fuel moisture guidance looks
like fuels are still a little moist. Coordination this afternoon
with our NJ and PA partners suggested it still was too moist
for an SPS issuance Thursday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The month as a whole has so far averaged 3 to 5 degrees above
normal through Valentines Day, except just a little more than a
degree above normal at KMPO. There isn`t any sign of long
duration substantially colder than normal air coming in February
and in fact some of the guidance is suggesting near record
warmth is possible this weekend. We`ll take a closer look at
that tomorrow. Suffice to say...February is highly likely to
average above normal. We`ll try and figure to what degree, also
tomorrow. Snowfall continues to average well below normal. It`s
still too early to look at the lower value ranking for the
season, especially since there is some ensemble guidance
indicating a more active storm track developing in our area by
the first week of March.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ431.

&&

$$

Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Iovino/O`Hara
Marine...Drag/O`Hara
Fire Weather...Staff
Climate...Drag



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