Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 181349 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 949 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may move into the area Thursday into Friday. A couple of frontal boundaries are forecast to affect the area early next week, bringing a return of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The Frost Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM for the NJ Pine Barrens as temperatures have risen from the mid 30s at 7 AM to the lower 50s just two hours later. Otherwise, a quiet weather day is in store with high centered over the mid-Atlantic region today. Sunny skies and a light W-SW wind are in store for the area. The combination of subsidence underneath the ridge and weak WAA (from W-SW flow on the northern periphery of the high) will yield a noticeably warmer day than yesterday and Monday. The latest 12Z RAOB soundings from IAD/OKX reveal a 5-10 C increase in low- level temps over the past 24 hours. High temperatures for today were tweaked a bit for the 930 AM update after blending the previous forecast with the latest hi-res guidance and then applying a few minor manual adjustments based on bias correct from yesterday`s forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
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Made adjustments to the sky cover forecast for tonight to take into account the probability of increasing high clouds late tonight. An upper shortwave trough approaching from the west will be responsible for bringing in these clouds. Do not anticipate these clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the high base of the cirrus. Clear tonight with diminishing winds. Dewpoints will slowly begin to creep up with light S to SW flow. Patchy ground fog is possible across the Delmarva, Pine Barrens of NJ, and parts of northern NJ. Radiational cooling will allow for lows in the upper 30s to around 40 in the Pine Barrens, and in the mid 40s most elsewhere. The Philly metro area will drop into the low 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of this week into the weekend. High pressure will be in control of the weather through the end of the week before moving offshore Sunday. A frontal boundary may move across the area on Thursday, although it is expected to be dry and only have an effect on the wind direction and may slightly increase winds. Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through Sunday. As we go into early next week, a couple of frontal boundaries are forecast to move across the east coast. This is expected to lead to an increase in rainfall activity Monday into Tuesday, then usher in cooler weather behind the fronts. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR through tonight. A light wind between 4-8 kt today will vary between W and SW with the latter direction favored for this afternoon. Winds diminish to 5 KT or less tonight. Patchy ground fog is possible with brief sub-VFR VSBY at KMIV and KACY late tonight through Thursday morning. OUTLOOK... Thursday-Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust around 15 knots out of the southwest Thursday and out of the northwest Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure dominates area waters. SW winds increase to 10-15 KT this afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 KT tonight. Seas on the ocean will be 2-3 feet. OUTLOOK... Thursday-Sunday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the period.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Klein Short Term...Klein/MPS Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Klein/Robertson/MPS Marine...Klein/Robertson/MPS

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