Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 181710 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST ESTF UPDATE NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED. WE ARE LOSING THE STRATOCU CIG AND THE CIRRUS OVERALL LOOKS THINNER. WE LOWERED THE SKY COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WE CONTINUE TO BACK END THEM TOWARD THE END OF AFTERNOON. TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP DURING THE DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED SFC SUSTAINED WINDS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. E WIND GUST NEAR 15 MPH WITH THE WIND BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P VCNTY PHILADELPHIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH CFP SCT-BKN SC NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W OR NW LATE AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING OUR AREA. THIS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WHEN THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS COULD EASILY GUST 25-30 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT KACY AND COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NJ AS WELL AS NEAR DELAWARE BAY. BUT, THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION LOOKS TO MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING. SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS 7 FT AT 44009 AT 5 AM. GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SO RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE. DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET THEN SHIFTS TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED, THOUGH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. TUESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON

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