Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 200721 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY (SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330 CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA

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