Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 291400 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER NORTHERN NJ AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THRU THE DAY...WHILE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED W/VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE SMALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. THE SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINE THRU TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .RIP CURRENTS... SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE DE COAST. && .CLIMATE... THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. SITE POR 6/27 JUNE NORMAL RANK WETTEST ILG 1894 2.17 12.46 3.50 2ND 13.66 (2013) ACY 1874 2.37* 8.04 2.81 2ND 8.45 (1920) ABE 1922 0.86 7.02 3.86 6TH 10.51 (1938) PHL 1872 1.34 7.23 3.08 10TH 10.56 (2013) *ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912 AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...FRANCK SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK CLIMATE...FRANCK

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