Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280402 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1202 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure across the mid-Atlantic region will maintain generally fair and warm weather through most of the weekend. Moisture from the remnants of a tropical system to our south may reach the area by Memorial Day and interact with a weak frontal system to produce showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure and dry but continued warm weather are expected through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1230 AM ESTF: No major changes projected overnight. Temps and dews pretty close to the hourly projections through 11 pm. A fair warm summer like night with a little more wind on-going than expected 24 hours ago (s-sw 5-10 mph). Patchy stratus/fog expected portions of e PA toward dawn. We`ve reset the dix sta/stp and expect to be in clear air VCP32 for the rest of the night. Saturday...Early season heat wave (Day 3 of the minimum required) is at hand for PHL/PNE/ABE/WRI while other locations nearby in our CWA have been 89-90F the past two days and today will be day 3, but cannot officially note them as heat wave potential inclusive (GED/REG/TTN). So, after any early morning low clouds/fog/haze...a sunny day with the forecast likely verifying above any of the warmest available guidance be it bias corrected, or individual NCEP op MOS, super and national blends. Will discuss the details in the 3am update. Bottom line...16c at 850 with a south-southwest wind gusty to 20 mph this afternoon should allow temps to rise to 1-2F above yesterdays values. Heat index again in the lower 90s. Not anticipating convection this Saturday afternoon even in the pwat axis of 1.5" near and north of I-78...northern portion of our CWA. There is no known lift mechanism. Suppose something isolated can develop but with suppressant ridging at mid levels (500mb) today and lack of excessive moisture (PWAT of 1.5" for a 570 1000-500mb thickness is not excessive), therefore it seems difficult to develop afternoon convection. Max temps again 10-15F above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Fair and warm with min temps again 10-15F above normal and a light south to southwest wind. Hazy with patchy fog expected late, primarily in the countryside. Any evening showers along and north of I-80 in NNJ/ne PA quickly end during the evening.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic region is expected to continue through the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical system now off the SE Atlantic coast. Moisture from tropical depression 2 NE of the Bahamas is forecast to move N into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday with an increasing chance of showers and T-storms by afternoon. Showers and storms are forecast to continue Sunday night into Monday as a weak frontal system moves into the area from the NW. PWATS are forecast to be near 2 inches over the area so some heavy downpours and possible flooding can be expected. Clouds and precip will result in milder daytime temps on Monday. By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trough moves by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there is not much change in air mass with the with the associated surface front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased chances for precip.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z Saturday...VFR with MVFR vsby possible toward 10z in haze or patchy fog. Small chc IFR stratus fog vcnty KRDG/KABE toward 10z. Light south to southwest wind. After 12z Saturday...any sub VFR vsby improves to VFR by 15z with only sct clouds aoa 5000 ft and a south to southwest wind gusty to 18 kt during mid afternoon. no convection expected at the TAF sites though not impossible to see an afternoon shower vcnty KABE/KRDG. Saturday night...VFR with probable MVFR vsby in haze or patchy fog toward 10z sunday. Light south to southwest wind. OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and T-storms.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines anticipated through Saturday night. Winds were gusty 20-30 kt for a time this evening along the coasts and this drove seas upward to near 5 ft at 44065. This was stronger than we expected 24 hours ago. We expect the southerly flow and associated wind wave to subside a bit overnight. So in essence, a south to southwest wind occasionally gusty to near 20 kt through saturday night with Atlantic waters seas 2-4ft and De Bay 1-2 Ft. OUTLOOK... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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We`ll be adding considerable information to this section between 4 and 5 am Saturday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...AMC/Drag/Johnson 1202a Near Term...Drag/Iovino/Johnson 1202a Short Term...Drag/Iovino 1202a Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/Drag/Iovino/Johnson 1202a Marine...AMC/Drag/Iovino/Johnson 1202a Climate...1202a

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