Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Dry and warmer weather continues through the
weekend as high pressure builds overhead. Winds will not be an
issue even for area lakes.

Monday will see the transition from ridge to west/northwest flow
again, which remains into next week. The first target of
opportunity arises Monday afternoon with moisture returning and the
risk of showers and thunderstorms. This initial round shifts east
Monday evening and night. Even with this transition taking place,
this will also be the warmest day, with low to mid 90s abound at
lower elevations and 70s/80s for most mountain locales. Tuesday
showers and thunderstorms continue across the central mountains
and eastern highlands, as well as the Upper Plain due to a weak
storm moving east across Idaho. Expect cooler and breezy
conditions to develop which is a big theme throughout next week.
As a bigger storm drops south out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains, the risk of rain and thunder persists across the mountains
especially near the Divide and along the Wyoming border toward
Driggs and Palisades. By midweek, highs drop back into the
70s/near 80s in the valleys and 50s/60s in the backcountry.
Confidence in the forecast after that wanes a bit as the
operational model data and ensembles are not in line. Both retain
northwest flow but the GFS keeps most of the moisture along and
east of the Divide vs the ECMWF. The ensembles show a pattern
closer to the ECMWF but we started with a dry forecast for the end
of next week and kept it. This is in line with surrounding
offices. IF we end up with a pattern similar to the current ECMWF
and ensembles, you can expect little warm up and continued wet
conditions across the central mountains and eastern highlands.


.AVIATION...An upper ridge dominating the Pac NW will result in
continued VFR conditions thru tonight. Hedges


.FIRE WEATHER...An upper ridge dominating the Pac NW will result in
dry and increasingly warmer conditions through the weekend. A cold
front on Monday is expected to bring thunderstorms to the region by
Monday afternoon...continuing into Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected Mon evening across the central Idaho mountains and
along the Divide...with isolated activity elsewhere. Winds pick up
on Tue...along with cooler temperatures. Hedges


.HYDROLOGY...Most streams and rivers across the central Idaho
mountains and the Teton river have crested. The cooler temps have
slowed snowmelt and we expect rivers to fall through the weekend.
Warm weather is expected once again for Sunday and Monday. Higher
flows will be possible again early to mid week.




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