000
FXUS65 KPIH 190347
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NEAR
MOUNTAIN HOME WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 56 MPH. WINDS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN SOME THE PAST HOUR BUT THE 00Z NAM12 MODEL SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS OVER WESTERN CASSIA COUNTY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT 8 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WEST WIND DIRECTION IS
OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS TO CHANNEL THROUGH THE TERRAIN
AND BE FELT ON INTERSTATE 84 BETWEEN IDAHOME AND THE INTERSTATE 86
JUNCTION. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OVER NIGHT HOURS.
ALSO...DROPPED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THE REST OF TONIGHT
ALONG THE IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

..DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT
AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FCST AREA WED THRU FRI.
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THRU EASTEREN ID BY LATE WED MORN. THIS WILL
BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS FOR WED AFTN AND
EVE. NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL...WHILE THE
GFS FALLS SHORT. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WINDS AND THE
COLD ADVECTION...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID
AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS INTO WED
EVE. PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN
THE BURN AREAS IN NORTHERN CUSTER CO. ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY
POP UP WED AFTN/EVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. AT THIS TIME...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL REMAIN
DRY. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OUT
OF ID. THE NAM MOVES THE LOW OUT MUCH SOONER...BUT THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SAY OTHERWISE. A MINOR UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY
SAT EVE...AND REMAINS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FLATTENING INTO MORE
ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDTIONS AND WARMER TEMPS SAT
AND SUN...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN PAC MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREAST THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MON THRU TUE IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS. HEDGES

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WIND GUSTS MAY AGAIN BE ERRATIC AND STRONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40KTS. MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z. DSH

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER...PACNW UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF DRY CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CORRESPONDING RISE IN
DAYTIME HUMIDITY. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ020-021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ022.

&&

$$