Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242036
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
636 AM CHST TUE NOV 25 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE WEST...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO BE A BROAD
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER CHUUK...POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS OR REASONING. STILL
EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL THURSDAY
OR SO...THEN CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION SECTION. RESUMPTION OF THE DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS INDICATED LOWER COMBINED SEAS.
REDUCED BOTH SECONDARY SWELL AND TRADE-WIND SWELL FOR TODAY A
FOOT TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST READINGS. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THE PLOT THICKENS. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING WINDS AND SEAS UP TO MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THE CWFMY SYNOPSIS YET...BUT SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE GROWING MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE IN A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NORTH AND
EAST OF MAJURO IN THE VICINITY OF A TRADE-WIND TROUGH. FORECAST
IS ON THE BORDERLINE FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS CURRENT CALL IS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT ANY
NORTHWARD EXPANSION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BOTH LOCALES.
MAJURO WILL SEE SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING...BECOMING SCATTERED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK WITHIN A ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. POHNPEI WILL SEE
WETTER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KOSRAE WILL SEE THE SAME BY
THURSDAY.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF
AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE
STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF
HEIGHTS ON BOTH LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF KOROR AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD THERE TODAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
DISSIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT HAS REDEVELOPED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER KOROR BEFORE
THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST. YAP HAS DRIED OUT NOW THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST. FOR CHUUK...TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE WEST AROUND MIDDAY. A BROADER
BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MICRONESIA AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS OVER
CHUUK...BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO A BAND BETWEEN 9N AND 10N. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORMING SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AROUND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY FOCUS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR YAP
AND KOROR BY FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/W. AYDLETT





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.