Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 050701
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
501 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER HEADING NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ROTA THIS MORNING...THEN
SOAKING GUAM AS IT LOOPED SLOWLY COUNTER-CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE
ROTA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS THAT TS CHAN-HOM IS FINALLY
GETTING READY TO CROSS ROTA AGAIN AS IT MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE SECOND--AND LAST!--TIME. RADAR SHOWS NEARLY ALL OF THE
RAIN SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER...WITH SOME RAIN BANDS STILL
MOVING ACROSS GUAM...AND SPIRALLING UP INTO ROTA. MEANWHILE...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ALL OF CHAN-HOM`S GYRATIONS THAT BROUGHT A FOOT OF RAIN TO
GUAM...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE WINDING DOWN HERE...BUT ROTA
CAN STILL EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDINTIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
CENTER PASSES BY FOR THE SECOND TIME. AFTER THAT...CHAN-HOM SHOULD
MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE MARIANAS IN
BRISK SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING MUCH MONSOONAL RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AFTER THAT...SO HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING FROM TS NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK...THOUGH IT MAY
BRIEFLY DRAG UP SOME MONSOON WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH ALL TROPICAL WARNINGS NOW DOWN FOR TINIAN/SAIPAN...HAVE
INSTITUTED SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THEM. ONCE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM/ROTA COMES DOWN...THOSE ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THEM AS WELL...POSSIBLY BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA...CURRENTLY LOCATED 555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MAJURO NEAR 11N164E...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
ENEWETAK. AS NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MAJURO...FAIR
CONDITIONS OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD TO
POHNPEI. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THERE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY OVER MAJURO AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO
KOSRAE MONDAY AND POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION.

COMBINED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SURF TO FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY THROUGH THE MARIANAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM EAST OF
LUZON THROUGH 18N130E TO CHAN-HOM THEN CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO TROPICAL STORM NANGKA. CONVERGING WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP STATE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF KOROR
AND THE PALAU WILL SEE FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS CHAN-HOM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE AT YAP...THOUGH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OFF AND ON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WENO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY AS
CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA...LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...WILL GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS THE STORM MOVES
BY...WELL NORTH OF CHUUK...WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AS NANGKA DRAGS THE MONSOON TROUGH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE. AS
THIS OCCURS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN TO CHUUK STATE.

LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS DATA INDICATE SEAS NEAR KOROR
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS. WITH STRONGER MONSOON WINDS
STILL EXPECTED NEAR YAP AND CHUUK...HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL LINGER THERE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS CHUUK UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...KOROR AND YAP THRU
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001-002.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ001-002.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ151-152.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.