Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 060759 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
421 PM CHST FRI MAR 6 2015

RESENT FOR WEB POSTING

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
EAST. FARTHER EAST TOWARD 170E...JUST A FEW TRADE-WIND CLOUDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK SO FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. DID LOWER POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EAST OF 150E. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
NEAR THE MARSHALLS...SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH MICRONESIA
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES
IN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS TO BE AROUND 8 FEET
ACROSS THE MARIANAS...MAINLY TRADE-WIND SWELL. WAVE MODELS KEEP
THE TRADE-WIND SWELL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WERE OBSERVED AT THE WEATHER OFFICE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FRESH WINDS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED
FUELS TO RESUME DRYING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER...AND PAIRED UP
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...COULD LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
AGAIN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FOR MAJURO...ASCAT ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED NEAR 3N171E TODAY IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NORTHEAST OF
MAJURO IN AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY
CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS PERSIST NEAR MAJURO. ALTIMETRY DATA AND WW3 WAVE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET REMAIN NEAR
AND NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. ALSO...MINOR INUNDATION PROBLEMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING HIGH TIDES THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RELATIVELY DRY TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BUT
THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MAJURO COULD START SPREADING SHOWERY
WEATHER TOWARD KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK
SO THAT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A
BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND MODELS
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NEAR KOROR THIS WEEKEND. A
TRADE-WIND SURGE COULD ALSO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AT CHUUK BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

ALSO FOR CHUUK...ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT COMBINED SEAS REMAIN NEAR 9 FEET AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE SEAS REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10
FEET DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON



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