Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 220719
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
519 PM CHST MON DEC 22 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWS OPEN-CELLED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS UPSTREAM...MAINLY
FROM 150E EASTWARD THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. LOCAL BUOYS REPORT SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET FROM
EAST...AND VAD GRADIENT WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 25
KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS
THE MARIANA ISLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AT LEAST. ALSO...SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT
TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW/TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS RANGES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST BELOW HIGH SURF LEVELS FOR EAST FACING
REEFS...BUT THE EAST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVE GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY BASED ON WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH THE LATEST GFS DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FOLLOWING A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
FILTERING INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES OVER MAJURO WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
ATOLL. MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK FOR MAJURO AS STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES KEEP WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED AT KOSRAE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF LULL
IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY ON KOSRAE BUT SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THERE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SAME DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT POHNPEI LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUIETER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK FOR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI AS ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.

LARGE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH SURF EVENT WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH
SURF EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON MAJURO AND
POHNPEI THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHILE SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON
EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
ALTIMETRY AND WAVE WATCH OUTPUT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAJURO. HOWEVER...SURF
OBSERVATIONS TAKEN ON EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF MAJURO WERE BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS DUE TO ARNO ATOLL BLOCKING MUCH OF THE SWELL AND
WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. FELT WARNING WAS STILL NEEDED
FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MAJURO ATOLL AS THIS AREA IS MORE
DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL ENERGY THAT IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ARNO ATOLL. MENTIONED INUNDATION
POSSIBILITIES ON ARNO ATOLL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SAME TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AFFECTING KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL
QUICKLY MOVE WEST AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WET CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER ON CHUUK FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW INVADES CHUUK STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EMERGE
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND AFFECT YAP AND KOROR LATE THIS WEEK.
GFS SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A DEVELOPED CIRCULATION WHILE ECMWF
DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING. INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY FOR
YAP AND KOROR AS THE DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ON
THE EAST FACING REEFS OF CHUUK THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF MAY FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURF WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ON EASTERN EXPOSURES OF YAP THROUGH MIDWEEK AND MAY REACH
HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...APPEARS SURF ON YAP
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS






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