Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 310933 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
436 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS
WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN THE COASTAL FORECAST
ZONES. THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 23 KNOTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LAST
STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE MARIANAS NOW AND WILL SHORTLY
PUSH OFF TO THE WEST ALONG WITH HALONG. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL
RETURN TO NORMAL WET SEASON CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DID
NOT ADD THIS SIGNAL AT THIS TIME...WILL WATCH TO SEE IF IT PERSISTS
TOMORROW. IT HAS BEEN AN ODD KIND OF SHIFT AT WFO GUAM...SPENT A
FAIR CHUNK OF TIME ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS. WHILE I AM CONFIDENT WE
WILL MAKE THE 80S TOMORROW...THE INHERITED HIGH TEMP OF 88 LOOKED A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE QUITE VARIABLE SO GAVE A 3 FOOT RANGE ON THE COMBINED
SEAS. WILL WAIT FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SEAS BELOW 10 FEET TO END
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SURF GRIDS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH SURF
COULD LAST INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL WAIT TO ADJUST THAT
THOUGH...SEE HOW THE BUOYS LOOK TOMORROW.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THERE IS A WEAK CIRCULATION A LITTLE NORTH OF POHNPEI CURRENTLY. THE
MODELS TAKE IT NORTH AND EAST OF US...AND DO NOT DEVELOP IT MUCH
ANYWAY. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS GOING TO BE THE LAST OF
THE MOHICANS...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.

&&

CORRECTED TO MENTION MAJURO

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS SEEN NEAR POHNPEI CENTERED AT 8N158E. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TOWARD CHUUK. UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT POHNPEI THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT KOSRAE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR THE DATE LINE WILL HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD MAJURO OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS SEEN JUST EAST OF CHUUK AS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI SPREADS
WESTWARD. HAVE ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THIS
EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CHUUK STATE...BUT OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
REMAINING ISOLATED. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.

YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL STORM HALONG SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THICK HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER YAP STATE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD TOWARD KOROR FRIDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS NEARBY...
BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF HALONG.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST FRIDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT





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