Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252056
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
656 AM CHST SUN OCT 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE SITUATED WEST OF THE MARIANAS AROUND
148E...AND OUT TO THE EAST AROUND 148-150E. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS
INCREASING EAST OF THE ISLANDS. SEAS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET AT
THE RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWLY DEVELOPING MONSOON PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS...WITH A WETTER PERIOD DEVELOPING FOR THE
MARIANAS AT SOME POINT--DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. HAVE CHANGED VERY
LITTLE IN THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO EXTEND ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...MAINLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
NOT MUCH SIGN YET OF DECLINING SWELL HEIGHT AT THE BUOYS...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONE AND LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. ONCE THE SURF DROPS...THE RIP
RISK WILL BE MODERATE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE RIDGING BETWEEN THE TAIL END OF A MONSOON TROUGH NEAR CHUUK
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER FOR POHNPEI THRU THIS EVENING...AND FOR
KOSRAE UNTIL TONIGHT. WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS GOING TO LINGER NEAR MAJURO THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST OF THE MARSHALLS THIS EVENING...A DRIER PERIOD
IS EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
KOSRAE ON MONDAY...AND POHNPEI BY MONDAY EVENING AS THIS SAME TROUGH
ARRIVES. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH MEANDERING EASTWARD FROM A CIRCULATION NEAR THE DATE LINE
AT 5N178E TO BEYOND 6N155W. A FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE PASSING SOUTH
OF HAWAII WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES WESTWARD
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION NEAR IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
MAJURO. THIS SAME PATTERN WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT. TOWARD MIDWEEK...WEAKER TRADES SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DECREASE NEAR THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE
REGION.

NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND LET SURF ACROSS
CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. READINGS FROM THE BUOY AT KALO MAJURO INDICATE NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELLS ARE PEAKING NEAR 4 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. SURF OF 5 TO
6 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH SPRING HIGH TIDES OF 4 TO 5 FT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION BUT NO
INUNDATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN END OF A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH
WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND IN CHUUK STATE TODAY. CONVERGING
WINDS ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY WILL KEEP SPORADIC CONVECTION
NEAR CHUUK LAGOON THRU THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI SHOULD INTRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER.
TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS MIGHT PUT AN END TO THE QUIET WEATHER. REFER
TO THE SECOND PARAGRAPH UNDER THE EASTERN MICRONESIA DISCUSSION
ABOVE FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR KOROR AND YAP FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GENTLE WINDS NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL NOT GENERATE MUCH
RAINFALL ACROSS EITHER LOCALE. INSTEAD...A SERIES OF SMALL TRADE
DISTURBANCES MERGING INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL TRIGGER
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH PLACES THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE STATUS OF THE CIRCULATION TRACKING
WESTWARD FROM CHUUK. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST NO MAJOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES THRU WESTERN MICRONESIA NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER ECMWF AND NAVGEM ARE STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM AND
ESTABLISHING MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NEAR
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...JUST MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. RESIDUAL NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS YAP STATE AND PALAU
THRU MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





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