Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022218
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
818 AM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS...PRIMARILY AROUND GUAM AND ROTA FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS. VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 11 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 14 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. REFRESHED THE WINDS AND WIND
DEPENDENT GRIDS SUCH AS WIND WAVES AND GUSTS. EXTENDED THE WAVE
GRIDS AND THE SURF GRIDS. REALLY...THE CHANGES WERE VERY MINOR.
RETAINED PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY...WHICH AT FIRST SEEMED IT MIGHT
BE QUESTIONABLE FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. DECIDED IT WOULD
TEND TO CLOUD UP AS THE DAY WENT ON AND THIS SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING
AT ROTA. SO...CLOUDS COULD WELL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE WHILE DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION NEAR THE ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO CHUUK WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A QUIETER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REPOSITIONS TO THE SOUTH. YAP AND KOROR
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE MOISTURE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS



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