Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 030703
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
503 PM CHST WED SEP 3 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER GUAM AND MOVING OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST JUST AS THEY START PRODUCING LIGHTNING. A FUNNEL
CLOUD WAS REPORTED AT SAIPAN ABOUT NOON. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FARTHER SW OF GUAM. VAD GRADIENT WINDS
ARE SSW AT 10-15 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES BUT
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION AT LEAST TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH AND INDICATE A
LITTLE DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. THEN...GFS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN POHNPEI AND CHUUK TODAY WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND HELP CAUSE OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK INTO NORTHEAST FLOW.
RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO ARRIVE AND HELP TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
TO NEXT WEEKS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE THREE LOCAL BUOYS SHOW MIXED SEA CONDITIONS. WAVES ARE ARRIVING
FROM EAST-NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME WAVES WRAPPING AROUND
FROM SOUTH AT IPAN. ALL SHOW COMBINED SEAS NEAR 3 FEET. WAVES GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON WW3 GUIDANCE AND WINDS GRIDS WERE
REFRESHED WITH GFS THROUGH 5 DAYS. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND SO SOUTHWEST WAVES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OF POHNPEI ALLOWING GRADUALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THAT STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST TO THE EAST OF KOSRAE. OTHERWISE...WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET
ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DATE LINE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEN...MAINLY JUST LIGHT WINDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT CHUUK FROM THE POHNPEI AREA THIS EVENING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AT LEAST. THE WEATHER
SHOULD THEN SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND KOROR. THE SOUTHWEST
MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND GRADUALLY MORE FROM EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA COULD BE VERY
CHANGEABLE BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/DEVITA






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