Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 032331 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 PM MST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WITH DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE DESERTS RANGING FROM 112 TO
115 DEGREES. MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL RETURN MAINLY TO ARIZONA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ALONG WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS. FORECAST
HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL HIT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS
112 DEGREES F FOR PHOENIX AND 114 FOR YUMA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE LOWER DESERTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TUE AND WED. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AZ THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS DIRECT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST AZ...WHICH
SPREADS EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME BOTH MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL AZ FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY...RENEWING
THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.

MONDAY...
MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROF TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AZ FROM MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE FORECAST THESE INVERTED TROFS TO
MOVE INTO AZ A LITTLE TOO FAST. PERHAPS TUE MAY BE THE BIG DAY
INSTEAD. WE WILL REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT /EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 20KTS/ DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STARTING THURSDAY MOISTURE FLOW FROM MEXICO WILL RETURN MAINLY TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE
DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE BREEZES GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
     AZZ020>023-025>028.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     CAZ031>033.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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