Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 180350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE PURVIEW OF THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SO THEIR FINAL ADVISORY ON THE STORM WAS
JUST ISSUED 800PM MST/1100 EDT. ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON THE STORMS AND
MORE-SO IT`S IMPACTS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER. WPC HAS THE CIRCULATION CENTER POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN
AZ BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WHILE WE HAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...IT WAS SPOTTY AND RATHER
LOCALIZED IN TERMS OF IMPACTS HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND LATEST HI-
RES/SYNOPTIC MODEL FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
THURSDAY...WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ DESERTS THIS EVENING. FOOTHILL/HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST EAST
OF PHOENIX ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRC WINDS OF ODILE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENT WITH THE TERRAIN. 18/00Z
KPSR WEATHER BALLOON STILL SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
TO MID ATMO LAYERS WITH A PWAT OF 1.83 INCHES THIS EVENING...STILL 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. AS
SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY
EVENING FOR AZZ024.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAKER SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED JUST
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS HOLDING OVER THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. MORE BROAD CLOUD SHIELD SPANS FROM EAST OF
PHOENIX AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO NM WHERE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR THE REST
OF THIS EVENING...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A REMOTE POP-UP
SHOWER COULD DEVELOP BACK AROUND THE ODILE CIRCULATION...WARRANTING
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUD WORDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS OUT
WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS ANY MOISTURE IN PLAY FROM ODILE FURTHER
REMOVES ITSELF FROM THE AREA AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER POP-UP IN THE STILL TROPICAL
MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO
WARRANT VCSH IN TAFS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8KFT AND POSSIBLY A BIT THICKER ABOVE 15KFT. BY
THURSDAY MIDDAY...WEST WINDS COULD FINALLY SET INTO THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE LINGERING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE DESERT SURFACE
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
DRYING FROM THE WEST COULD INFLUENCE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SO
WILL COVER WITH VCSH IN 06Z TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

PARTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 6KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP SOUTHERLY HEADINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE...WITH SPEED UP TO
10KTS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




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