Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 260350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...MUCH LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 0345Z THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OUTLYING DESERT AREAS
/UPPER 70S/ BUT READINGS WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF PHOENIX WERE STILL
IN THE MID 80S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE INCOMING 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST GOING TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED
ON BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL NO MAJOR
CHANGES NECESSARY. FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT ALSO LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL APPROACH NORMAL
MEANING ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAYS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT MODELED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUPPORT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD SUPPORTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE
101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID
TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



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