Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPSR 291120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE INTERESTING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS OVER AZ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS...DESPITE THE ONGOING DRYING...NEARLY MONSOONISH...
AND...IF MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR AUG THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.  INSTEAD...THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING WAS MINUS 2 C...SORT OF
LIKE THOSE SEEN AT HILO HAWAII DURING MID SUMMER...I.E. UNUSUALLY
WARM ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST AZ.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
500 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE AND PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE AIRMASS UNDER A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE 112 DEGREE F FORECAST AT YUMA TODAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO
ONE DEGREE SHY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY
MONSOONISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. PERIODS OF CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MORE USUAL TIMES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
WESTERLIES...AND THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE ONLY SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE DISTRICT. AS
SUCH...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STAY
SLIM TO NONE...WITH ONLY MODEST CHANCES BEGINNING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.