Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KPSR 230421 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 920 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION...
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RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. SOME MINOR CIRRUS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT TO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES BY FRIDAY WITH SOME SPOTS GETTING VERY CLOSE TO...OR REACHING...RECORDS FOR THE DATE INCLUDING PHOENIX. IN FACT...WE WONT BE THAT FAR FROM RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ECLIPSE VIEWING...POSSIBLY SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS. PER NASA...START TIME WILL BE 221 PM...MAX WILL BE 337 PM...END WILL BE 445 PM. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DEW POINT/RH FORECASTS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
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&& .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 238 PM...
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SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS. VERY LIGHT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL SPILL OVER INTO ARIZONA BUT WILL NOT POSE AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST ACROSS PHOENIX. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RISING HEIGHTS STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...2-4 DM EACH DAY...AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OVER 590MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW A STEADY WARMING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY FRIDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASE IN MOISTURE VALUES JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH PWAT VALUES AS OBSERVED BY SATELLITE READING AROUND 1.5 INCHES...IS UPWARDS OF 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL. QUITE A STRONG...COLD...AND MOIST TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST...BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE AS THE STRONGEST IMPACT AREA FOR THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL FALLING HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 DM BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO 3-5 DM OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND COMPARED WITH WHAT WE WILL SEE LATE THIS WEEK...NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THIS WEEK`S FORECAST BUT ONLY MEASURING UP AT SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. AS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. A MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRETTY HIGH LCL HEIGHT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATER THIS WEEK... DATE PHOENIX ---- ------- OCT 24 96 IN 2007 OCT 25 96 IN 1990 && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY CLIMATE...MO AVIATION...AJ FIRE WEATHER...MO

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