Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KPSR 291434 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 735 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIFT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD ADD MORE HEAT TO THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPS PEAK ON SUNDAY. CURRENT DRY AND HOT FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...455 AM MST... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF 0830Z. THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/. ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND SFC WINDS GNLY LIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL FRI 102 112 99 SAT 106 114 99 SUN 107 109 100 YUMA FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL FRI 102 115 99 SAT 104 120 100 SUN 103 113 100 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/LEINS AVIATION...NOLTE FIRE WEATHER...MO CLIMATE...LEINS

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