Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KPSR 300953 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 255 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA NEXT THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE WANTED TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER WE THINK HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FUNDAMENTALLY SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SLIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS AND NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH WILL BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 10 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY. CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 10 AM PDT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TODAY. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ AVIATION...PERCHA/CB FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA

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