Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KPSR 190829 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 128 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN STATES. && .DISCUSSION...
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EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THURSDAYS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WERE ALREADY SPILLING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEVADA AS OF 08Z BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...NO REPORTS OF FOG QUITE YET. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...I WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WILL LIKELY BE A RACE AGAINST TIME AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE LOWER AZ DESERTS MIXED. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGING /AT LEAST 2-3 STDEV ABOVE CLIMO/ WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINED A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. LOOKING AT TODAYS 00Z RUNS...BOTH OF THESE MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD STILL COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL MAINTAIN SINGLE DIGIT CLIMO-LIKE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT THIS POINT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM.
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&& .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA OBS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN SLOPES...THAT EVENING IR COULD BE MISSING. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL SESTRLY HEADINGS...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF KIPL. AREA DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH AND THOSE COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OVERNIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS...WESTERLY FOR KIPL AND NORTHERLY FOR KBLH...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SPEEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER STARTING LATE SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...LEINS AVIATION...NOLTE FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

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