Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KPSR 240315 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION...
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STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY. PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE MONTH. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/... COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DATE PHOENIX ---- ------- FRI OCT 24 96 IN 2007 SAT OCT 25 96 IN 1990 && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

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