Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
381 FNUS55 KPSR 160824 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 124 AM MST Thu May 16 2024 .DISCUSSION... A weak weather system passing through Arizona today will again bring high based showers and isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain areas, mainly across eastern Arizona. The main potential impact is expected to be gusty erratic outflow winds which could extend as far west as the Phoenix area. Otherwise, look for continued hot temperatures, afternoon breeziness and MinRHs around 15% over the lower deserts to 20-30% over Gila Co. Drier conditions will filter in starting Friday ending any rain chances and lowering MinRHs closer to 10% over the lower deserts. The combination of dry fine fuels, low RHs, and occasional breeziness could create elevated fire danger conditions. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-162030- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 124 AM MST Thu May 16 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................90-96. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................14-18 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......11800 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 10 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................63-73. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................32-47 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 15 to 25 mph in the evening becoming 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................94-101. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................11-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......11700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 10 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 64-74. Highs 95-101. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 63-73. Highs 94-99. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 90-97. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 88-95. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 90-96. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-162030- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 124 AM MST Thu May 16 2024 /124 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................95-100. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................12-19 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........7900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........Southwest 9 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................65-70. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................47-65 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................98-103. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................12-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8000 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 12 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Very good. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 64-69. Highs 97-102. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 62-67. Highs 96-101. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 60-65. Highs 92-97. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 59-64. Highs 90-95. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-65. Highs 92-97. $$ AZZ133-162030- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 124 AM MST Thu May 16 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. * Max Temperature.................73-90. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-29 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........3 very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................50-65. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................42-64 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................80-95. * 24 hr trend..................6 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................12-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 53-67. Highs 82-97. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 52-67. Highs 81-95. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 50-65. Highs 78-92. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 49-63. Highs 76-90. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 49-63. Highs 78-92. $$ CAZ232-162030- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 124 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................92-101. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................10-18 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................65-72. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................36-65 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................93-103. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................10-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 64-72. Highs 92-101. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 90-100. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 58-67. Highs 86-95. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 58-66. Highs 86-94. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-67. Highs 87-96. $$ CAZ230-162030- Joshua Tree National Park- 124 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................83-97. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................9-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............North 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................57-70. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................32-43 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming southwest after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................81-97. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................12-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 53-67. Highs 80-96. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 50-65. Highs 79-95. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 73-90. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 75-90. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 51-63. Highs 76-91. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Thursday May 23rd through Saturday May 25th: Near normal temperatures and near median precipitation.