Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 310732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS...
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET
TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR
TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND
KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED
TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT
AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING. STILL...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
THINNEST. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING...LOOK
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
MAINLY IN THE TRIAD AREA (KGSO AND KINT)...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THIS WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP


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