Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 202251
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the
region for the start of the work week. A strong cold front will bring
increasing rain chances for the middle of the week, then move
east and off the coast by Friday, with cooler drier weather in its
wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 PM Sunday...

Little if any changes required to the near term forecast.

A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface and an expanding area
of high pressure aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions across
central through tonight. Most locations will drop below 80 degrees
by 11 PM with overnight temperatures primarily in the lower 70s.
Patchy fog is probable overnight across the region with the light
fog most likely to occur across the coastal plain and Sandhills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The forecast looks fairly good for Monday and the eclipse time,
thanks to ridging both sfc and aloft.  While the pattern suggests
dry fair weather, forecast soundings suggest that some mostly-
shallow cu may form as the afternoon progresses, with a notable
increase in H8-H7 moisture west of the Triangle region, while areas
from Raleigh south and east remain drier in that layer.  That would
suggest the greatest coverage of cu clouds west of the Triangle and
lesser cu coverage east, and best sky conditions from Raleigh south
and east. With similar airmass as today, look for afternoon highs in
lower 90s along with heat index readings in the mid to upper 90s.
Lows Monday night 70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Tue/Tue Night: High pressure will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic
coast and a cold front will progresses southeast through the Ohio
valley Tue/Tue night as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens in advance
of an upper level low progressing across southern Ontario. As a
result, rich low-level moisture will return to the Carolinas via
southerly return flow and isold convection will be possible invof a
pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Appalachians Tue aft/eve.
Expect above normal highs 90-94F, warmest Sandhills, with lows Tue
night in the lower/mid 70s.

Wed-Thu Night: The aforementioned cold front will progress slowly SE
through NC Wed/Wed night. The front may stall invof the Carolina
coast Wed Night/Thu as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the
region, however, high pressure should build southeastward into
central NC Thu night as troughing aloft shifts to the eastern
seaboard. Expect near normal temperatures Wed/Wed night, followed by
below normal temperatures Thu/Thu night. Expect above normal chances
for convection in assoc/w the front Wed/Wed night. Uncertainty
increases w/regard to the position of the stalled front on Thu.
Above normal chances for convection should persist in far E/SE
portions of the state, including portions of the SE Coastal Plain.
Lingering precipitation should exit from NW-SE or W-E Thu night.

Fri-Sun: At this time, expect below normal temperatures and dry
conditions Fri through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds
eastward from the Great Lakes into New England and a pronounced
surface ridge extends southward into the Carolinas, maintaining a
cool/dry airmass over central portions of the state. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions with scattered coverage clouds, along with wind aob
10kt, are expected through the 24 hour taf period.  The exception
may be KFAY and KRWI where a brief period of MVFR fog is possible
between 21/09Z and 21/13Z.

Outlook: The threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers or
thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus is expected
to increase a bit on Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to
approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursdays
bringing a greater chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...np


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