Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 162319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
719 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday
and will persist into the first part of the weekend.


As of 719 PM Monday...

Low-level dry air advection in the wake of the cold front will
result in continuation of the west-east clearing trend through the
evening with clear skies expected everywhere overnight.

Strong CAA overnight will result in much cooler
temperatures than we have become accustomed to over the past couple
of weeks, with jacket/sweater wearing temperatures down into the
lower to mid 40s tonight.


As of 250 PM Monday...

With the cold front exiting to the east high pressure will begin to
build over the area with the high centered to the northwest of the
forecast area. This will leave very light northeasterly flow over
much of the CWA but plenty of insolation as the airmass is dry
enough to inhibit any kind of cloud cover. Even so high temperatures
are only expected to rise into the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon.

With a very dry airmass in place and mostly calm and clear
conditions overnight, Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning is
shaping up to be the coldest night of the season so far. Thickness
values in the Triad will get down to 1329 m which translates to a
low temperature potentially as low as the mid 30s. There is the
potential for some patchy frost in the rural areas west of highway 1
but a couple of mitigating factors could be the lack of moisture and
also the potential for a very light stir of wind as positioning of
the surface and 700 mb high will not be exactly ideal. Will mention
in the HWO for now but no plans for a frost advisory at this time.
Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s with warmest temps in the southeast.


As of 250 PM Monday...

The long term forecast will be dominated by high pressure anchored
in place over central NC. This will give us several days of blue
skies and cool temperatures. Expect that temperature trend to
moderate through the week a little with highs starting out in the
upper 60s to low 70s early in the week rising to the mid to upper
70s by the end of the weekend. The next slight chance for rain comes
into the forecast early next week as a potential low pressure system
moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico but there is a huge amount of
uncertainty in the long term forecast regarding this feature at this
time. Lows during this time moderating from the low to mid 40s up to
the mid 50s to upper 60s by the end of the forecast period.


As of 719 PM Monday...

There is high confidence that low-level dry cold air advection in the
wake of the cold front will result in VFR conditions through the
forecast period.  period. Winds will remain from the north at 5 to 8
kts with occasional gusts possible into the lower teens Tuesday

Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure will
build into the region tonight and Tuesday and will persist across
the area into the weekend, resulting in a prolonged period of dry
VFR conditions.




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