Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 250722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A cold front will drop south into the region through the day
today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday.


As of 245 AM Tuesday...

A cold front will slide south into the region through today and into
tonight as the surface high to the north moves eastward through New
England. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue moving
eastward out over the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to once again
build into the region. Expect highs in the upper 80s north to mid
90s south. Overnight lows in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south.
Showers and thunderstorms could develop along and ahead of the front
during the afternoon and evening, however coverage is expected to be
isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south.


As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be the most comfortable
day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat
index values for much of the region.

The aforementioned surface high will continue migrating eastward out
over the Atlantic through Wednesday night as the next frontal system
develops over the Midwest. Models suggest the front pivoting from a
west-east orientation to a more north-south orientation as it shifts
eastward. Aloft, weak ridging will persist with a residual surface
trough to our south. With the front lingering over the region and
continued northerly flow, highs will top out in the mid to upper
80s, with a few pockets of low 90s possible. Overnight lows once
again in the upper 60s to low 70s. Convection will once again be
possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather
could remain largely dry through the period.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day as upper flow over
central NC remains zonal and a surface low passes to the north of
the area. The attendant cold front to this low is expected to drop
southward across the area on Friday. The upper trough becomes deeper
than in yesterday`s simulations and helps to now push the front
completely through the area by Saturday afternoon. This will keep
the best chances for showers and storms between 18z Friday through
12z Saturday. Continental high pressure to the northwest dries out
the area, keeping weather settled through Sunday before a wave out
of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a player early next week.

Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday will drop into
the mid 80s for the weekend into early next week. Lows in the low to
mid 70s early in the time frame will drop into the upper 60s to low
70s for the later stages of the long term forecast.


As of 150 AM Tuesday...

24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the
period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys at
KFAY and lesser so at KRWI during the pre-dawn hours. Any sub-vfr
conditions should clear up after sunrise. Broken VFR cigs may stick
around for much of the daytime hours in the far southeast (KFAY),
with scattered cloud cover expected elsewhere. A cold front will
approach and move into the region from the north today, isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms will be possible along and ahead
of it. Terminals that experience storms could see brief periods of
sub-vfr conditions, otherwise expect VFR conditions to dominate
through the period.

Looking ahead: Expect mainly VFR conditions to dominate, though
periods of sub-vfr conditions will be possible during the aft/eve
should showers/storms develop over a terminal. Chances for
convection will increase through the period. There will be an
increasing chances for early morning sub-vfr stratus to develop late
in the week and into the weekend.


The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension
Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through
Thursday or Friday.





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