Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011845 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST AS IT IS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. UNDER THE LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70 OVER THE SE. SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE 1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... CONTINUED HOT AND MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHANGES LITTLE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE DOMINATE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE A WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE 1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. BY MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH ALLOWS THE COASTAL TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE DEMISE OF THE SFC HIGH MAY BE A LITTLE PREMATURE AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO WEAKENS SFC HIGHS OVER THE SE U.S. TOO QUICKLY. THUS EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SE...AND MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WHILE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE 50S-NEAR 60 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO A DEAMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W PROJECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THIS RELAXING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE WESTERLIES TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER JET TO CENTRAL NC WILL ALLOW S/WS AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES IN THIS FLOW TO POSSIBLY AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FEW S/WS WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL TO INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE ANY MORE THAN SCATTERED...THUS THE DRY CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC MAY PERSIST. PRIOR TO THE INCREASE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND HOT AS A MEAN WLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THIS SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WILL BE COMMON UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 MAY OCCUR DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN (SOUTHEAST OF KGSB AND KFAY) AND A CHANCE OF SOME DAYBREAK STRATUS/FOG AT KFAY AND KRWI. THE RAIN CHANCES ARE SO SMALL TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS. THE THREAT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG IS LIMITED WITH ONLY A SUBSET OF GUIDANCE INDICATING IT...MORE EMPHATICALLY AT KFAY. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE OCCURRENCE...SO WILL INCLUDE A SHORT TEMPO GROUP TO COVER IT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME VFR CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AT 4.5-6KFT AND PERHAPS SOME SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE AT KFAY AND KRWI LATE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS INLAND. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN AFTERNOON... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PATCHY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. -BLAES && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BLAES

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