Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 210800 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 355 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NC FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY... TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ON OUT OF NASH AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES... POSSIBLY AFFECTING WILSON AND WAYNE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TRAINING HAS BEEN WANING AS WELL AS THE WINDS QUICKLY VEER WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING COMING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY AS IT BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT DAA/CAA. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70-75 RANGE. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WITH ALSO ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY... CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE EXPECTED GUSTY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1212 AM TUESDAY... A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN MOISTURE SOURCES ARE FORECAST TO BE CUT OFF AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ONLY A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO OR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH THE FRONT. LOWS GENERALLY FROM 50 NORTH INTO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH/ AND TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND THE EASTERN STATES AS WELL WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY GUARANTEE BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POP WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY... ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF THE KRDU/KRWI AREAS BEFORE 08Z/THIS MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT/RAH SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...BADGETT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.