Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 020728 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 PM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX OVER THE TN VALLEY IS DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION... AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. INITIAL VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MAX THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH...CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THUS SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE SOUTH. THUS PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM LOW END LIKELY FAR NORTH-NW TO CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH. THIS...IN TURN...WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE...TO THE UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 SOUTH WHERE PARTIAL AND FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE SOME BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ACROSS THE SOUTH...IF ENOUGH PARTIAL SUN OCCURS...AVAILABLE DOWNDRAFT CAPE MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TEMPORARY LULL POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN US. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO CENTRAL NC. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY. HIGH PW AND MODEST MID- LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/ SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC AND RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.