Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301145 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST ON SAT.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY... A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY- EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT. AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY... STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW... DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST LO-MAX RDU 50/1925 GSO 45/1925 FAY 48/1988 && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY... ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...SEC CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...MWS

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