Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251520 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1020 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and move offshore by early evening. Colder high pressure will blow into the area later today and tonight. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM SATURDAY... Deepening cyclone the Upper Great Lakes will lift north into Ontario and Quebec, with associated strong mid-upper trough over the OH and TN Valleys progress eastward into the Mid-Atlantic States today. Attendant cold front over the mtns this morning will push east across central NC this afternoon and will move offshore by the evening. Temperatures will approach record territory once again, especially across the south-southeastern tier where it will remain mostly dry. Highs ranging from mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE. It will be breezy as well, with sustained winds of 15 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30kts. With the better dynamics and deeper moisture moving off to the north, the broken line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving off the southern Appalachians of Va and NC has significantly weaken over the past several hours. However, expect a resurgence in convection over the central-eastern Piedmont and into the northern Coastal Plain during the early to mid afternoon hours owing to weak to moderate destabilization(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/Kg)in response to steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.50 C/Km, left behind by the EML that pushed through the area overnight/earlier this morning. Impressive 50 to 60kts of unidirectional shear, coupled with inverted-V sounding profiles and DCape values of 1000 to 1200 J/Kg from the entrainment of dry air aloft will make it possible for an isolated severe storm to produce damaging straight line winds across the northern/northeastern tier, with even 40 to 50 mph winds possible in the heaviest shower. Convection should be exiting the area by 00z, strong post-frontal dry cold air advection Friday evening/night will result in abrupt clearing and seasonable overnight lows in the lower 30s NW to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 407 AM SATURDAY... High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday should reach the 55-62 range, with lows in the 30s. Scattered frost is possible, mainly in rural and low lying areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM Saturday... A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves offshore. However, cloud cover will increase across the area as a deep southwesterly flow develops. While this will lead to a warming trend it will also spell a return to unsettle weather with lots of clouds and periods of showers/storms. The first such disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft is expected to move across the area late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Expect we will see an area of showers and perhaps a few storms move across the area during this time. A general lull in precip is expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, before a more significant s/w is expected to cross the area along with a strong cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. High temps ahead of the front area expected to be in the 60s and 70s, with possibly a few lower 80s across the southern and eastern half of the area on Wednesday. Lows will follow the same trend, generally in the upper 40s to 50s. Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a enforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in upper 50s to 60s, with lows by Friday morning generally in the 30s. High Friday are expected to be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: IFR/LIFR visbys at KFAY/KRWI will dissipate by around 13Z or so. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected to continue this morning. South to southwesterly winds will increase this morning in advance of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to increase into the 15 to 20 mph range by mid to late morning, with gusts of up 27-33 mph possible late morning into the afternoon. A cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms will move across the area this afternoon. The best convective coverage will be across northern portions of the area, where we could see a few strong to damaging wind gusts accompanying the strongest storms. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible with any convection. Winds will veer to westerly just behind a cold front that will cross the area immediately behind the showers/storms during the afternoon hours, then to northwesterly by around 00Z. Wind will decrease to around 7 to 13 mph range by this evening, with some gusts of around 20-23 mph still possible through mid evening. Outlook: High pressure will build in from the west tonight through Sun, moving east and offshore Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for February 25: Greensboro: 81 (1930) Raleigh: 82 (1930) Fayetteville: 85 (1930) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield CLIMATE...Badgett

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