Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260807 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Sunday... Patchy low cloudiness around the periphery of the drier (<65 Td) airmass advecting in complements of northeast flow has been very slowly expanding overnight. Clear skies and near zero dewpoint depression in the northeast will permit development of patchy fog in the northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain, with quick dispersion after sunrise. Similarly elsewhere, expect some increased coverage in the low cloudiness through the remainder of the overnight with clearing by mid morning. As such, mostly sunny to sunny skies are on tap Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 80s across the northern tier to upper 80s across the south. Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Sunday... Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either side of 90. The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC. Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow. Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage and continued southwest flow prior to fropa. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday... A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early evening as the front moves through. The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period, where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the eastern US. This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary. Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 405 AM Sunday... Very patchy MVFR cloudiness continues to try and expand across central NC, and MVFR fog has developed in the northeast which is under a cooler, drier northeast flow. Predawn IFR fog is possible at RDU and RWI, which will burn off by 14Z, otherwise a brief period MVFR ceilings are possible 08-14Z. Continued advection of drier air is expected areawide today, resulting in VFR conditions from mid- morning onward. Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail Monday, with chances of convection and associated adverse aviation conditions increasing Monday night through Tuesday as our next frontal system moves through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...mlm NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...np AVIATION...mlm

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