Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241128 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 725 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY... QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART... LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID 70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING... AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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