Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 282250 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will progress through central NC overnight, then stall near the coast Wednesday. The front will begin to return northward as a warm front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 PM... The main weather hazard tonight will be fog, with a potential of dense fog over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain later tonight as the cold front stalls. The widespread showers have pushed to the coast with lingering scattered showers lingering as far west as Raleigh and Fayetteville as of 600 PM. The skies were slowly clearing from NW to SE through the Piedmont. This clearing process will be slow but will make into through much of the eastern Piedmont by late evening. This will occur as a cold front slows as it pushes into the NW Piedmont. The front and the clearing process will stall over the eastern sections including the Coastal Plain overnight. With at least some clearing expected to push into the Triangle and Fayetteville areas, patchy dense fog appears likely overnight. This is due to the clearing skies, calm conditions, and saturated ground from the 1 to locally 3 inches of rain today. We will update the Hazardous Weather Outlook to add the possibility of dense fog for the Triangle, Fayetteville, and Goldsboro later tonight. Lows generally 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /wEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 pM Tuesday... The cold front currently moving through PA/WV/KY will move into central NC later tonight and effectively stall across the CWA on Wednesday. With a temporary reprieve from the 2 inch PW plume, guidance suggests much more isolated convection during the afternoon, confined mainly near and southeast of the boundary, where modest CAPE will remain present given dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70. However, a speed max currently over the northern Plains will dive south across the Appalachians by late afternoon, with modest pressure falls on the 1.5 PVU surface, suggesting a decent upper tropospheric wave that could induce more convection than the models indicate. This would also likely enhance deep layer shear and severe potential. highs will be near normal, 88-91. Late afternoon convection in the mountains may roll into the western Piedmont during the evening but should generally dissipate as it moves into the less favorable and drier airmass in the Piedmont. Will maintain just a slight chance of a storm overnight given the presence of the aforementioned boundary, with lows in the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The stalled boundary over NC on Wednesday will drift back to the north on Thursday, with yet another disturbance progged to move through the base of the broad upper trough over the eastern US. This should again provide some enhancement to diurnal convection and mid-level flow, resulting in scattered convection and isolated severe storms. Beyond Thursday, the upper trough will continue to be reinforced by low-amplitude shortwaves, with the stalled frontal zone (reinforced by Saturday) meandering over the region. Models indicate a pair of disturbances on Saturday and Sunday that may lead to the best chance of diurnal enhancement of convection, and given PW still near 2 inches and multiple rounds of precip, there could be a minor flooding threat to evolve over the weekend or even into early next week. Temps will be within a few degrees of climo for most of the extended period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 650 PM Tuesday... 24-hr TAF Period: Sub-VFR conditions associated with lingering shower activity at eastern terminals (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI) are expected to lift to VFR by or shortly after 00Z (beginning of the TAF period) as showers dissipate and shift toward the Carolina coast. At the KINT/KGSO terminals where minimal rainfall occurred today, a dry airmass remains in place in the lower levels, and it is unclear whether or not fog or low stratus will develop prior to sunrise Wed. Further east at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI where persistent rainfall during the day has moistened the low levels, dense fog and/or low stratus development is likely to occur once mid-level cloud cover erodes/dissipates and skies clear from NW-SE during the overnight hours. Some uncertainty persists w/regard to the precise timing/degree of clearing, however, confidence is sufficient to indicate deteriorating conditions at eastern terminals between midnight and sunrise Wed. Conditions are expected to rapidly improve within several hours after sunrise Wed, with VFR conditions at all terminals by 13-15Z. Isold to sct convection cannot be ruled out across portions of central NC near the end of the 00Z TAF period, however, confidence is insufficient to warrant mention at this time. Looking ahead: With broad cyclonic flow aloft expected to prevail this week, expect a daily potential for late afternoon/evening (primarily) convection and morning stratus/fog, especially at terminals affected by convection during the prior aft/eve. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD NEAR TERM...Badgett/KCP SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...VINCENT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.