Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260729 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A narrow ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Appalachians through Wed, while Hurricane Maria tracks northward, offshore the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a dry cold front will approach from the northwest, then cross NC late Thu and Thu night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Monday... High clouds streaking over NC, toward the NW off the top of Maria, will persist overnight. But more significant will be the low clouds, currently noted by observations and prelim/non-op GOES-16 imagery over the central and northern coastal area of NC. These are expected to push westward over central NC over the next several hours, bringing a trend to overcast skies over all but the far western CWA (western Piedmont) overnight. Spotty showers are currently located just east of the forecast area, and while a few of these may work into the coastal plain tonight, they would be isolated, very shallow, and unlikely to generate measurable precip. As such, will have just isolated sprinkles over the far east overnight. Using a blend of current trends and high res temp guidance, and factoring in the usual cooler spots of the last couple of nights (far western and northern Piedmont, which also will see fewer clouds and better radiational cooling), expect lows from the low 60s NW to around 70 SE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... Maria is expected to slowly lift northward and remain a couple hundred miles off the NC coast. Thus, central NC will remain well west of the track of the hurricane. Most locations across the area will remain dry, with only a few light showers associated with some weakening outer bands possible Tuesday-Tuesday night across the far eastern Coastal Plain counties. The main impacts will be mostly cloudy to overcast skies and some breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph mainly across the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills. High temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 AM Monday... Thursday will be our final unseasonably warm day as Maria accelerates eastward and a dry cold front pushes south down the Atlantic coast. Highs Thursday will reach the mid and upper 80s, with some lower 90s possible along the southern tier of central NC. Strong cold air advection will be getting underway Thursday night as high pressure builds east across the Mid Atlantic. This high pressure will then surge south down the Atlantic seaboard over the weekend, with highs falling to mostly upper 70s on Friday, and even further to mostly the mid to upper 70s though Monday. Mins will similarly fall from 60 to 65 Friday morning to the low and mid 50s Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ As of 230 AM Tuesday... A shield of IFR-MVFR ceilings, in moist nely low level flow on the nwrn periphery of Hurricane Maria, will continue to edge wwd, and lower, through 14Z. They are expected to reach as far west as RDu and FAY by 09Z; and some may occur on at least a temporary basis around and especially just east of GSO after 12Z. The associated ceilings will then lift and scatter to VFR by this afternoon, though they may persist in the 2000-3000 ft range all day at RWI. The low clouds will then edge wwd once again tonight, in a similar fashion as right now, though they will likely not make it much farther wwd than RWI at that time. It will also become breezy with diurnal heating today, mainly at RWI/FAY/RDU, owing to the MSL pressure gradient between Maria and high pressure centered over the Appalachians. Lastly, an isolated shower will be possible this afternoon, mainly at RWI. Outlook: Any lingering IFR-MVFR ceilings Wed morning at ern TAF sites will quickly lift and scatter to VFR, as Maria accelerates ewd and loses influence (Ie. the flow will assume a drier nwly component), with a subsequent long stretch of mainly VFR conditions for the next several days. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures across central NC for September 27 and 28. RECORD MAX (9/27) RECORD MAX (9/28) RDU 94 / 1998 95 / 1998 GSO 90 / 2007 92 / 1939 FAY 94 / 1986 95 / 1933 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...BSD/Franklin LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH

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