Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291834 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EVEN WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE (SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS)...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. POPS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OR EVEN RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW WHEN TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 35 DEGREES PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE FOR A LONGER TIME FRAME...A SHORT FUSED FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST... LIKELY BETWEEN 09-16Z. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS...THE PREDOMINANT CEILING TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/DJF NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...KRD

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