Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220656 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE MID 70S...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...AFTER DECOUPLING EARLY...MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE...CONCURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND PUSHING A WEAK SURGE OF REINFORCING COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 70S NORTH TO TO UPPER 70S SOUTH...DUE TO STRONG SUN AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUMP UPWARDS WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...MLM SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...MLM

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