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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 211600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A moist southwesterly return flow will prevail over the Carolinas
through the end of the work week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 1200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Central NC remains at the southern periphery of the westerlies in
broad cyclonic flow aloft. As of 15Z, shower activity assoc/w a
seasonably moist low-level airmass and DPVA attendant a small
amplitude wave aloft has largely ended as the aforementioned wave
progresses into eastern NC. Expect little chance for additional
precip to develop this afternoon through tonight as a much drier mid-
level airmass advects eastward over the Carolinas amidst weak
forcing throughout the column. Expect highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, lows tonight in the lower 70s. -Vincent
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mid and upper level moisture is forecast to increase tonight and
Thursday as the mid/upper level ridge axis slowly shifts to our NE.
As this occurs, a SW flow aloft and slowly falling height will bring
moisture and lift back over much of the western two-thirds of NC
Thursday afternoon. With stronger heating and more sun expected
Thursday, highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most areas.
MLCapes will reach 1500-2000 J/KG during peak heating. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially over the western
Piedmont where the proximity of the Appalachian lee surface trough
will aid moisture convergence/lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...

Continued unsettled weather is expected for at least the first half
of the medium range, possibly lingering into early next week.

The main track of disturbances is generally expected to shift back
north and west of the area on Friday. Thus, with the mid to upper
level ridge extending northward across our region we should see a
bulk of the convection steered around our area from west to north.
However, the latest GFS continues to show a band of heavier precip
across northern portions of our area during the morning. Thus, for
now will maintain high chance/low end likely pops across northern
portions of our area for Friday morning, with chance pops elsewhere.
Highs Friday area expected to generally range from the upper 80s to
around 90.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Cindy are expected to move from the lower
MS river valley into the TN valley region Friday night, before
shifting eastward and across the Mid-Atlantic region. Questions
region in how quickly Cindy`s remnants will move across our area.
Though the latest GFS and ECMWF now show a lull in precip Friday
night, before the remnants of Cindy cross central NC on Saturday
(which would result in at least some severe threat). However, the
influence from a northern stream trough and strength of the
lingering circulation will play a key role in how much impact we see
from the remnants. The latest GFS has trended drier (with the ECMWF
no in yet for early next week at this time) for late weekend into
early next week. Given the rather low confidence in how much push of
dry air we will see behind the remnants of Cindy on Sunday, will
continue to show a lingering threat of precip into early next week,
especially with a deep trough developing across the eastern half of
the county.

Highs should be in warmest this weekend (mid/upper 80s to lower 90s)
to coolest at the end of the period (Tuesday upper 70s/lower 80s).
Lows will follow a similar trend, 70s at the beginning of the period
to upper 50s/60s near the end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 645 AM Wednesday...

IFR conditions are expected to become MVFR then VFR between 15z and
18z today. Areas of rain will taper off through 15z. A return to VFR
conditions are expected this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook: IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS are expected again between 09Z and
13z/Thu. A return to VFR conditions in general Thursday morning,
with scattered  MVFR conditions in showers/storms at times late
Thursday through Saturday morning.

Friday through Saturday, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected as the remnants of TS Cindy approach from
the TN Valley late Friday and cross the region into Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett