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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 161744
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
144 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region this morning and
reach the coast by late this afternoon. Cool high pressure will
build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the
first part of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 AM Monday...

Surface cold front and accompanying 50 to 75 mile wide band of
showers, currently advancing east through the Triangle and central
parts of the state will continue to push east through the remainder
of the morning and into the early afternoon. The band will result in
a 3 to 4 window of mostly light rain/shower activity with rainfall
amounts averaging between 0.10-.20", with isolated higher amounts of
near 0.50" within the heavier/more convective elements.

Expect occasional post-frontal wind gusts from the north at 10 to 15
MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH behind the front. Areas along
and east of the Triangle have already realized their daytime highs
with temperatures falling or holding in the 60s behind the front.
In the Triad,  post-frontal clearing later this afternoon will
allow temperatures to rebound a bit, warming back up into the
low to mid 60s.

Cold advection will force temperatures down well into the 40s
tonight. A stirring north to northeast wind tonight will keep
temperatures from bottoming out. Lows will range from 40 in some of
the colder spots across the interior Piedmont to the mid 40s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

The upper-level trough axis pushes east of central NC Tuesday
morning with increasing heights on Tuesday night. Cool high
pressure builds into region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly
clear skies are expected with perhaps some cirrus clouds,
mainly in east Tuesday morning. High temperatures will range in
63 to 69 range, generally about 5 degrees below normal. Lows
Tuesday night will be chilly as good radiational cooling
conditions and a chilly air mass will result in lows in the
upper 30s to around 40 although some of the cooler locations
across the Piedmont could have lows in the mid 30s and perhaps
some patchy frost. Latest NAM MET guidance provides lows of
39/37/34/33 at Greensboro/Raleigh/Burlington/Roxboro
respectively while the GFS MAV and EC MOS are several degrees
milder. May include a mention of isolated frost across the
Piedmont in the HWO for Wednesday morning. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain
entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast
period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and
highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows
reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 144 PM Monday...

Surface cold front and accompanying band of rain showers
and associated MVFR ceilings will exit eastern terminals(KRWI and
KFAY) between 19 to 20z. As we`ve seen at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU, post-
frontal low-level dry air advection will quickly (1 to 2 hours
immediately behind the front) scour out any lingering sub-VFR
ceilings, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
period.

Expect occasional northerly wind gusts into the teens/lower 20s
through the afternoon, with winds diminishing this evening
at 5 to 8 kts.

Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure
will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and will persist
across the area into the weekend, resulting in a prolonged period
of dry VFR conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...CBL