Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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047 FXUS62 KRAH 291932 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THEN SHIFT QUICKLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY. A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... LOW CLOUDS HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THOUGH SLOW EROSION SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE KRZZ AND KIXA VICINITIES BY 21Z. THUS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY EVENING. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CAUSE A FEW SPOTS OF DRIZZLE TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. MID TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 50S NE TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS WHERE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT/PARTIALLY SCATTER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 MAY NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CENTERED/MAXIMIZED. RAIN MAY BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY LOWER IN THE EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2K JOULES...DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWAT >1.5 INCHES...BUT SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...HENCE EXPECT LESSER COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN THE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT...UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH...IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WARM AND MOIST REGIME LINGERS INTO MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM 60 TO 65. SOUTHWEST FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY...NUDGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO PRODUCE DECREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL UNTIL TUESDAY...SO HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO MID WEEK. WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT UP THE FRONTAL ZONE IN INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY 70 TO 75 AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S. QUITE A SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LATE WEEK...WHETHER THE UPPER TROF ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OR WHETHER IT CUTS OFF...WITH A MEANDERING UPPER LOW LEFT OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS WE WILL REMAIN COOL...MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DRY IN PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... THE LAST VESTIGES OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF KRWI AND KRZZ WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN VFR PARAMETERS THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT/AFTER 05Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...WSS

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