


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --279 FXUS62 KRAH 300518 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 115 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week. A cold front will slowly cross North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, then get hung up along the Atlantic coastline into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 852 PM Sunday... Convection has largely come to an end across central NC, however we are still watching isolated pockets of showers and storms pop up in areas where instability still exists and where we have not been worked over from daytime activity. Two primary areas we are watching for the next several hours include the NW Piedmont, where storms are still developing tied to an upper low and surface boundary. Storms here along/south of the Triad could produce pockets of isolated brief heavy rain. The other area is along and northeast of the Triangle. A northward moving outflow boundary is aiding storm development across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Generally speaking, storm activity should wane by midnight as nocturnal stabilization takes over, though cannot rule out a few isolated cells along the VA border during the early overnight hours. Most guidance is not particularly confident on fog development, but given rains across the Triad, this seems plausible. Have not introduced this in the forecast, but would not be surprised if a few locations in this area see patchy fog early Monday. Otherwise, low temperatures in central NC to be in the upper 60s to low 70s NW to low to mid 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 136 PM Sunday... * Similar synoptic setup continues on Monday, with scattered showers and storms. The stalled upper low should begin to wash out tomorrow, eventually opening up a bit and moving through the western Piedmont tomorrow afternoon as broad longwave troughing moves eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Much like today, steady southerly flow, remnant boundaries, and 2000-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE will all set the stage favorably for diurnally driven convection across the area. Highest PoPs in the western Piedmont tomorrow afternoon, with at least some 20-30 percent values everywhere given the potential for colliding outflows and subsequent development. As for temperatures, look for highs to reach the low to mid 90s, with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 136 PM Sunday... * Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase late Tuesday afternoon through early Wed morning and bring a risk for strong to severe storms and isolated instances of flash flooding. A broad, low-amplitude trough will swing across Great Lakes Tues and towards the Newfoundland and Labrador Canadian Province by Wed morning. Generally weak H5 height falls and remnant MCVs within the base of the trough will be the primary driver in showers/storms Tues into Wed morning. A weak cold front, but more likely an effective cold front from convective outflow, is forecast to traverse the region late Tues afternoon through the overnight hours and result in showers/storms during this time. Dew points in the low/mid 70s should foster weak to moderate instability with diurnal heating over the Carolinas. Mid-level flow is generally weak (15 to 20 kts) and backing wind profile above 500mb should result in mostly unorganized convection, but strong to severe wind gusts may still be possible from isolated water-loaded downbursts underneath the deepest storms. Lingering elevated instability, a slow moving front, and PWAT around 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile) will make at least isolated instances of flash flooding a possibility late Tues into Wed morning. The effective front will slowly sag southeastward and eventually hang up over eastern NC and provide some additional focus for storms Wed before another weak front is forecast to push into the area and provide a reinforcing shot of relatively drier air for the latter half of the week. This should limit storms Thu-Sat and keep heat indices mostly in the 90s despite high temps recovering into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 115 AM Monday... 24 hour TAF period: With some rain having fallen in the vicinity of INT/GSO on Sunday, cannot rule out some reduced visibilities around those sites around sunrise. Coverage of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms should be slightly less than the last few days, but still high enough to warrant a PROB30 group at INT/GSO where the chances for precipitation are the highest. It also appears that all terminals will have the potential for gusts around 15-18 kt in the afternoon, with the wind remaining slightly elevated into the evening hours. Outlook: More widespread coverage of storms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a front slowly moves into the area. The highest chance for restrictions will come Tuesday night with IFR/LIFR ceilings possible. The bulk of showers/storms should have moved through by Wednesday night, although an isolated showers/storm cannot be ruled out at FAY/RWI Wednesday night and Thursday. After that, dry VFR conditions are predicted.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Swiggett/BLS AVIATION...Green