Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 151442 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 942 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will develop and track NE across the area early Friday morning, to off the srn middle Atlantic coast through Fri. High pressure will follow and migrate across the southeastern US through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 942 AM Friday... Morning analysis shows low pressure invof KHAT, with a variety of cloud layers farther west across central NC. NWP shows the sfc low quickly lifting to the NNE today, and as it does, our low level winds will turn to the W and allow high pressure and drier air to move in from the W. As such, dry weather expected the rest of today. With SW flow remaining aloft however, look for a fair amount of high clouds to stick around most of the day, as currently seen on satellite. We will see some CAA later today, and that combined with low-mid cloud across the Triad and NW Piedmont will keep temps confined to the lower 40s. Elsewhere, breaks in the clouds and subsequent sunshine should help temps rise to the upper 40s to lower 50s today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Friday... High pressure takes over by Friday night, keeping things calm, clear, and chilly as we progress into the weekend. Early morning temperatures saturday should be sub-freezing across the area, even as low as the mid 20s across the Triad and northern Piedmont Counties. Afternoon temperatures should be a bit warmer under a westerly breeze, settling near 50 for the northern portions of the forecast area, with mid 50s prevalent in the south and east. PoPs should remain near zero overnight saturday into sunday, with temperatures once again dipping just below freezing.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM Friday... The surface high will shift offshore on Sunday as a warm front lifts northward through the area Sunday eve/night, resulting in south- southeasterly return flow and warm advection into Central NC. Meanwhile aloft, the Southeast US will be under an upper level ridge, while a deep trough dominates over the Rockies and Southwest. A shortwave will break off from the low, migrating east-northeast through the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic. As of the latest model runs, the shortwave should ride the northern periphery of the ridge and stay north of the area Sunday/Sunday night. Temperatures will be on the rise, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Although the models are in much better agreement with the overall upper level pattern, there are still some significant differences in the temperature and precipitation forecasts. The closed low over the Southwest US will become more of an open trough on Monday, gradually deamplifying as it lifts ENEward into the Midwest Tuesday/Tuesday night. The southwest flow into Central NC will increase during this time, increasing the moisture advection and thus chances of precipitation. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop southward toward and into Central NC Tuesday/Tuesday night. The highest chances for and amount of rain will be across the south, ahead of the front. The weakening trough turned shortwave may enhance the precipitation along the front Tuesday night as it passes near/over the area. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. Expect a slight decrease in temperatures for mid week, albeit still a bit above normal (highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s Wed night and 40s Thu night). && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... VFR conditions should be prevalent throughout the TAF period, with the possible exception of brief MVFR stints in INT/GSO this morning thanks to lower CIGs as a stratus deck forms near the border of VA/NC. Confidence is lower at the location of this cloud layer formation, as some guidance keeps the lowest ceilings north of the TAF sites. Have held mention of a lower deck, but that may need to be amended closer to 2,500 feet if stratus deck dips further south. Also have kept short lived reduced VSBYs in FAY just after daybreak, as the site will be the first to clear out of the mid deck that was present overnight. Otherwise, expect improving conditions as time continues, with little changes expected through the end of the TAF period. VFR+ is expected to continue through Sunday morning. The next threat for sub VFR parameters is expected late Sunday into early next week as a low pressure system approaches from the west-sw, introducing rain showers back to the forecast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JJM

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