Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261928 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Near term forecast on track with just minor adjustments to temperature/dewpoints/sky coverage. Wly flow aloft a result of central NC being in the base of broad upper level trough will maintain fair and dry conditions tonight. The approach of a minor s/w will sharpen the trough overnight, lowering heights 30-40m. This flow will eventually usher in areas of mid-high level cloudiness overnight, primarily over the Piedmont counties. Min temps generally in the 60-65 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The s/w cross central NC late Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Lift associated with the system, coupled with afternoon heating and available moisture should spark the development of a few showers by mid day across the Piedmont. This convective threat will spread into the Sandhills and coastal plain where coverage may be enhanced due to timing and slightly better low level moisture. Current CAM solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. Capped PoP at 30 percent east of highway 1 Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday evening. Variably cloudy skies and patchy showers will yield temperatures several degrees below normal for late June. High temps Tuesday upper 70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast. The system will exit our eastern periphery early Tuesday evening with rain chances decreasing shortly after sunset. Subsidence in the wake of the system will lead to decreasing cloudiness with mostly clear skies anticipated after midnight. Where showers do occur Tuesday, residual moisture left in their wake under clearing skies may lead to the formation of patchy fog. Min temps generally 55-60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week. At the surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels. Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach sufficient levels. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Saturday/... As of 140 PM Monday... VFR parameters expected across central NC through Tuesday. The approach of a mid-upper level disturbance will result in patchy mid- high level cloudiness later tonight through Tuesday. Enough lift may exists to cause a few showers to develop late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. However, occurrence at any one TAF sites appears minimal at this time, so will omit from forecast. Sfc winds through Tuesday afternoon will be less than 8 kts. In addition, ceilings will be at or above 6000 ft. High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday, then linger overhead through Thursday night. As this high exits offshore Friday, the return sly flow will advect a moist unstable air mass into our region, setting the stage for scattered afternoon-evening convection, and early morning low clouds and fog. Thus, the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will increase, beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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