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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 081145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS... 
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

A MUCH DIFFERENT DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT FIRST...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW
FREEZING...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/FREEZING
FOG IS BEING MONITORED (PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) AS THE GROUND IS VERY WET...WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM AND
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. FURTHER EAST...THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP
SLIGHTLY TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND
MUCH WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES MAXING OUT JUST ABOVE 1350M AND VIRTUALLY
FULL MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...CROSSING THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY IT. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT STIRRING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXITING OFF THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
DEEP ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVENTS COLD AIR FROM EVER REACHING THE
CAROLINAS...WITH CENTER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIDED BY LIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S ON SUNDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS ON
PAR GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AND
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTION OF AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WITH THE RIO GRANDE CLOSED
UPPER LOW.

THE ECMWF STILL LIES ON THE SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS LIES ON THE QUICKER AND LESS DEVELOPED
SIDE. WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL PHASE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...BUT REGARDLESS
OF EVENTUAL EVOLUTION...CENTRAL NC WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS...
POSSIBLY IN THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE...MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS
PRECIP INTO THE AREA...WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD