Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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964 FXUS62 KRAH 110607 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 207 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid air mass holds in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM Friday/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire and has been removed from the hazards section of the AFD below. Within the seasonably warm and humid airmass, low stratus and patchy fog is expected to develop over the area through early this morning. Lows will range from the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 PM Thursday... With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation should be across eastern counties instead of western counties. Considering the two rounds of heavy rain in the last week, one from Chantal on Sunday and a second round on Wednesday, the entire forecast area remains under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall, even though all locations have not previously received heavy rainfall this week. In addition, the entire forecast area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the primary threat - this should occur primarily during the late afternoon in the evening. Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1225 PM Thursday... The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms, although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60% chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 115 AM Friday... Lingering trailing stratiform rain on the backside of departing convection lingers around RWI and has finally pushed east of FAY. This activity has thus far prevented the degradation of cigs, but as it continues to dissipate, IFR to LIFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys are expected to fill in, which is already beginning to occur around RDU. At the Triad terminals, guidance indicates more of shallow fog signal, but how far they drop is uncertain. Opted to maintain MVFR vsby with FEW LIFR for now, but further amendments may be needed as this fog layer develops. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected through the morning hours at all TAF sites. Coverage of showers/storms this afternoon/evening appears to be much less than previous days. Probabilities for terminal impacts from convection is 10 to 25% and precludes the addition for PROB30s in the 06z TAFs at this time (best times will be anywhere between 17z and 23z). Looking beyond 00z Sat, the overall pattern will remain largely unchanged into early next week, with a risk for early-morning sub- VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms each afternoon into the evening.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Swiggett SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Swiggett/Hartfield