Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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006 FXUS62 KRAH 252331 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 731 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will extend into the region through Friday. Meanwhile, a storm system will develop over the sub-tropical Atlantic and drift toward the Southeast U.S. coast through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Tranquil weather pattern to persist through tonight. While an area of high pressure at the surface will extend across central NC tonight, a weak mid level s/w will pass to our north. Little in the way of sensible weather will be affected by this feature, though the mid layers of the atmosphere will become more moist compared to today. This may result in patches of scattered- broken stratocu later tonight, mainly across the northern Piedmont. A modifying air mass will result in overnight temperatures a tad warmer than the previous night. Min temps in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday Night/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Summer like weather pattern will prevail across central NC Thursday and Friday. Bermuda high pressure will extend across central NC, maintaining a very warm and mostly dry forecast. The addition of mid level moisture tonight, strong heating, and presence of a weak lee side trough may be enough to trigger/support an isolated thunderstorm during peak heating on Thursday. The convective threat will mainly be confined to the Piedmont, as a modest mid level cap will inhibit convective development over the rest of the forecast area. Similar conditions probable Friday afternoon. Low level thicknesses around 1415m (+/- 4m) will support afternoon temperatures well above normal, with max temps in the 85-90 degree range. Continue modification of the atmosphere will result in relatively warm overnight temperatures in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... The general overall pattern for the weekend and into early next week will be characterized aloft by a ridge over the SE U.S. and a trough over the Midwest. A low pressure system in the mid to upper levels will develop off the FL coast beneath the ridge. At the surface, the high that was ridging westward into the Carolinas will be pushed northward and largely out of the region by the developing low as it moves north-northwestward along the FL coast. The aforementioned low pressure system will develop off the FL coast Friday night into Saturday and could develop tropical or sub- tropical characteristics as it moves northwestward. Though there are still plenty of model differences on the evolution of this low, there is fairly good model agreement and thus high confidence that it will develop. The general track is expected to take it NW toward the SE U.S. coast on Saturday resulting in an increase in moisture, clouds, and chances for convection through the day and into the overnight hours. Beyond Saturday, the low could remain near the SC/GA coast through the remainder of the period. The exact coverage, location, and timing of convection is dependent on how the low evolves. However, the convection is expected to be largely diurnal in nature, with the highest chances in the aft/eve and a lull overnight. Rainfall amounts through the weekend and early next week will depend on the path of the low and given the uncertainty of that, will hold off speculation of totals for now. Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Wednesday, with the potential for some mid 80s to creep back into the SW by Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Memorial Day/...
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As of 730 PM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area again this evening and this is expected to be the case through much of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight with some high level clouds overhead. After sunrise Thursday winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10 knots. Most of the period should be precipitation free however there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms at the triad terminals at the very end of the period between 21-00z. Have included a PROB30 group in the TAFs at this time for those locations. Confidence in this occurring is low to medium at this time. Long term: More chances for sub-VFR conditions for the end of the week as a plume of moisture moves in from the southwest Atlantic that could affect the area for several days.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Ellis

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