Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250453 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1255 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 910 PM FRIDAY... WELL DEFINED S/W CROSSING SC EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST (TOO SLOW) PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO DRIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE. IR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS CIRRUS SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS UPPER DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO WANE. AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS SEWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION...EXPECT THIS DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND TO CONTINUE. UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH UPPER 30S HIGHLY PROBABLE AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION... MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN. THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT... FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL RECORDED IN 1919. SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC... AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR LATITUDE YET. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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