Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220031 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 831 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A mid to upper level trough will linger over the eastern Carolinas, while weakening, through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will otherwise extend south across the middle Atlantic states through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM Thursday... A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. The most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms clustered around Johnston, Wilson and Wayne counties is coincident with the cold core low with H5 temps around -14C. Away from the upper core, coverage will remain isolated to widely scattered. Can`t rule out marginally severe hail ranging from dime to quarter size along with the potential for one or two trees down from the collapse of a core. Otherwise, convection will fade with loss of heating. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, with the potential for patchy fog in areas that see any appreciable rainfall through the remainder of the evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM Thursday... Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across eastern NC as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong mid-upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the Great Lake region. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm across the far SE zones. Otherwise, it will be dry on Friday with persistence in temperatures ranging from mid 80s NW to upper 80s SE. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well offshore. Mid to high cloudiness will spread westward across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearing by Thursday as Maria continues to recurve northeast. An airmass change is finally on the horizon, but slightly beyond this extended package...stay tuned as next weekend`s forecast comes into focus. In the meantime, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows mostly in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 830 PM Thursday... High pressure ridging south into NC will result in mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, although patchy fog will be possible late tonight-early Fri morning, especially in areas that received rain this past afternoon - most notably near RWI and RDU. Outlook: Patchy radiation fog will be possible each morning, mainly at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions -under the influence of high pressure centered north of our region- otherwise anticipated through early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...MWS

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