Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281859 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH COLD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP LOWS DROP TO NEAR RECORDS AS LOW TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HERE IN THE RALEIGH OFFICE WE HAVE STARTED OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SPRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON APRIL 5. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO BEGIN THE TEMPERATURE TURNAROUND AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT STILL A COOL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH TO SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL GET OVERTAKEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE PHASED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE CUT-OFF FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING JUST ENOUGH OF ITS OWN PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NW-SE CLEARING LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM MID 30S TO AROUND 40...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS ERODE...WITH A SLOW RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG 20-25KT DOWN SLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM...A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A DRY BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US. CURRENTLY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME WAA SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON RAIN CHANCES...BUT GENERALLY WARMER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SWLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WEAKENING TO 3-7 KT AFTER SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS (MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN) WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW. RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GSO 20-1966 RDU 20-1966 FAY 24-1982 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042- 043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...VINCENT CLIMATE...RAH

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