Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241857 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into central North Carolina tonight. The front will drift slowly southeast toward the coast Sunday, and offshore Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... Moderately unstable air mass over central NC this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints near 70-lower 70s. This yields MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range across the southern Piedmont. Stout mid level flow contributing to effective bulk shear on the order of 35-40kts. Scattered convection now occurring across the southern Piedmont and this activity should continue to expand and intensify through the rest of the afternoon. Another area of convection will develop over the nw Piedmont just ahead of the slow moving sfc cold front. This activity will eventually emerge with the convection across the southern Piedmont by early evening. Thus plan to have likely PoPs across much of the western and southern sections through early evening, trending to small chance across the far northeast. After 00Z, bulk of convection will likely lie across the southern and eastern sections of the area, with PoPs diminishing across the northwest. Main severe weather threat through 02Z will be the potential for damaging wet microbursts with cells that possess strong updrafts. Not overly concerned with large hail as freezing level quite high at 16k ft. Still, cells that have rotating updrafts aloft may produce marginally large hail. Sfc cold front will enter the nw Piedmont early-mid evening, then drift slowly se overnight. Expect frontal passage in the vicinity of KFAY just prior to daybreak. Expect isolated showers to occur in vicinity of the front through the overnight. NW flow behind the front will begin to advect drier air into the region after midnight in the nw Piedmont, and elsewhere by daybreak. Little change required to the near term forecast. Min temps will vary from the mid 60s NW to the low-mid 70s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Subsidence behind the exiting frontal system and deep wly flow will lead to stable and drier conditions. A shower or two will be possible south of Goldsboro-Fayetteville line Sunday morning as the sfc cold front slowly exits the region. While it will remain warm Sunday afternoon with temps in the 85-90 degree range, lower dewpoints will aid to make it feel less oppressive. Drier air will continue to filter into central NC Sunday night, leading to mostly clear skies. Min temps 60-65 across the Piedmont to the upper 60s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region. Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s, with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. A more pronounced mid/upper level disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Surface high pressure will move across the area Wednesday and set up shop offshore Thursday through Saturday. This will result in maximum temperatures Wednesday and Thursday afternoon in the middle to upper 80s, with upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday and Saturday afternoon. As the airmass becomes increasingly moist and unstable, the chance for afternoon and evening convection will return by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across central NC this afternoon ahead of a cold front. These showers and storms will cause MVFR/briefly IFR parameters and will affect all TAF sites primarily between 20Z-01Z. The threat for convection will decrease in vicinity of the Triad by 01Z, and near KRDU by 02Z. the possibility of showers and an isolated thunderstorm will persist in the vicinity of KRWI and KFAY through 07Z. The cold front will drift sewd across central NC overnight through Sunday morning. The passage of the front will be noted by the sfc winds veering from the southwest to a north northwest direction. Drier air behind the front will lead to improving aviation conditions. VFR parameters are expected across central NC Sunday afternoon through Thursday. The exception will be Tuesday when an upper disturbance passes overhead, triggering a few showers and possibly MVFR ceilings. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD/Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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