Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230636 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 235 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY... FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST- MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...KRD/BLS

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